[2024] B1G Pre-Week 9 Deep Dive

[BabaYaga]

We are now past Week 8 of the SimCFB season and conference title races are starting to heat up. The Big Ten now has 18 teams, without divisions, an unbalanced schedule, and STILL haven’t announced how the tie breaking procedures will work for the IRL 2024 when inevitably there will be five teams tied for the top of the conference at the end of the year.

This might be an exercise in futility, however, I wanted to piece together how the SimCFB Big Ten standings are shaping up and who we might see at the end of the year in the B1G title game. I have decided to use what I think might be the first two steps in the tie breaking procedure (but this could be completely wrong if the Big Ten actually announces their tie breaking procedures in the next six weeks which I think is likely.)

Those first two steps are:

1 - Head to Head results

2 - Conference opponents win percentage

So let’s dive into the standings to see who still has a shot to make our lives a living hell and create the worst scenario possible of having 15 teams tied for first in the conference standings at the end of the season. Currently, I am writing under the assumption that a 4-loss team will not make the B1G title game. That could change on a week-to-week basis.

 

Mathematically Eliminated from the B1G Title Game

No one. YAAAAY

 

Will Need to Win Out to Have a Chance

Michigan State - 1-6 (0-4)
I’m going to say it - Michigan State could be in the B1G Title game…but they won’t be. They actually are not as bad as their 1-6 record shows as they have been in a one possession game for five of their losses this year, including losing to Iowa and Ohio State by a combined nine points. They have a tough schedule coming up but if they can beat Purdue, Michigan and Indiana - they might actually do something here. But, yeah - probably not.

Rutgers - 2-5 (1-3)
Rutgers, in my opinion, is worse than Michigan State. Somehow Rutgers destroyed Washington 55-21, but then lost three games in a row. They have USC this upcoming weekend which might be the nail in the coffin for them but they do have a schedule that is not very daunting to finish including Michigan State, Minnesota, and Illinois. If Rutgers can upset USC then they might be able to put their name into the ring at the end of the year.

Northwestern - 2-5 (1-3)
Northwestern is holding on to their hopes of making it to the B1G title game…but just barely. They have a gauntlet in the next three weeks playing Iowa, Purdue, and Ohio State. They will likely have to win all three of those games to have a chance at getting to the B1G title game…I just don’t see it. Even if they do win those three games - they run into Michigan and Illinois who have proven to not be slouches this year.

Minnesota - 2-5 (1-3)
Minnesota likely has the best chance to reach the B1G title game as they don’t have a super daunting schedule left. Even with the schedule not being overly tough, they still have to face Penn State late in the season followed by Wisconsin. Minnesota might do just enough to be around late in the season before faltering - but we are all rooting for the Gophers to take down their AI foes.

 

In a Decent Spot but Can’t Lose Two More

Michigan - 3-4 (2-2)
Michigan has been a bit of a wildcard so far this season, much like their QB room. They got blown out by USC and lost a close one to Illinois. But they have beaten Washington and Minnesota. The road forward for Michigan really isn’t that tumultuous. They have a rivalry game with Michigan State this week followed by Oregon, two winnable games. To cap the year off they face both Indiana and Ohio State. If they can win every game and split with Indiana and Ohio State - Michigan could be knocking on the door.

Washington - 3-3 (2-2)
Washington is a bit off a wildcard as I think they can beat anyone…but they can also lose to anyone. They can put up points in a hurry on teams, but they also allow their fair share of points, too. They blew out Northwestern and handed Iowa their only loss in a blowout…but they lost to Michigan and got blown out by Rutgers. Washington has Indiana this upcoming week and if they are able to win, they could throw a wrench into the Big Ten standings.

Oregon - 3-3 (2-2)
Oregon is very similar to Washington as they are very bi-polar when it comes to on-field performance. Oregon looked solid in the opening part of the Big Ten season blowing out UCLA and beating Michigan State. But back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Purdue where they only scored a total of 3 points is cause for concern. Oregon has Illinois and Michigan coming up where they need to have two bounce back wins.

Illinois - 3-3 (2-2)
Illinois might be a bit of a wildcard in the Big Ten race. They lost early on against Penn State and Nebraska but then they bounced back to beat Purdue and Nebraska. Their schedule the rest of the season isn’t extremely daunting either as the best team they play the rest of the year is….Oregon? Having a game remaining against the trio of 1-3 teams is valuable for them as they look to get to the B1G title game. I wouldn’t count Illinois out - especially with a tie breaker with Purdue and Nebraska in their back pocket.

