[2024] One Expert's Predictions for the Extension Market

[Piercewise1]

Today we’re going to look at a number of players from different positions who could be in line for big pay increases with their next contract. While the extension window is not open yet, we’ve talked with an outside expert in sports management* who has provided his assessment of what these future contracts could look like. Again, these are broad estimates: actual amounts will vary based on contract length, FA Biases, and other factors.

*The expert has been heavily vetted by league administrators to ensure he is not Slippery Jim in a wig and fake mustache.

[Commissioner’s Note] To break the fourth wall for a moment: pay special attention to guys like DE Aaron Stokes, WR Russell Barnes, and WR Daniel Elswick (named but not listed). These are the kinds of increases you can expect going forward when guys come off their rookie deals. When the league began, we created contracts from scratch; only afterward did we create the rookie pay scale and enforce that for incoming drafted players. So a lot of Young pool players were already making more than the rookie scale would normally allow. But by the end of this year all created contracts will have run their course, and in the next year or two you’ll start to see players finish their rookie deals and ask for veteran contracts (whose Value has been set by other user-created offers). This, along with improved CFB classes in general, should help to increase the importance of the draft as a team-building tool by emphasizing the cost savings of having younger players on your team.

Alright, back to the content! Note that “current” pay factors in Bonus amounts for traded players; the current team may not be paying their Bonus this year, but somebody is! All amounts listed are in dollars per year (we will continue to use the Value calculation in actual contract determinations. These are intentionally different so as to not give inside information to the teams of the players listed).

 

GB QB Joseph Garibay
(80/6/C)

Current: $11.4M

Estimate: $12M – $15M

Compare to: Peter London

Stats: 259-391, 3254 yards, 23 TDs, 16 INTs

Most eyes will be on Dean Hammonds to see just how big a truck the Dolphins back up to his Miami mansion. But Hammonds is already making north of $21M a year, so the QB getting the biggest raise this offseason will probably be Garibay. This year he was the 14^th-highest paid quarterback, despite being an 80 Overall and only 28 years old. He has struggled with interceptions, but he’s also led the Packers to a 9-3 record this year and a chance at their first NFC North title. If offered, this year’s extension should move him up from starter-level pay to franchise-level pay.

One team that should pay close attention to this negotiation is the LA Chargers, who have a nearly identical QB (Aguilera, also 80/6) who is making even less and will be up for an extension next year.

 

CIN David Taylor
(82/7/C+)

Current: $4.6M

Estimate: $7M – $10M

Compare to: James Carter

Stats: 192 carries, 1164 yards, 16 TDs

Cincinnati made a big move trading for Taylor despite already having the NFL’s leading rusher in Ronnie Jefferson, who is under contract through next year. If the goal is to keep Taylor around, they’ll have to shell out the big bucks; Jefferson is making $9M as the new RB2, so I can’t imagine Taylor will be happy with less. At least it would tie him for 4^th highest AAV among running backs, befitting his Overall. And it would give Cincinnati by far the most expensive backfield in football.

 

CAR WR Russell Barnes
(81/5/A-)

Current: $5.8M

Estimate: $8M – $10M

Compare to: Christopher Lee

Stats: 56 receptions, 784 yards, 4 TDs

Barnes’ stats were lessened by an early season injury, but he’s been electric when healthy. His end-of-season progression should push him into top-5 territory among receivers thanks to that A- potential, so I expect him to ask for top-5 money. The Cowboys signed Christopher Lee to a 5 year, $45M extension last year, setting the new gold standard that Barnes (and the Colts’ Daniel Elswick) will look to match. Carolina shelled out big in free agency the past couple of years, so now it becomes an exercise in balancing the books.

 

DEN TE Carmine Rhodes
(82/7/B-)

Current: $7.2M

Estimate: $9M - $12M

Compare to: Sebastian Moore

Stats: 52 catches, 695 yards, 9 TD

Rhodes, Moore, and the Giant’s Randy Wright are in a tight cluster at the top of the TE market and will likely remain there until Ramik Phelps or Don Scott finish developing. So naturally we look to Moore’s $30M guaranteed over 3 years to level-set Rhodes’ value. Rhodes is already making great money for a tight end, but among players of his caliber, “good enough” won’t cut it anymore.  And he’s just one of many veterans the Broncos will need to make a decision on this offseason.

 

LAC OG Ramon Diaz
(86/5/B-)

Current: $6.7M

Estimate: $9M – $12M

Compare to: William Do

Stats: 16 pancakes, 0 sacks allowed

Offensive guard is a difficult market to predict. The position is typically one of the lowest-paid in football, yet Paul Caruso and Joseph Bordewyk have the two fattest contracts in the league. So we turn to William Do, who has one of the largest non-insane guard contracts, for guidance. Diaz’s relative youth means he might sign for less money overall if he can negotiate for substantial guarantees (Do’s deal is $12M per year with 50% guaranteed) and/or a long-term deal that could provide career security. Either way, expect the total dollar amount to be high.

