[2024] B1G Pre-Week 13 Deep Dive

[BabaYaga]

We are now past Week 12 of the SimCFB season and the conference race is the tightest in the country. The Big Ten now has 18 teams, without divisions, an unbalanced schedule, and STILL haven’t announced how the tie breaking procedures will work for the IRL 2024 when inevitably there will be five teams tied for the top of the conference at the end of the year.

This might be an exercise in futility, however, I wanted to piece together how the SimCFB Big Ten standings are shaping up and who we might see at the end of the year in the B1G title game. I have decided to use what I think might be the first two steps in the tie breaking procedure (but this could be completely wrong if the Big Ten actually announces their tie breaking procedures in the next six weeks which I think is likely.)

Those first two steps are:

1 - Head to Head results

2 - Conference opponents win percentage

So let’s dive into the standings to see who still has a shot to make our lives a living hell and create the worst scenario possible of having 15 teams tied for first in the conference standings at the end of the season. Currently, I am writing under the assumption that a 4-loss team will not make the B1G title game. That could change on a week-to-week basis.

 

Mathematically Eliminated from the B1G Title Game

Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Oregon, Rutgers, Washington

 

Eliminated from the B1G Title Game and Will Not be Bowling

Washington - 3-7 (2-6)
Oregon - 3-7 (2-6)
Rutgers - 3-7 (2-5)
Northwestern - 3-7 (2-5)
Minnesota - 3-7 (2-5)
Michigan State - 3-7 (2-5)
Not much to say on these six teams. They all got eliminated from the B1G Title Game in the same week and all of them will be sitting on the couch during bowl season.

Can't Lose Another or Bowl Hopes are Gone

Penn State - 4-6 (3-4)
Iowa - 4-6 (3-4)
Both Penn State and Iowa have to win both of their remaining games to make a bowl game. If neither of these teams make a bowl, it will have been a very disappointing season.

Can't Drop Another Game or B1G Title Hopes are Gone

Michigan - 5-5 (4-3)
Maryland - 6-4 (4-3)
Indiana - 6-4 (4-3)
USC - 6-4 (4-3)
UCLA - 8-3 (5-3)
All five of these teams will need to win their remaining games or they will not have a shot at getting into the tiebreaker. They are likely out already with five teams having just two losses but, if they win out they might cling to some hope. Michigan is the only team in this group still searching for bowl eligibility. 

Control Their Own Destiny for B1G Title Game

Illinois - 6-4 (5-2)
Wisconsin - 7-3 (5-2)
Purdue - 7-3 (5-2)
Ohio State - 7-3 (5-2)
Nebraska - 8-2 (5-2)
All five of these teams are sitting at 5-2 with just two games left to go in the season. They all will need to win out to have a chance to make the title game. If one or two of these teams lose this week - things will get very interesting.

 

Who Could be Mathematically Eliminated From the B1G Title Game in Week 13?

Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Penn State, USC, UCLA

Who Could Clinch A Share of First Place in the Big Ten in Week 13?

Illinois, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

 

B1G Elimination/Clinch Scenarios in Week 13

There are literally too many combinations to go through this week since 12 teams could clinch/be eliminated lol

 

Week 13 Big Ten Schedule

Saturday Morning

Northwestern 3-7 (2-5) @ Michigan 5-5 (4-3)

Iowa 4-6 (3-4) @ Maryland 6-4 (4-3)

Purdue 7-3 (5-2) at Michigan State 3-7 (2-5)

Saturday Afternoon

Indiana 6-4 (4-3) @ Ohio State 7-3 (5-2)

Illinois 6-4 (5-2) @ Rutgers 3-7 (2-5)

Saturday Evening

Penn State 4-6 (3-4) @ Minnesota 3-7 (2-5)

Wisconsin 7-3 (5-2) @ Nebraska 8-2 (5-2)

Saturday Night

Oregon 3-7 (2-6) @ Oregon State 5-6

Washington 3-7 (2-6) @ Washington State 8-3

USC 6-4 (4-3) @ UCLA 8-3 (5-3)

Bye Week

None

 

Week 13 B1G Games of Note

Northwestern @ Michigan, with a win - Michigan becomes bowl eligible.

 

B1G Bowl Eligible Teams

Indiana, Maryland, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue, UCLA, USC, Wisconsin

B1G Teams Eliminated from a Bowl Game

Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Oregon, Rutgers, Washington
 

BabaYaga’s Unscientific B1G Title Game Prediction

Nebraska vs Illinois

[subsequent]

Quote

Northwestern @ Michigan, with a win - Michigan becomes bowl eligible.

PLEASE