[2024] B1G Pre-Week 14 Deep Dive

[BabaYaga]

We are now past Week 13 of the SimCFB season and the conference race is the still the tightest in the country. The Big Ten now has 18 teams, without divisions, an unbalanced schedule, and STILL haven’t announced how the tie breaking procedures will work for the IRL 2024 when inevitably there will be five teams tied for the top of the conference at the end of the year.

This might be an exercise in futility, however, I wanted to piece together how the SimCFB Big Ten standings are shaping up and who we might see at the end of the year in the B1G title game. I have decided to use what I think might be the first two steps in the tie breaking procedure (but this could be completely wrong if the Big Ten actually announces their tie breaking procedures in the next six weeks which I think is likely.)

Those first two steps are:

1 - Head to Head results

2 - Conference opponents win percentage

So let’s dive into the standings to see who still has a shot to make our lives a living hell and create the worst scenario possible of having 9 teams tied for first in the conference standings at the end of the season. Currently, you will need either 2 or 3 conference losses to make the Big Ten title game - and even with 3 losses, you need some luck.

 

Mathematically Eliminated from the B1G Title Game

Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Oregon, Penn State, Rutgers, UCLA, Washington

 

Eliminated from the B1G Title Game and Will Not be Bowling

Washington - 3-8 (2-6)
Oregon - 4-7 (2-6)
Rutgers - 3-8 (2-6)
Northwestern - 3-8 (2-6)
Minnesota - 3-8 (2-6)
Michigan State - 3-8 (2-6)
Iowa - 4-7 (3-5)
Not much to say on these seven teams. They all will be looking to make another run next year, but the future doesn't look great for them.

Must Win or They Will Sit at Home Without a Bowl Game

Penn State - 5-6 (4-4)
Penn State is taking on Maryland this weekend in a game they must win if they want to get to a bowl game this year. A 5-7 season would be a disappointment but a 6-6 season, with a chance at 7 wins, isn't all that bad with how bleak things looked a few weeks ago.

Bowling...But Won't Make the B1G Title Game

UCLA - 8-4 (5-4)
UCLA is done for the year and they ran into a gauntlet in Big Ten conference play. They lost four games in conference play while going 3-0 in the non-conference. UCLA will get a bowl game but they will be on the outside looking in for the B1G title game.

 

Must Win or They are Eliminated from the B1G Title Game

Michigan - 6-5 (5-3)
Maryland - 7-4 (5-3)
Indiana - 7-4 (5-3)
Wisconsin - 7-4 (5-3)
Ohio State - 7-4 (5-3)
These five teams are all going to be in a bowl game and they must win if they want to make it into the B1G title game. They need two of the 2-loss teams to lose this week, however, and that won't be an easy feat. Just win - and you have a chance.

Already Locked in Tied 2nd but Need to Hope for Some Magic

USC - 7-4 (6-3)
USC is done with their conference slate and they are going to be sitting and waiting to see if they can get into the B1G title game. They will need some carnage ahead of them to happen...but they have a shot.
 

Control Their Own Destiny for B1G Title Game

Illinois - 7-4 (6-2)
Purdue - 8-3 (6-2)
Nebraska - 9-2 (6-2)
These three teams all need to win to secure a chance at the B1G title game. If one of these teams drop a game this weekend it is going to be a tough road through the tiebreakers to get into the B1G title game. Just win, baby.

 

Who Could be Mathematically Eliminated From the B1G Title Game in Week 14?

I mean, theoretically everyone, right?

Who Could Clinch A Share of First Place in the Big Ten in Week 14?

Again, everyone with 3 losses or less could tie for first.

B1G Elimination/Clinch Scenarios in Week 14

Same as last week. Two-loss teams need to win, three-loss teams need to not lose.

However, if all 3 teams in 1st place win this week - Purdue would be the odd man out via tiebreakers.

 

Week 14 Big Ten Schedule

Saturday Morning

Illinois 7-4 (6-2) @ Northwestern 3-8 (2-6)

Nebraska 9-2 (6-2) @ Iowa 4-7 (3-5)

Rutgers 3-8 (2-6) @ Michigan State 3-8 (2-6)

Saturday Afternoon

Purdue 8-3 (6-2) @ Indiana 7-4 (5-3)

Minnesota 3-8 (2-6) @ Wisconsin 7-4 (5-3)

Saturday Evening

Maryland 7-4 (5-3) @ Penn State 5-6 (4-4)

Michigan 6-5 (5-3) @ Ohio State 7-4 (5-3)

Notre Dame 10-1 @ USC 7-4 (6-3)

Saturday Night

Washington 3-8 (2-6) @ Oregon 4-7 (2-6)

Bye Week

UCLA 7-4 (6-3)

 

B1G Bowl Eligible Teams

Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue, UCLA, USC, Wisconsin

B1G Teams Eliminated from a Bowl Game

Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Oregon, Rutgers, Washington
 

BabaYaga’s Unscientific B1G Title Game Prediction

Nebraska vs Illinois

Edited July 26 by BabaYaga