[2025] Pierce's 2025 Mock Draft v1 - Midseason

[Piercewise1]

It’s that time again!

While some teams are still battling for 2024 supremacy, others are already looking to the 2025 NFL Draft as a source of forward momentum for their franchise. In that spirit, today I’m publishing my first mock draft!. There are so many things that can change between now and then – free agency, draft scouting, the combine, picks being traded – but I’ll make my best guesses with the information I have. The draft order is based on the standings after week 16.

On the team side I’ve made estimates for positions of need based on my analysis of their roster, factoring in age as well as talent level. I’ve listed all the team’s 1^st-round picks from the last two years – asterisks mark players acquired via trade. On the player side I’m relying a lot on stats, but behind the scenes I am referencing the estimated Overalls I created when I did my preseason SimCFB talent rankings. While I don’t announce those numbers directly, I’m making sure that I don’t give a first-round grade to, say, the 400^th ranked player in the class just because they had a big statistical season.

But enough explanations – let’s get to the picks!

 

1.01 – Arizona Cardinals
Team Needs: WR, TE, OT, OG, DE, OLB, FS
Recent 1sts: OT, CB

QB Travis Knebel, BAYL

I don’t care that the Cardinals have Patrick Johnson on the roster…and from the way the new management benched him, neither do they. You don’t tank your entire season to not pick the best player on the board, especially when he’s a quarterback. Knebel is the start of a huge rebuild and should get an entirely new offensive scheme installed around him. Hopefully the front office spends some of that $84M in cap space on a solid offensive line to protect him.

 

1.02 – Houston Texans
Team Needs: WR, TE, OT, DE, DT, OLB, ILB
Recent 1sts: QB, CB

OT Nathan Hungalu, BAMA

Speaking of protecting your young quarterback…Houston found some great value in 5^th round picks Luis Hernandez and Chris Reyes, but I think they can do even more for Maronde and Ryan Johnson. Hungalu can kick one of those guys inside (to replace OG Ernest Arellano, who’s 33 and in a contract year) and serve as a stalwart blind-size blocker for years to come. If the team feels confident in their current group, defensive line is also a major need.

 

1.03 – San Francisco 49ers
Team Needs: RB, C, DE, OLB, ILB, CB, FS, SS
Recent 1sts: QB, OT, WR

DE Omarius Beasley, OKLA

San Francisco ranks near the bottom of the league in yards allowed, so defense is the way to go here. Beasley accounted for 30 TFL and 13 sacks as a senior, forced 2 fumbles, and even came down with 3 interceptions! He’s a difference-maker for a team that desperately needs one, and should be effective against both the run (looking at division rival Seattle) and the pass (ditto Los Angeles).

 

1.04 – New Orleans Saints
Team Needs: QB, RB, WR, OT, OG, OLB, ILB, FS
Recent 1sts: CB, DT

WR Hayes Edwards, TENN

I’d fully support the team grabbing O’Koyea Landrum here, but they might be determined to stick with Ben Rivera after feeding him two years of Starter snaps. So instead I’ll predict they grab him a new weapon in Edwards. While some of his more absurd stats (25.7 yards per catch & 19 touchdowns) can be chalked up to Brandon Savage and that Air Raid offense, he still caught 78.5% of his targets. That’s a phenomenal performance, especially from a non-Possession archetype. The Saints’ current WR1 is a 65/6, so Edwards would be a huge long-term improvement.

 

1.05 – Kansas City Chiefs
Team Needs: OG, DE, ILB, CB, FS
Recent 1sts: WR, DT*, C, QB

CB Bobby Gonzalez, ODU

As a Ball Hawk, Gonzalez’s draft value could vary wildly depending on his combine performance. But if he tests well in zone coverage, he might hear his name being called very early on draft day. The Chiefs need as many good cornerbacks as they can carry on their roster, especially going against the Raiders twice a year. Gonzalez had 8 takeaways last year and 14 pass breakups, and could play nickel behind Benedict Deluna and Wei Bao until he outpaces the latter.

