[2024] B1G Pre-Week 12 Deep Dive

[BabaYaga]

 

We are now past Week 11 of the SimCFB season and the conference race is the tightest in the country. The Big Ten now has 18 teams, without divisions, an unbalanced schedule, and STILL haven’t announced how the tie breaking procedures will work for the IRL 2024 when inevitably there will be five teams tied for the top of the conference at the end of the year.

This might be an exercise in futility, however, I wanted to piece together how the SimCFB Big Ten standings are shaping up and who we might see at the end of the year in the B1G title game. I have decided to use what I think might be the first two steps in the tie breaking procedure (but this could be completely wrong if the Big Ten actually announces their tie breaking procedures in the next six weeks which I think is likely.)

Those first two steps are:

1 - Head to Head results

2 - Conference opponents win percentage

So let’s dive into the standings to see who still has a shot to make our lives a living hell and create the worst scenario possible of having 15 teams tied for first in the conference standings at the end of the season. Currently, I am writing under the assumption that a 4-loss team will not make the B1G title game. That could change on a week-to-week basis.

 

Mathematically Eliminated from the B1G Title Game

No one. YAAAAY. (But also, how??)

 

Soon to be Eliminated from B1G Title Game and Will Not be Bowling

Rutgers - 2-7 (1-5)
Minnesota - 3-7 (2-5)
Both of these teams are eliminated from a bowl game and should likely look to get their youth as many snaps as possible. They are going to be eliminated with a win from nine different teams.

Can't Lose Another or Bowl Hopes are Gone

Washington - 3-6 (2-5)
Oregon - 3-6 (2-5)
Northwestern - 3-6 (2-4)
Michigan State - 3-6 (2-4)
Not much to say on these four teams either at this point in the race. Washington and Oregon will be eliminated this week from contention while Northwestern and Michigan State could stay in it one more week with a win. All four teams need to win out to make it to a bowl game - which is improbable at this point.

The Mess Begins Here

Iowa 4-5 (3-4)
Penn State 4-5 (3-3)
Michigan 5-5 (4-3)
Indiana 6-4 (4-3)
UCLA 7-3 (4-3)
Again, just not much to say on this group of teams as they fight to remain in contention for a spot in the B1G title game. Iowa plays a non-conference game this week so they can't be eliminated. Penn State and Michigan are not yet bowl eligible and still need some wins to get there but are likely on the outside looking in unless they can win out. Indiana and UCLA have to win out to potential slide into a tiebreaker spot but they might already be done for with three losses.

Tied in the Loss Column but Need to Win Out

Illinois 5-4 (4-2)
Wisconsin 6-3 (4-2)
Purdue 6-3 (4-2)
Ohio State 6-3 (4-2)
Maryland 6-3 (4-2)
Nebraska 7-2 (4-2)
USC 6-3 (5-2)
What a mess this is. All of these teams will have to win their remaining games if they want to be in the B1G title, and then that isn't even guaranteed. A loss by any of these teams will likely push them out of the conversation but if they win out they will at least get into a tiebreaker. This is a mess, full stop.

 

Who Could be Mathematically Eliminated From the B1G Title Game in Week 12?

Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Oregon, Rutgers, Washington

Who Could Clinch A Share of First Place in the Big Ten in Week 12?

No one (LOL)

 

B1G Elimination/Clinch Scenarios in Week 12

Minnesota can be eliminated with a win by one of Illinois, Maryland, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, or UCLA

Rutgers can be eliminated with a loss OR a win by one of Illinois, Maryland, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, or UCLA

Washington can be eliminated with a loss OR a win by one of Illinois, Maryland, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, or UCLA

Oregon can be eliminated with a loss OR a win by one of Illinois, Maryland, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, or UCLA

Michigan State can be eliminated with a loss AND a win by one of Illinois, Maryland, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, or UCLA

Northwestern can be eliminated with a loss AND a win by one of Illinois, Maryland, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, or UCLA

 

Week 12 Big Ten Schedule

Saturday Morning

Kansas (5-5) @ Iowa 4-5 (3-4)

Ohio State 6-3 (4-2) @ Northwestern 3-6 (2-4)

Michigan State 3-6 (2-4) @ Illinois 5-4 (4-2)

Saturday Afternoon

Rutgers 2-7 (1-5) @ Maryland 6-3 (4-2)

Saturday Evening

Nebraska 7-2 (4-2) @ USC 6-3 (5-2)

Oregon 3-6 (2-5) @ Wisconsin 6-3 (4-2)

UCLA 7-3 (4-3) @ Washington 3-6 (2-5)

Penn State 4-5 (3-3) @ Purdue 6-3 (4-2)

Bye Week

Minnesota 3-7 (2-5)

Indiana 6-4 (4-3)

Michigan 5-5 (4-3)

 

Week 12 B1G Games of Note

Michigan State @ Illinois - with a win, Illinois will become bowl eligible

(Pretty much every 2-loss team playing is a game to note because with a loss they no longer hold their destiny and every 3-win B1G team needs to win out for a shot)

 

B1G Bowl Eligible Teams

Indiana, Maryland, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue, UCLA, USC, Wisconsin

B1G Teams Eliminated from a Bowl Game

Minnesota, Rutgers

 

BabaYaga’s Unscientific B1G Title Game Prediction

Illinois vs. USC

[alexfall862]

How is no one eliminated yet?!

[BabaYaga]

7 hours ago, alexfall862 said:

How is no one eliminated yet?!

I mean technically, people were eliminated prior to last week.

But the 5 win teams could win out and the 2 loss teams could lose out which would have put them in a tie.