[2024] B1G Pre-Week 10 Deep Dive

[BabaYaga]

We are now past Week 9 of the SimCFB season and conference title races are starting to heat up. The Big Ten now has 18 teams, without divisions, an unbalanced schedule, and STILL haven’t announced how the tie breaking procedures will work for the IRL 2024 when inevitably there will be five teams tied for the top of the conference at the end of the year.

This might be an exercise in futility, however, I wanted to piece together how the SimCFB Big Ten standings are shaping up and who we might see at the end of the year in the B1G title game. I have decided to use what I think might be the first two steps in the tie breaking procedure (but this could be completely wrong if the Big Ten actually announces their tie breaking procedures in the next six weeks which I think is likely.)

Those first two steps are:

1 - Head to Head results

2 - Conference opponents win percentage

So let’s dive into the standings to see who still has a shot to make our lives a living hell and create the worst scenario possible of having 15 teams tied for first in the conference standings at the end of the season. Currently, I am writing under the assumption that a 4-loss team will not make the B1G title game. That could change on a week-to-week basis.

 

Mathematically Eliminated from the B1G Title Game

No one. YAAAAY

 

Will Need to Win Out to Have a Chance and Have a Ton of Help From Others

Michigan State - 2-6 (1-4)
Michigan State faces Indiana this weekend and it is a tall task. Indiana is in first place in the B1G and Michigan State needs to win out to even have a shot at getting in a tiebreaker for a spot in the B1G title game. Michigan State will likely get put out of its misery this weekend, but if they somehow find a way to win, the B1G title game race could be wide, wide open.

Rutgers - 2-6 (1-4)
Rutgers has a bye this week and it is much needed. They will need to refocus before looking to win four games in a row to have a shot at getting into a potential tiebreaker for a spot in the title game.

Minnesota - 2-6 (1-4)
Minnesota faces one of the hottest teams in the Big Ten with a date with Illinois this weekend. Minnesota can either make waves and take down the Fighting Illini or fall flat on their face and give Illinois some more momentum. They are one of the three teams that will need to win out, and have a ton of help to make the B1G title game.

 

Will Need Some Luck and Some Results to Fall Correctly

Oregon - 3-4 (2-3)
After looking great to start the season, Oregon is on a slide. They have lost three games in a row and will need to get back on the horse this weekend on the road at Michigan. This upcoming game might unofficially be an elimination game for the B1G title game as they will very likely need to win out to have a shot.

Washington - 3-4 (2-3)
A week after taking down Iowa, they looked to do it again against Indiana. But, they got blown out by an Indiana team who is humming along. Washington has been hot-and-cold all year long and will need to get hot and stay hot the rest of the season. They face a tough USC team that has proven that they have the ability to beat anyone this season.

Michigan - 3-5 (2-3)
Michigan, as stated above, will play Oregon this weekend just a week after a bad loss to rival Michigan State. Michigan needs to build a bit of momentum if they want to make a bowl game, much less find their way into the conference title game. Michigan has the talent to win out, and they get another good shot at a win this weekend against a hobbling Oregon squad.

Northwestern - 3-5 (2-3)
Northwestern had its back against the wall last week and beat Iowa who was sitting tied for first in the Big Ten. Now, they have to face Purdue who is also a one loss team. Northwestern has shown it can put complete games together but will need to certainly do it again the next five weeks if they want to contend. A loss this week, would put them squarely on the elimination bubble.

 

The Middle of the Conference is Eating Itself

Ohio State - 4-3 (2-2)
Ohio State has a bit of an advantage with the fact that they have only played four conference games so far and have just two losses. They lost to Nebraska last week which will certainly hurt them going forward since they now have lost that tiebreaker. They travel to take on Penn State this weekend which won't be an easy task. In fact, their remaining schedule is among the toughest in the Big Ten.

Penn State - 3-4 (2-2)
Penn State certainly has the talent to make a run but a tough loss last week against Wisconsin will do them no favors. They still have a tough test this weekend against Ohio State and if they do lose, it might spell trouble for their bowl eligibility chance with future dates against Purdue and Maryland to still come.

Iowa - 4-3 (3-2)
Two weeks ago, Iowa sat at 4-1 and unbeaten in conference play. Now, they are 3-2 in conference play and don't have a leg up on the race anymore. They have to face Wisconsin this weekend and a loss would really damage their start to the season. Iowa has to win this game or their bowl chances might even be up in the air with a fairly tough schedule to come.