 

1.06 – Minnesota Vikings
Team Needs: OT, DE, FS
Recent 1sts: DT

OT Rodney Ladner, UNM

The Vikings paid handsomely to bring Herman Knott to Minnesota, so now they draft Ladner as a run mauler for the other side. Having these two bookends will give Ynoa and Oladipo the best chance to improve the Vikings poor run offense…or at least convince the front office to invest in someone new if they can’t deliver.

 

1.07 – Seattle Seahawks
Team Needs: TE, C, DE, CB, SS
Recent 1sts: RB, DT

OG Frank Valdes-Scantling, KSST

Top 10 is high for a guard, especially with last year’s 2^nd round pick Johnny Blach on the roster. But starter Luis Cruz has struggled, with only 1 pancake and 6 allowed sacks, and center isn’t great either. Meanwhile Valdes-Scantling notched 22 pancakes in under 800 snaps this year and his attributes look great. He’s a plug-and-play starter for a team that’s been depending on the run while they develop a Pocket passer.

 

1.08 – Buffalo Bills
Team Needs: RB, OG, C, DE, DT, OLB
Recent 1sts: OLB

RB Vontae Knebel, STAN

Michael Torgler will be 32 years old next season and isn’t much of a threat in the passing game; Knebel scored 32 touchdowns and caught 54 passes. Oh, and ran for over 2,400 yards. He’s a matchup nightmare for defensive coordinators and should fit in perfectly with Buffalo’s Air Raid aspirations, as long as he can learn to run in the snow.

 

1.09 – New England Patriots
Team Needs: RB, TE, OT, C, DE, OLB, ILB
Recent 1sts: WR, DT

DE Deiondre' Morales, IOWA

New England ranks near the bottom of the league in sacks, averaging just over 1 per game. In a scheme that thrives on edge rushers they’ve got a middling Run Stopper (67 OVR but with a malus) and a former 2^nd round pick from that initial ’22 class (62/3). Morales would be an immediate upgrade; he had 28 TFL and 12 sacks this year at Iowa. With the league starting to lean into blitzing and heavy QB pressure, he can help the Patriots catch up.

 

1.10 – Atlanta Falcons
Team Needs: RB, OT, CB
Recent 1sts: DT, WR

CB Mitch Forrest, TAMU

Atlanta is currently 30^th in passing yards allowed, and while playing Carolina twice a year isn’t helping, that’s far from the whole story. They need someone opposite Gregory Williams, and their current options are…okay (a 67/4 and a 61/2). Maybe they wait for those players to develop, but they could also make a big splash and grab the top Zone corner in the draft. I believe Forrest has a higher ceiling than the rest of their roster, and can spend time as a CB3/4 and on special teams to realize that potential.

 

1.11 – Indianapolis Colts
Team Needs: QB, RB, TE, C, DE, OLB, ILB, CB, FS
Recent 1sts: n/a

QB O’Koyea Landrum, GT

Indianapolis sold the farm for the rights to draft Rashaan Lyons (a young Pocket QB), then traded him for an aging Scrambler. Gary Freitag will be 35 and in the final year of his contract next season, if he comes back at all. So the Colts try again with Landrum, who was unstoppable last year with over 7,500 passing yards and 66 TDs. The ’25 class is already leagues beyond where the ’22 class was entering the pros, and Landrum will benefit from added features like a scheme boost. With targets like Daniel Elswick and Enrique Rodriguez at his disposal, I think he’ll mend some broken hearts in Indianapolis.

 

1.12 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team Needs: WR, OT, C, CB
Recent 1sts: DT, OT

WR Josh Gaudin, ND

Offensive tackle is definitely a possibility here; O-line play has been the through-line of the Buccaneer’s franchise story, both its rise and fall. But even a Power Run team needs a threat in the passing game, and currently Tampa’s receivers can’t catch a cold. Gaudin’s catch rate was 78% last year, and he averaged over 20 yards per reception. Not bad for an RZ archetype (which gets a scheme bonus in Power Run, by the way). Gaudin is a perfect match of both fit and need for the Bucs, and my model suggests that even this early he’s good value, too.

