[2025] RES-urrection Ideas

[LordLittlebutt]

I know there's been talk of RES coming back, and I've read the diary entries I could find. Wanted to start some discussion given the IRL v balance concerns.

The published model had 20% previous season, 20% current season, 50% affinity, and 10% coach's history.

I've played around a little and want to present a strawman that is ~35% prior season, ~25% current season, and 40% coach (mostly due to the Reputation addition with the transfer portal). Affinities are then added if they match for the player being recruited.

Previous season: +2 points for each regular season win, no tracking conf v non-conf, +5 if the team made a bowl game/CFP appearance (results don't matter), +5 if team won a bowl (CFP/non-CFP) or gained a CFP bye. +5 if the team made it to the CFP semifinals (only 4 teams get this).  The conf/non-conf is addressed mostly with the CFP appearance points.

Current season:  +2 points for each regular season win, only starts counting after Week 2 of the season (too early to tell & evens things out in the early recruiting weeks), but counts all wins accumulated after Week 2 games.

Coaches impact covers three areas: Reputation, Overall Win% and Stability/Improvement.

      Reputation is +1 point for every 5 Reputation (Reputation 100 is worth 20 points, 120 is worth 24 points, 82 is worth 16.4 points, etc.)

      Overall Win % - needs to track to Coach's (not team's) win career win%. Coach's Win% * 10 = number of points gained (50% = 5 points, 66% = 6.6 points, etc.)

      Stability/Improvement - if the Coach has not changed teams in the last 2 seasons +10 points, if the Coach’s career winning % is > 60% +5 points with a change, if  >70% +10 points with a change, otherwise no points.

 

This is the base RES score.

 

Affinity matches then get added where there are fits for players being recruited: +15 points for a single affinity match, +20 additional points if there is a second affinity match.

 

This point total is converted to a % modifier applied to points spent on recruits for that week. The score would be published on the Roster Page and the recruiting pages in the interface. Would be known to coaches prior to the start of recruiting and would not change until after games are played in Week 2 of the season.

 

Examples (assuming all Coaches at 100 Reputation for this season start):

 

Generic 50% Team/Coach, bowl loss, stable

   Previous Season = 17 points

      6 wins = 12 points, bowl appearance (loss) +5

   Current Season = 0 points until after Wk2 games, then +2 per win  

   Coach = 25

      Reputation = 10 points, Overall win% 50% x 10 = 5, Stable +10

 

   Base RES = 42, after Wk2 games goes up by 2 for each win in the current season

        20 points applied to a player with 0 matching affinities would net 8.4 points

   If targeting a player with 1 matching affinity 42 + 15 = 57

        20 points applied to a player with 1 matching affinity would net 11.4 points.

   If targeting a player with 2 matching affinities = 77

        20 points applied to a player with 2 matching affinities would net 15.4 points.

 

 

Generic 66% Team/Coach, bowl win, stable

   Previous Season = 26 points

      8 wins = 16 points, bowl appearance +5, bowl win +5

   Current Season = 0 points until after Wk2 games, then +2 per win  

   Coach = 26.666

      Reputation = 10 points, Overall win% 66% x 10 = 6.666, Stable +10

 

   Base RES = 52.666, after Wk2 games goes up by 2 for each win in the current season

        20 points applied to a player with 0 matching affinities would net 10.532 points

   If targeting a player with 1 matching affinity 52.666 + 15 = 67.666

        20 points applied to a player with 1 matching affinity would net 13.533 points.

   If targeting a player with 2 matching affinities = 87.666

        20 points applied to a player with 2 matching affinities would net 17.533 points.

 

 

Generic 75% Team/Coach, bowl win, stable

   Previous Season = 28 points

      9 wins = 18 points, bowl appearance +5, bowl win +5

   Current Season = 0 points until after Wk2 games, then +2 per win  

   Coach = 27.5

      Reputation = 10 points, Overall win% 75% x 10 = 7.5, Stable +10

 

   Base RES = 55.5, after Wk2 games goes up by 2 for each win in the current season

        20 points applied to a player with 0 matching affinities would net 11 points

   If targeting a player with 1 matching affinity 55.5 + 15 = 70.5

        20 points applied to a player with 1 matching affinity would net 14.1 points.

   If targeting a player with 2 matching affinities = 90.5

        20 points applied to a player with 2 matching affinities would net 18.1 points.

 

 

BAYL (Best case (?)), Assuming BAYL had same coach since 2021

   Previous Season = 39 points

      12 wins = +24 points, CFP appearance +5, CFP bye +5, CFP semis +5

   Current Seasons = 0 points until after Wk2 games, then +2 per win

   Coach = 27.759

      Reputation = 10 points (100/20=5), Overall win% = 77.59% x 10 = 7.759, Stable +10

 

   Base RES = 66.759, after Wk2 games goes up by 2 for each win in the current season

        20 points applied to a player with 0 matching affinities would net 13.352 points.

