[2024] B1G Pre-Week 11 Deep Dive

[BabaYaga]

We are now past Week 10 of the SimCFB season and the conference title race is at a point where each week matters just a little bit more. The Big Ten now has 18 teams, without divisions, an unbalanced schedule, and STILL haven’t announced how the tie breaking procedures will work for the IRL 2024 when inevitably there will be five teams tied for the top of the conference at the end of the year.

This might be an exercise in futility, however, I wanted to piece together how the SimCFB Big Ten standings are shaping up and who we might see at the end of the year in the B1G title game. I have decided to use what I think might be the first two steps in the tie breaking procedure (but this could be completely wrong if the Big Ten actually announces their tie breaking procedures in the next six weeks which I think is likely.)

Those first two steps are:

1 - Head to Head results

2 - Conference opponents win percentage

So let’s dive into the standings to see who still has a shot to make our lives a living hell and create the worst scenario possible of having 15 teams tied for first in the conference standings at the end of the season. Currently, I am writing under the assumption that a 4-loss team will not make the B1G title game. That could change on a week-to-week basis.

 

Mathematically Eliminated from the B1G Title Game

No one. YAAAAY

 

Will Be Eliminated This Week From Contention

Minnesota - 2-7 (1-5)
Minnesota is biding their time until they are eliminated from the Big Ten Title game. My guess is that it will come this week. Somehow they blew out USC 53-0 early in the season...but that win won't help them now. Minnesota is a loss away or a win by half a dozen teams away from being eliminated.

Can't Lose Another or Bowl Hopes are Gone

Rutgers - 2-6 (1-4)
Rutgers lost bowl eligibility this past week and are now on the double chopping block. They will need to win four games in a row to have a chance to make a bowl game. With a game against Minnesota this week, however, they might inch just a bit closer to their goal. B1G title game hopes are all but over.

Northwestern - 3-6 (2-4)
A week after taking down Iowa, Northwestern almost got another win against a top team in the conference but fell narrowly to Purdue. That pushed them further down the rung of the Big Ten and now sit just one game above Rutgers and Minnesota. They have a bye week this week and might catch Ohio State coming off a big win.

Michigan State - 3-6 (2-4)
Michigan State is one of the hottest teams in the conference after beating Michigan and Indiana in back-to-back weeks. They are putting good games together for the first time this year and don't have the toughest schedule remaining. They are on a bye this week as they look to get ready for another tough game against Illinois in a week.

Staying Afloat but Need a Great Finish

Washington - 3-5 (2-4)
Washington is extremely hot and cold as they have blown teams out but over the past two weeks they have lost by a combined score of 102-9. Not great as they face a Penn State team who is looking to turn it around for the stretch run. Washington can go 3-1 to end the season but it looks bleak as it stands now.

Oregon - 3-5 (2-4)
Oregon started out the year extremely hot and has just fallen off a cliff in the last few weeks. They are losers of four in a row and will need a miracle to come back and even gain bowl eligibility, They do play Maryland this week which might be a good opportunity for them to grab a win to get some momentum started.

Will Need to Win Out to Have a Chance

Penn State 3-5 (2-3)
Penn State looked poised to slide into another bowl game this year and test the top of the Big Ten for a title. However, a three game slide for them has almost all but guaranteed that they are going to be out of the running. At this point, Penn State is just looking to win a few games to make it to a bowl game. They have Washington this weekend which is a great opportunity.

Michigan 4-5 (3-3)
Michigan is a team who has been up and down this year but have some good wins on their schedule. They play Indiana this weekend, which is as close to a must win game as they can get. If they beat Indiana they will only need to split their last two games to get to a bowl. However, if they beat Indiana and then also beat Ohio State and Northwestern they might be making things interesting in the Big Ten.

Iowa - 4-4 (3-3)
Iowa was in great shape just three weeks ago and now they might struggle to make a bowl game. They just got easily beaten by Wisconsin and has now dropped three games in a row. Iowa will need to win this weekend against a tough UCLA team if they want any shot of backdooring a B1G title game appearance.

UCLA - 6-3 (3-3)
UCLA is bowl eligible but they haven't had the easiest time after moving over to the Big Ten. They have now dropped three games in conference and no longer control their ability to make it to the title game. They have Iowa this week in what might be an elimination game for the B1G title game. UCLA is looking to create some momentum after dropping a tough one to Nebraska.

Probably Can't Survive Dropping Another Game Due to Tiebreakers

Ohio State - 5-3 (3-2)
Ohio State can become bowl eligible this weekend as they have a date with Purdue in what is a big game for both teams. Ohio State just took dow Penn State and a win against Purdue could be monumental for the program as they look to hand around in the race for the B1G title game. A win would also give them a bowl appearance this year.