 

1.13 – Jacksonville Jaguars
Team Needs: RB, TE, DT, FS
Recent 1sts: ILB, CB, CB, OT

DT Jon Gore, UGA

Jacksonville knocked it out of the park last year with all 3 of their first-round picks, and I have them going defense yet again. Richard Smith (71/11) should be gone next year with his contract expired, and one no left is better than replacement-tier. Gore would bring some much-needed youth and explosiveness to the middle of that line; he logged 26 TFL last year and led all DTs in sacks with 16.  Jacksonville needs help stopping the run and pressuring the quarterback, so Gore is a great fit.

 

1.14 – Baltimore Ravens
Team Needs: OLB, ILB, CB, SS
Recent 1sts: OT, WR

ILB Quadree Weatherly, VT

Baltimore needs help at interior linebacker, and they’re currently running a scheme (Multiple Man) that puts two on the field in several formations. So there’s plenty of impact potential for Weatherly (or Austin Rosario, it’s a coin flip between them currently) who had 17 TFL for the Hokies. His 4 sacks might not look like much, but that’s as many as every Ravens linebacker put together!

 

1.15 – Pittsburgh Steelers
Team Needs: RB, WR, OT, C, ILB
Recent 1sts: OG, CB

WR Jamie McCoy, ECU

McCoy was targeted an absurd 154 times this year, catching 118 (76.6%) for over 2,000 yards and 19 touchdowns. Pittsburgh could use more playmakers in the passing game; after Paul Gurule they have two young draftees (Daniel Ennis III and Devontae McKinney) and a bunch of mid-60 vets. If the team has more confidence in their young players than I do, they could go offensive tackle or running back (see upcoming picks #16 and #20) but I think Spread Option has enough formations with 3-4 wideouts to give everyone some playing time.

 

1.16 – Philadelphia Eagles
Team Needs: RB, OT, OG, CB, SS
Recent 1sts: DE, ILB

OT Sean Rogers, BAMA

Alabama makes history with both starting tackles going in the first round. Rogers’ A+ college Potential should give a huge final boost to what are already some great attributes, and Philadelphia will have a huge need at the position whenever Kenneth Draper hangs up his cleats (he’s under contract through his age-35 season next year). Daryl Shaw was great value in the 4^th round (60/2), but with low snaps he might not get the progressions necessary to grow into a permanent starter.

 

1.17 – Chicago Bears
Team Needs: RB, WR, OG, DE, DT, OLB, FS
Recent 1sts: CB, WR

DE Lyndon Hart, TXST

Andres Garcia (64/4) and Jawun Hilton (60/2) have overperformed relative to their Overall scores with a combined 28 TFL and 12.5 sacks, even though the team as a whole ranks near the bottom of the league in those metrics. So maybe defensive end is covered…or maybe the Bears push the 295-pound Garcia inside, draft Hart, and have the most terrifying defensive line in the league for the next five years. Hart had 19 sacks on his own last year and would get a scheme boost as well, so this looks like a great landing spot for him.

 

1.18 – Las Vegas Raiders
Team Needs: TE, OT, DE, DT, OLB, CB
Recent 1sts: ILB

OLB Chi Chi Colome, UNC

Colome can sack the quarterback and force turnovers, two places the Raiders really need to improve. The pool of elite linebackers is pretty small this year (again), so getting the first OLB off the board who’s also a scheme fit is a real treat. And the timing is great, with Larry Bushong (73/8) finishing up his contract. Last year the Raiders drafted Zunino in the first round, and he’s already their leading tackler. Plus he’s got a great name – what more could you ask for?