   If targeting a player with 1 matching affinity 66.759 + 15 = 81.759

        20 points applied to a player with 1 matching affinity would net 16.352 points.

   If targeting a player with 2 matching affinities = 101.759

        20 points applied to a player with 2 matching affinities would net 20.352 points.

 

This would mean that fewer points would make it on recruits each week. Either Coaches change their expectations, or changes in signing thresholds, max points to players each week, or a change in points available each week could result.

 

 

 

[smackemz]

A nearly 40% difference between Generic 50% Team/Coach, bowl loss, stable and Baylor seems overly harsh imo.  

It already takes a significant amount of time to rebuild a roster - personally, I'm not a fan of making it that much harder to accomplish.  

I can't remember exactly what the band was for the original RES formula, but was always sold as not being overly punitive. 

[tsweezy]

Yeah I think there’s always a fine line between making things “realistic” (good schools get good players) and “fair” (everyone can be on the same field. I think the current RES system was almost worked backwards from wanting a +/- 20% band and I think you’d almost have to do the same and set the biggest discrepancy you’re ok with and go from there.

Also what’s the rationale for pulling affinities into RES system instead of leaving them separate as now?

[LordLittlebutt]

1 hour ago, smackemz said:

A nearly 40% difference between Generic 50% Team/Coach, bowl loss, stable and Baylor seems overly harsh imo.  

It already takes a significant amount of time to rebuild a roster - personally, I'm not a fan of making it that much harder to accomplish.  

I can't remember exactly what the band was for the original RES formula, but was always sold as not being overly punitive. 

Add 20 or 25 to every team's Base RES to diminish the variance (?)

[LordLittlebutt]

53 minutes ago, tsweezy said:

Also what’s the rationale for pulling affinities into RES system instead of leaving them separate as now?

IDK, it was in the Dev Diary that way

[TuscanSota]

Below is the working document that @alexfall862 had when he put together the current RES formula. The way that RES works right now, is that everyone has a base of 0.8 (or 80%) as the floor, with the modifiers like previous overall record, current overall record, postseasons success, and coaching record all weighted and placed within the 20% that's calculated and remaining.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19ODPgKfIuSVbX3wYJFw4YEumhJfZkz8TMmWMwEi-jLE/edit?usp=sharing

It's a very math-y formula, which is a little hard to describe in each step if I'm being completely honest. I haven't taken a look at it quite yet, but my plan for this season would be to turn it back on in it's current iteration before making any changes.

There will be some changes to RES specifically for FCS schools, but it's to help balance out competition between FBS and FCS schools to make things a bit more relatively realistic.

 

If there are any changes to RES outside of FCS, it will likely be done after this upcoming season. I'm open to proposals or adjustments; though I will ask that any change to RES be done in small iterations.

Going from the 80/20 formula in current RES to 60/40 will make results in recruiting very spread out. If anything, I would go from 80/20 to 70/30, or maybe look into how we provide and calculate bonuses for affinities.

 

I do like the idea of bringing over portal reputation though as part of the RES formula.

[LordLittlebutt]

The replies have been almost exclusively focused on the scale involved, Tuscan's 80/20, 70/30, 60/40 line sums that up pretty well. BUT that is the easiest part to manage/change: reduce the points in the formula, add a base REC set of points to reduce the variance (increase the denominator) - which would  also be an excellent tool to adjust the effective points being applied v the signing thresholds to keep the same timing experience as 2024 (or modify if needed), and/or just normalize the data to the mean. This is simple to do to get to the desired level/scale of impact.
The way the original post was written with the math and examples clearly drives this, but I want to focus the other portions, and before implementation seems like the best time so the decision makers can review the input and decide accordingly.

Broadly - are the correct items being considered? Is anything missing? Is the proportion correct between them? Forget scale, that can be easily manipulated. Seems like a  mix of past season success, current season wins and Coach attributes come into play in real life and should in the sim. Are they the right ones in the right mix? I offered a different relative weighting than what's had been documented.

More specifically:

Should Coaches be able to see all teams' RES score every week (since they will change during the season)?

Should current season W/L be an all or nothing modifier at week 0/1 with a W or an L? Should there be a period (some number of weeks) before the current season modifier kicks in?

Should a Coach moving to a new team matter? How?  Seems like a winning coach going to a program that hasn't has as much success should help with recruiting, but will croots fear another move?

Should recruiting suffer at a school where a successful coach has left and AI then have a negative modifier?

Should a new coach get a boost taking over from AI at a school?

Should Reputation, which is completely controlled by the Coach's own actions, be part of the RES?

Should a double-affinity count more than 2 x single affinities? (Why can't a croot have 2 of the same affinity? He REALLY wants to play in front of large crowds, small town, close to home, etc).

Should recruiting class score have an impact on later signing recruits? I'm sure it does IRL, but seems to make the rich richer.

I'm sure there are others....

 

 

 

 

[LordLittlebutt]

I'm requesting that teams making the CFP get the same RES points as conference champions