Maryland - 5-3 (3-2)
Maryland is still sitting well as they have four games in the next four weeks. They have a chance to become bowl eligible this week and they could end up knocking Oregon completely out of the bowl picture. They have an intriguing schedule left and a win against Oregon might make things interesting.

Illinois - 5-3 (4-2)
Illinois is playing a non-conference game this weekend against Cal, so their final score will have no bearing on the B1G title game standings. However, Illinois is looking to win this game to become bowl eligible. They are the hottest team in the Big Ten right now and a win over Cal would give them some confidence heading into their last three conference games.

Wisconsin - 6-3 (4-2)
Wisconsin became bowl eligible last week in a big win over Iowa and they look to move to 5-2 in conference next week when they face an Oregon team that could be on the ropes. The only downside to Wisconsin is their their losses have not been good losses and now force themselves to win out and hope for the best.

Indiana - 6-3 (4-2)
Indiana suffered a head-scratching loss this past weekend as they fell to Michigan State. Now, they face Michigan in a game that could be closer than many think. Indiana doesn't have an easy schedule remaining and will likely need to win out to have a chance at making the B1G title game. This shows us how close the race is as Indiana was in pole position just last week.

Nebraska - 7-2 (4-2)
Nebraska is in a great spot and after a bye week they will go and face USC. That is a big game for a multitude of reasons but the main one being that if they lose, they are out of the race to the B1G title game. Nebraska will need to win out this year to have a chance to make the conference title game.

Locked in the Driver's Seat

USC - 6-3 (5-2)
USC is in a great position right now as they only have two conference games left and are sitting at 5-2. They lost to Wisconsin and got blown out by Minnesota earlier this season. Only the Wisconsin game will have standings implications for the B1G title game in case of tiebreaker. USC will need to win both of their remaining games against Nebraska and Wisconsin - both of which will be no easy feat.

Purdue - 6-2 (4-1)
Purdue is the lone team in the conference that holds their destiny within their own grasp. With just one loss so far in conference play they cannot afford to lose another game in case of tiebreakers. If they win their remaining games they are into the B1G title game. They play at Ohio State this weekend which will take a perfect game to come out with a win.

 

Who Could be Mathematically Eliminated From the B1G Title Game in Week 11?

Minnesota, Oregon, Rutgers,  Washington

Who Could Clinch A Share of First Place in the Big Ten in Week 11?

No one

 

B1G Elimination/Clinch Scenarios in Week 11

Minnesota can be eliminated with a loss OR a win by one of Purdue, Indiana, Illinois

Oregon can be eliminated with a loss AND a win by one of Purdue, Indiana, Illinois

Rutgers can be eliminated with a loss AND a win by one of Purdue, Indiana, Illinois

Washington can be eliminated with a loss AND a win by one of Purdue, Indiana, Illinois

 

Week 11 Big Ten Schedule

Friday Night

Iowa 4-4 (3-3) @ UCLA 6-3 (3-3)

Saturday Morning

Minnesota 2-7 (1-5) @ Rutgers 1-4 (2-6)

Saturday Afternoon

Washington 3-5 (2-4) @ Penn State 3-5 (2-3)

Saturday Evening

Michigan 4-5 (3-3) @ Indiana 6-3 (4-2)

Maryland 5-3 (3-2) @ Oregon 3-5 (2-4)

Purdue 6-2 (4-1) @ Ohio State 5-3 (3-2)

Saturday Night

Illinois 5-3 (4-2) @ California 4-5

Bye Week

USC 6-3 (5-2)

Nebraska 7-2 (4-2)

Wisconsin 6-3 (4-2)

Michigan State 3-6 (2-4)

Northwestern 3-6 (2-4)

 

Week 11 B1G Games of Note

Minnesota @ Rutgers - with a loss, Minnesota is eliminated from B1G title game contention

Maryland  @ Oregon - with a win, Maryland will become bowl eligible

Purdue @ Ohio State - with a win, Ohio State will become bowl eligible

Illinois @ California - with a win, Illinois will become bowl eligible

 

B1G Bowl Eligible Teams

Indiana, Nebraska, Purdue, UCLA, USC, Wisconsin

B1G Teams Eliminated from a Bowl Game

Minnesota

 

BabaYaga’s Unscientific B1G Title Game Prediction

Illinois vs. USC

Edited July 4 by BabaYaga

[Piercewise1]

I have no idea what happened in that Michigan State game, but it completely screwed me. I went from having a chance at the conference championship to needing to run the table against 3 good teams just to be in the running for a decent bowl game.

[BabaYaga]

On 7/4/2024 at 7:55 AM, Piercewise1 said:

I have no idea what happened in that Michigan State game, but it completely screwed me. I went from having a chance at the conference championship to needing to run the table against 3 good teams just to be in the running for a decent bowl game.

I think there will be still quite a few losses by those teams with 1/2 losses. But yeah - that one did hurt.