 

1.19 – Detroit Lions
Team Needs: WR, TE, OG, OLB, ILB
Recent 1sts: RB, FS, OT

WR Ryan Lydon, CHAR

Victor Villamar will be 33 next year and coming off a rotator cuff injury; Thomas Bullock might reach 70 OVR before he stops progressing. Randall Hansen needs some weapons closer to his age bracket and talent level, which is where Lydon comes in. The 21-year-old caught 73.1% of his targets this year for 1,500+ yards and 16 touchdowns, and he’s a scheme match for what the Lions are currently running. This is a great year to need a receiver, so Detroit grabs one.

 

1.20 – New York Giants
Team Needs: RB, FB, OG, DE, OLB
Recent 1sts: WR, OT

RB Richaun Alsadek, NEB

John Knighten has helped the Giants in their return to relevance, but he’s 34 and in a contract year. Drafting Alsadek would immediately address that looming need and provide a smooth transition for Lamar Johnson (or Wilfredo Joseph if the former doesn’t receive or accept an extension) at the helm of that run-heavy offense.  

 

1.21 – Kansas City Chiefs (via Tennessee)
Team Needs: TE, OG, DE, ILB, CB, FS
Recent 1sts: WR, C, DT*, QB, (CB)

ILB Austin Rosario, TEX

Old School uses a lot of two-ILB sets, and currently the Chiefs only have two ILBs on the roster. And both are low 60s without much room to grow, so it’s a huge need. If either Rosario or Weatherly (#14 above) fall this far, the team should absolutely draft them. Rosario’s player card is a sea of A grades, so he should be able to get on the field quickly and have an immediate impact.

 

1.22 – Los Angeles Chargers
Team Needs: WR, OLB, ILB, FS
Recent 1sts: DE, OT, C, OT

WR Chris Fleer, UNC

OLB is a big need too, but the deep class at receiver means there’s a lot of great value to be had. The Chargers only have one veteran scheme fit at the position (67/4 Jose Melero) and both Roshell and Davis are 30+ years old Red Zone archetypes that don’t share any schemes with Scrambler QBs. Meanwhile Fleer is a scheme fit who caught 75.2% of his 141 targets for over 2,000 yards and 24 TDs. It might take time to work him into the rotation, but I think it’s an investment worth making.

 

1.23 – Carolina Panthers
Team Needs: OLB, ILB, CB, SS
Recent 1sts: C, DE, RB, TE, DT, FS, WR

CB Ryan Herget, CMU

Carolina is currently 26^th in passing yards allowed, so it’s time to take that amazing draft prowess and focus on the defensive secondary. Herget has great attributes, great stats (13 PDs, 4 INTs as a senior), and he matches the Man Cover approach that the Panthers use. Currently the team has a group of mid-60s players that have fair cover scores, but no one with a high ceiling other than star Andrzej Harris. Herget can be that guy if he gets time to develop.

 

1.24 – Carolina Panthers (via NY Jets)
Team Needs: OLB, ILB, CB, SS
Recent 1sts: C, DE, RB, TE, DT, FS, WR, (CB)

SS James Wilson, ODU

Wilson continues the theme of drafting to stop the pass. Carolina’s current strong safeties are Run Stoppers, which is proving to be a liability when defending the deep ball. Wilson is much more of a Cover guy, although he’s not afraid to mix it up on the line of scrimmage (see: 5 TFL and 2 sacks). That versality makes him a strong prospect in this draft, and there are a lot of teams with a need at his position. So I think he’s a solid pick this late in the first round. 

 

1.25 – Miami Dolphins
Team Needs: TE, OT, OG, DE, OLB, ILB, CB, SS
Recent 1sts: WR, OT

OG Cody Jordan, NCST

Hammonds has taken way too many sacks (74) for a franchise quarterback, so the Dolphins continue to improve his protection through the draft. Jordan was a wall at NC State, and he’ll pair nicely with last year’s first-round pick Mike Hubbard. Thank you for your service Donnell Burns (72/10), collect your final paycheck and don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

 

1.26 – Cleveland Browns
Team Needs: WR, OG, DE, CB, SS
Recent 1sts: OT, OLB

WR Jose Colabello, UCLA

The Browns have been one-dimensional on offense and need a spark in the passing game. Enter Jose Colabello, who caught 91 passes for the Bruins this season. While his yardage numbers (both in total and per catch) aren’t as eye-popping as some earlier picks, he still managed a 71.1% catch ratio and 14.7 yards per reception, with 10 touchdowns. Add in 1,400+ yards in the return game and you’ve got yourself a playmaker.

