National Championship Game Prep - Part 1

[tsweezy]

I thought it'd be fun to do a little sequence of articles showcasing the two Natty teams and what kind of thoughts go into planning for a game of this magnitude against this good of an opponent. @Vivid will do his own series or I'll beat him up. Anyways the real meaty bits won't get published until Thurs/Fri after the game has actually been locked in but this could be a fun article to set the stage and give some background about the teams.

 

HISTORY LESSONS (yay just like school)

So let's do a quick throwback and find out where these teams came from.

2021

Inaugural season, it was tough to judge how good teams were going to be, what kind of gameplanning to use, and every player was generated, not recruited. Dev Diary 1 details how team rosters were seeded. Basically the top bucket teams got extra dibs for good players and the "seed" is used more so to differentiate within the bucket. Baylor was generated as a bucket 1 team, and should be around ~23rd in roster talent. Tennessee was generated as a bucket 2 team and should be around ~29th. Interestingly I did have Travis Knebel ranked as the #5 overall QB in the sim as a true sophomore that season (he would end up redshirting). I also had a very rudimentary team talent ranking at the time which is fun to look back at. 

 

Anyways, the inaugural season was exciting for both teams. Baylor went 9-3, then beat Texas in the Big 12 CG to earn a berth in the playoff as the #9 seed. They would lose in the first round to North Texas, 32-28 finishing the year 10-4 and a top-10 team in the nation. They had a great offense, #12/13 in points and yards, and a mid defense (although they led the country in sacks with 26 on the year). QB Evan Cooper passed for 5000 yards but nobody on the team really stood out for awards. Jehu Ginn was also 2nd in the nation in tackles and would go on to be a top-5 NFL draft selection to CHI (how's he doing now?)

For Tennessee, the season was a little less successful. They also finished 9-3 but the wins were much narrower and they did not make the conference championship. They were ranked #18 and instead went to the Texas bowl where they pasted Kansas State by 30 to finish 10-3 on the season. Stats-wise not much special. They were 5th in passing yards allowed on the year which was really solid. QB Cedric Marsh threw for a good amount of yards and TDs but was also 4th in the country with 20 INTs. WR Ray-Ray Thompson also put up some good numbers and would be a first round NFL draft selection.

In terms of recruiting, Tennessee had the #1 recruiting class in the country with 18 4-stars (10 B overalls), and 1 5-star (Brandon Savage) while Baylor had the #10 class with 3 4-stars and 2 5-stars (Prochnow and Cole)

 

2022

As 2022 started, the teams profiles had risen a bit, but the roster talent wasn't much changed. I had Baylor as the 18th best roster, headlined by Knebel getting his first start and Tennessee with the 45th roster (we kinda botched our redshirt decisions in 2021). The only players from that first recruiting class who started were LB Cole for Baylor (didn't do much) and QB Savage for Tennessee (was pretty key). 

 

Anyways, this was our first look at (So) QB Travis Knebel. Baylor had a bit of a letdown year (for them anyways, amazing year for almost any other school). They went only 8-4 in the regular season but had the tiebreaker over Kansas State and got into the CCG anyways where they defeated TCU a week after losing to them and won their 2nd consecutive Big 12 title (in a fun twist game where Knebel played RB and Gronkowski had a good QB game as the starter). At 9-4 they made the playoffs as the 10 seed where they once again fell in the first round, this time to eventual champion Alabama 10-37. They didn't have a ton of big name stars yet, and only had 1 draft selection, RB Dietrich Smith in the 3rd round. 

Tennessee meanwhile was the first sim team to start a true freshman QB, rolling with Savage from the jump. They were however more of a run first team behind eventual top-10 draft pick C Noah Prater and Heisman finalist RB Aldrick Ynoa. They went 10-2 in the regular season, winning the SEC East before losing the rematch to Alabama in the championship game. They still made the playoffs at 10-3 as the 8th seed and beat #9 Michigan State 40-34 in the first round, then #1 seed Texas State 24-16. They would lose in the semifinals to Western Michigan 26-34. As mentioned, Prater and Ynoa were the stars of the year along with WR Alex Henderson who also was drafted in the first round.

In recruiting, Tennessee signed the #1 class with 2 5-stars and 11 4-stars while Baylor had the #3 class with 2 5-stars and 10 4-stars. 

 

2023

Last season, the teams saw a marked rise in their roster talent. Baylor was up to #8 and Tennessee #13 in team talent ranks. 

Baylor's season was about the same as their standard. They went 9-3 and for the first season missed out on a conference title game berth. They still made the playoffs as the 8 seed and won their first playoff game 31-21 against Colorado. In the quarterfinals they had a rematch against TCU who they'd beaten in the regular season. This time however TCU would beat them 24-37 en route to a National Title appearance. They had a top-15 offense and one of the best defenses in the country by ypg. Their superstar was SS Garrett Smith who went first overall in the draft.

 

Tennessee meanwhile had a breakthrough year. They went 12-0 in the regular season winning the East before dropping the conference championship to Auburn. They maintained a #4 seed and first round bye in the playoffs. In the quarterfinals they beat Marshall 34-24 before losing in the semifinals for the second year in a row, this time to TCU as well: 30-42.  The season was marked by an astounding offensive attack led by Savage and almost no run support, finishing second in ppg in sim history to USC by .17 and second in ypg. Brandon Savage also made history as the first non-senior to win the Heisman Trophy (as a true sophomore!)

In recruiting, Tennessee signed the #1 class with 6 5-stars and 6 4-stars. Baylor had the #26 class with 11 4-stars. 

 

2024

This season started with the highest expectations yet for both teams. They were preseason 1-2 in the polls, and all the way up to 3 and 7 in talent rankings.

As you can see, quite good at everything but with some bigger holes than other top teams, notably the line play for Tennessee and Baylor's secondary. 

The two teams absolutely mauled their schedules. Baylor went 12-0 behind Heisman Trophy winning QB Travis Knebel (who barely played any second halfs) winning by more than 30 ppg with the #3 offense in the country. Tennessee also cleared 30 points in average MOV with the number 1 offense heading into the natty and the Heisman runner-up in Savage. They went 11-1 in the regular season with a surprising double digit loss to UGA in Athens when their starting LT went down early. Both teams won their conferences and rather easily moved through the quarter and semifinals and will now be playing in each of their first national title appearances. This will be Travis's last game for the Bears as he is the HEAVY favorite per Vegas to go 1.1 in this upcoming draft, following Garrett Smith.

 

Who will win? Both teams have claims to be the face of college football: Baylor as the only program to go to the playoff all 4 years and soon to be back to back first overall picks. Or Tennessee with the best program W-L record and their third straight top-4 finish? Find out this Saturday evening at NRG stadium in Houston Texas!