 

CAR DE Aaron Stokes
(80/5/A+)

Current: $5.8M

Estimate: $11M – $14M

Compare to: Philip Wilcox

Stats: 49 tackles, 17 TFL, 10.5 sacks

Stokes is easily the most underpaid player on this list, being the 26^th highest-paid DE in the league despite breaking into the 80s this year and posting great stats coming off the edge. Wilcox is a similar young star who just signed a 5-year deal for $14M - $17M a year, though I expect Stokes’ deal will be more Bonus-heavy and thus a little lower in total dollars. But it will still take a huge investment from Carolina to keep Stokes on the team through his prime playing years.

 

ARI DT Leon Payne
(79/7/C)

Current: $9.4M

Estimate: $9M – $12M

Compare to: Jeffrey Jesse

Stats: 42 tackles, 9 TFL, 2 sacks

Arizona is getting a break on Payne’s pay since his former team (Denver) is paying this year’s Bonus, but next year they’ll need to shell out the full amount to keep him around. The Cardinals have the cap space to make it happen, but they’re also in the midst of a complete rebuild so we’ll see if re-signing Payne is in the new owner’s long-term plans. Another complication is that there are a lot of high-Overall DTs in contract years (Philip Nagel, Robert Miller, Timothy Taylor, Mario Sisneros, Richard Crawford, Michael Cuevas), many of whom play for teams in far worst cap situations. So there’s a possibility that multiple free agents flood the market next year and drop the price.

 

SEA OLB Brandon Schroeder
(84/4/A+)

Current: $11.0M

Estimate: $12M - $16M per year

Compare to: Michael Malone

Stats: 32 tackles, 6.5 TFL, 2 sacks, INT

The good news for Seattle is that Schroeder is already making bank, which won’t be the case for young players in the future (when they’ll be playing on mandated rookie contracts), so the jump from $11M to whatever he makes next year won’t sting as much. Michael Malone is making $15M this year on his final season of a short-term veteran deal; if Schroeder gets even close to that on a 4- or 5-year extension, he’ll be the highest-paid defensive player in league history. And since he’s poised to break the existing record for Overall (90), I can’t say it’s undeserved.

 

CIN ILB Russell Craw
(79/7/A)

Current: $7.9M

Estimate: $9M –$12M

Compare to: Gordon Wilburn

Stats: 72 tackles, 14 TFL, 7 sacks, FF

Craw is another example of a top-5 player looking for top-5 money. Only two ILBs (Wilburn and Michael Damme) are making more than $10M this year, and Craw would like to be the third. His age and Potential suggest he’s got many more great seasons in front of him, though Cincinnati doesn’t have a huge amount of cap space next year (and Jeremiah West will be expecting an extension as well). If both sides can make it work, expect longer terms that help spread out the expense.

 

NO CB Arthur Medrano
(83/5/B-)

Current: $7.9M

Estimate: $10M – $14M

Compare to: Robert Smith

Stats: 47 tackles, 12 PD, INT

Medrano is the youngest of the top-flight corners in the league, and doesn’t have an obvious challenger aside from maybe the Cowboy’s Amara Rodriguez. We won’t know exactly how high he’ll end up until end of year progressions (Randy Espino is an 88, Gregory Williams an 87), but on paper he should be one of the best corners for a long time. I don’t know if this extension will reach Dustin Phillips levels ($16M AAV), but I imagine it’s going to be big.

 

CLE FS Robert Davis
(84/7/A+)

Current: $9.6M

Estimate: $10M – $14M

Compare to: Timothy Monahan

Stats: 33 tackles, 3 TFL

Davis could become the league’s first free safety making over $10M per year. Monahan is making less on a 5-year contract that’s almost all Bonus, so it just comes down to terms. But Davis is top-5 safety with A+ potential who doesn’t turn 30 until next year, so it looks like a worthy investment for the Browns. But the team has limited funds to split between him and veteran linebackers Michael Melone and Louis Dell, so we’ll see how they prioritize those potential offers.

 

CHI SS Calvin Preston
(83/7/B-)

Current: $8.6M

Estimate: $13 – $16M

Compare to: Johnny Nguyen

Stats: 70 tackles, 3.5 TFL, 2.5 sacks, 12 PDs, 4 INT, FF

Strong safeties are comparatively better paid, thanks to big contracts for guys like Johnny Nguyen (New England) and Roy Bass (Arizona). Theirs are the kind of numbers Preston will be chasing. He’s been a Swiss army knife for the Bears, equally prolific at stopping the run and the pass, and he has a knack for creating turnovers. He’s a special player on a team with a lot of upcoming decisions to make (see: Gerald Lewis, Orlando Deberry, Allen Althoff, and Gary Lindblad, just to name a few) so we’ll see what the Bears offer him.

That it for this expert's predictions! Who else from your team do you expect will get a big raise this off-season?

[Jieret]

The SS market is cracked.

[Jambo]

Quote

[Commissioner’s Note] To break the fourth wall for a moment: pay special attention to guys like DE Aaron Stokes, WR Russell Barnes. . .These are the kinds of increases you can expect going forward when guys come off their rookie deals.

Help! Help! I'm being repressed by the system!

[Vivid]

Distinct lack of WASH and LAR players 😳🤔🫣