 

1.27 – Green Bay Packers
Team Needs: WR, DE, ILB, CB
Recent 1sts: CB, TE

DE John Walters, ULL

Defensive end is one of the Packers’ few immediate needs, with Steve Lucas (62/3) currently the best prospect at DE2. Walters has a much higher ceiling, and he’s carved up offensive linemen this year to the tune of 29 TFL and 12 sacks. For a team that needs big run-stuffing bodies up front, Walters is a great choice.

 

1.28 – Dallas Cowboys
Team Needs: OG, OLB, ILB, SS
Recent 1sts: WR

SS Joshua Martin, MIAO

4-Man front utilizes two Strong Safeties most of the time, and the Cowboys are running with a 64/6 starter and a backup OLB. They need a long-term solution at the position, and I believe Martin can provide it. Currently he and James Wilson are 1 and 1A in my book, so either should be worthy of a first-round pick with potential to bloom into a long-term starter.

 

1.29 – Washington Commanders (via Cincinnati)
Team Needs: n/a
Recent 1sts: n/a

DT Terry Kalis, FAU

The Commanders don’t have “needs” the same way us poverty franchises do; their biggest challenges are salary cap space and regression. With a rare first round pick in hand, they can focus on positions with aging starters where a young draftee could sit and develop before entering the lineup. Defensive tackle is a great example – their scheme requires two starters in all formations, and the current DT2 is a 74/9 backed up by several replacement-level benchwarmers. Kalis could be the future at that position – a scheme fit who recorded 30 TFL and 8 sacks as a senior at FAU.

 

1.30 – Los Angeles Rams
Team Needs: C, OLB, SS
Recent 1sts: n/a

OLB Chander Lamb, BYU

That offensive line is getting older, so depending on how the first round progresses I could see them taking a lineman at basically any position. But this season they’ve put 4 linebackers on the field most of the time and gotten a grand total of 4.5 sacks out of that second level, so I have them taking an edge rusher. Lamb is an A+ pass rusher who should provide an extra dimension for that defense, especially with the current sim lean toward pass rush to combat deep passes.

 

1.31 – New York Giants (via Denver)
Team Needs: RB, FB, OG, DE, OLB
Recent 1sts: WR, OT, (RB)

DE Miguel Eifert, CONN

Jeremy Pruitt will be 32 next year and Michael Waldo has peaked at 68 OVR, so the time is right for the Giants to draft and develop a future starter. Eifert is the highest Run Stopper left on my current board, with 29 TFL and 8 sacks to his name last year. If he rolls well on pro Potential he should be ready to step in by the time Pruitt decides to retire.

 

1.32 – Arizona Cardinals (via Washington)
Team Needs: WR, TE, OT, OG, DE, OLB, FS
Recent 1sts: OT, CB, (QB)

WR Jake Bolden, UCF

Having acquired their franchise quarterback of the future, the Cardinals grab a receiver to develop alongside him. Bolden hauled in 81 passes for 1,189 yards and 11 touchdowns at UCF, which doesn’t sound like much until you look at the rest of the team’s abysmal stats – Bolden was that offense. He’s got great attributes, so if he proves it at the combine he could hear his name called on day 1. If the Cardinals would rather have the top tight end instead of the 7^th wide receiver, Taylor Allen (UCLA) or Torrey Barbato (ND) would be worthy selections here as well.

 

That’s it for my initial picks! Who do you think was the biggest reach? Who’s missing? How would you feel if your team ended up with the player listed? Sound off in the comments!

[SageBow]

Two OL predictions and one QB prediction, man so far Eagles offense getting some H8. PROVE THEM WRONG POOL

[kwheele]

hmmm, interesting omission