Illinois - 4-3 (3-2)
Illinois is one of the hottest teams in the Big Ten and they are looking like they are in a prime position. They are winners of three in a row and their remaining conference schedule is by far the easiest in the conference. They face Minnesota this weekend and if they can handle business, they are going to be in great shape. I would not be surprised to see them run the table to the B1G title game.

Wisconsin - 5-3 (3-2)
Wisconsin has a chance to become bowl eligible this weekend, something that looked bleak a few weeks ago. After losing to Northwestern, Wisconsin was able to take down Penn State and move to 5-3 on the year. Now, they have to travel to Iowa who has been struggling quite a bit over the last couple weeks. Wisconsin still has a shot to make the B1G title game.

Maryland - 5-3 (3-2)
Maryland has a bye week this week and will be looking at all the movement around them. They can't lose this week, which is a positive, as they teams around them will rack up their 3rd loss. Maryland is still very much in the hunt.

UCLA - 6-2 (3-2)
UCLA is coming off their bye week and has four very winnable games in front of them. Their toughest game is this upcoming weekend with a game against Nebraska but all of their games aren't going to be very easy. UCLA needs this upcoming game to keep their heads above water in their hopes for a bid to the B1G title game.

Nebraska - 6-2 (3-2)
It is pretty much the same thing for Nebraska this weekend as it is for UCLA. Win the game, and you are keeping your hopes of a B1G title game alive. Lose and you are on the outside looking in and you no longer can really do much yourself for a chance. This is going to be a big feather in Nebraska's cap if they can pull off the home win.

USC - 5-3 (4-2)
USC could very easily be 5-2 in conference play after this weekend and jump up to first in the conference. They play Washington and then have a bye week. They are the only team in the Big Ten with only three remaining games in their season. A loss to Washington would be very bad for them as they still need to play USC and Nebraska.

The Two That Control Their Destiny

Purdue - 5-2 (3-1)
Purdue is one of the two teams that control their own destiny. Win and you are in. They face off with Northwestern this weekend which should give them a good chance to become bowl eligible before their end  of the season slate. They have the toughest finishing schedule in the entire league so this game against Northwestern is almost a must win.

Indiana - 6-2 (4-1)
Indiana is currently in sole possession of first place but with a loss could drop as far back as tied for 3rd place with 6 other teams. Indiana plays Michigan State so they should be able to continue their momentum forward. Indiana looks to be in the best position to get to the B1G title game at this point as long as they don't drop a game against the worst team in the conference.

 

Who Could be Mathematically Eliminated From the B1G Title Game in Week 10?

Michigan State, Minnesota

Who Could Clinch A Share of First Place in the Big Ten in Week 10?

No one

B1G Elimination/Clinch Scenarios in Week 10

Michigan State - will be ELIMINATED from the B1G title race with a loss and a win by Indiana AND USC

Minnesota - will be ELIMINATED from the B1G title race with a loss and a win by Indiana AND USC

 

Week 10 Big Ten Schedule

Thursday Night

Wisconsin 5-3 (3-2) @ Iowa 4-3 (3-2)

Saturday Morning

Indiana 6-2 (4-1) @ Michigan State 2-6 (1-4)

Saturday Afternoon

Minnesota 2-6 (1-4) @ Illinois 4-3 (3-2)

Oregon 3-4 (2-3) @ Michigan 3-5 (2-3)

UCLA 6-2 (3-2) @ Nebraska 6-2 (3-2)

Northwestern 3-5 (2-3) @ Purdue 5-2 (3-1)

Saturday Evening

Ohio State 4-3 (2-2) @ Penn State 3-4 (2-2)

Saturday Night

USC 5-3 (4-2) @ Washington 3-4 (2-3)

Bye Week

Rutgers 2-6 (1-4)

Maryland 5-3 (3-2)

 

Week 9 B1G Games of Note

Wisconsin @ Iowa - with a win, Wisconsin becomes bowl eligible

Northwestern @ Purdue - with a win, Purdue becomes bowl eligible

USC  @ Washington - with a win, USC becomes bowl eligible

Minnesota @ Illinois - with a loss, Minnesota cannot become bowl eligible

Indiana @ Michigan State - with a loss, Michigan State cannot become bowl eligible

 

B1G Bowl Eligible Teams

Indiana, Nebraska, UCLA

B1G Teams Eliminated from a Bowl Game

…none

 

BabaYaga’s Unscientific B1G Title Game Prediction

Indiana vs. Illinois