Wisconsin - 4-3 (2-2)
Wisconsin was going to be a top team in the conference this year - until their coach left for better weather. Wisconsin was rolling at 3-1 with their only loss to Tennessee. After their coach left  they lost to Purdue via blowout, barely beat Rutgers, and then lost to Northwestern. Wisconsin doesn’t have an easy schedule the rest of the year as they have to play Penn State, Iowa, and Nebraska this year. Look for Wisconsin to limp to the finish line after a great start.

Maryland - 4-3 (2-2)
Maryland might be the team that everyone starts to get excited about over the next few weeks - they do have a Top 25 win over a Florida team to begin the season. However, they just got blown out by USC and have to go on the road to face Minnesota and Oregon in the next two weeks. If they can survive those two games…then they have Iowa and Penn State to round out their season. Yeah - good luck with that one.

Nebraska - 5-2 (2-2)
I think Nebraska is good. Like, I think they are an actual good team but just ran into two buzzsaws when they played Purdue and Indiana. They only lost those two games by a combined 10 points. Nebraska faces Ohio State this weekend which will be a good litmus test for them. If they can take down Ohio State they have a real shot at getting to the B1G title game but if they don’t, they’ll have to sweep Iowa, Wisconsin, and USC to end the season.

USC - 4-3 (3-2)
USC has been up-and-down so far this year and if I was their coach I would have gone mad by now. They opened the year as a ranked team getting destroyed by UNLV, then they beat #6 LSU. They blew out Michigan and then got blown out by Wisconsin. They got blanked 53-0 by Minnesota and then somehow beat Penn State. Last week they beat Maryland in a blowout. They don’t have an overly tough schedule remaining and their toughest test will be Nebraska, which they could win. If USC starts playing consistently, they can run the table.

UCLA - 6-2 (3-2)
UCLA is one of the better teams in the Big Ten and certainly had the best non-conference performance of all schools going 3-0 and beating #5 Georgia. They started off their conference slate by taking down Indiana but then got blown out by Oregon. They dropped a tough one against Penn State but have back-to-back wins against Minnesota and Rutgers. They play Nebraska and Iowa in their next two games and if they can win both of those, not stumble against Washington, and come into the showdown against USC 6-2 - they likely are going to be in the B1G title game.

In A Good Spot…For Now

Penn State - 3-3 (2-1)
Penn State has had a bit of a bumpy year but they are sitting in good shape. They have a relatively easy schedule remaining in the conference with games against Wisconsin, Maryland, and Minnesota left. They do have to play Ohio State and Purdue yet this season and if they are able to split those games or take them both - Penn State will be playing in the B1G title game at the end of the year.

Ohio State - 4-2 (2-1)
Ohio State is the team in this category with by far the toughest schedule remaining. In addition to playing Penn State, they will also face off with Nebraska, Purdue, Indiana, and Michigan. That is a tough five game stretch to finish the season with and Ohio State is going to have to be in tip top shape to make it through that stretch 3-2 or better. Even going 3-2 is not a guarantee of being in the B1G title game with the number of tie breakers that could await the 3-loss teams.

Likely The Frontrunners…For Now

Iowa - 4-2 (3-1)
I’m not sold on Iowa as being a good team…but, like, I’m also not sold on them being a not good team and I don’t think we will ever know this year. The best team Iowa will face in the Big Ten this year is Ohio State - and they won in a shootout 45-42. Iowa’s lone loss in Big Ten play came to Washington in a blowout. Their other two wins this year are against Michigan State and Minnesota so not the best collection of wins. They got blown out by Washington which might hurt them in the long run. They have maybe the easiest schedule the rest of the season of any team in the Big Ten which will see them play Northwestern, Wisconsin, UCLA, Maryland, and Nebraska. That last game against Nebraska may very well be for a spot in the B1G title game. I think Iowa does end up dropping 1 or 2 games this year before that Nebraska game but they have looked solid so far.

Purdue - 5-2 (3-1)
Purdue has been hot and cold this year. Their offense has been inconsistent but their defense has been very good so far. They dropped a Big Ten game to Illinois but did beat Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Oregon so far this year. They are the only team in the Big Ten to have not played a sub-.500 team this year and the rest of the year is no easier for them. They still have to play Ohio State, Penn State along with Northwestern and Michigan State over the next four weeks. They end on the road at Indiana which might be for a spot in the B1G title game if they come into the game with two losses or better.

Indiana - 5-2 (3-1)
Indiana sits at 3-1 right now and should be feeling pretty good about their prospects of getting into the B1G title game. They have wins over Nebraska, Northwestern, and Maryland in the last four weeks but started off the conference slate with a loss to UCLA. Indiana has a favorable stretch coming up with Washington, Michigan State, and Michigan in the next three weeks. If Indiana can get through those three weeks 3-0 (they could), then that sets up a final stretch of Ohio State and Purdue to end the year. If Indiana can go 4-1 to end the season, I have confidence in saying they are in the B1G title game.

 

Who Could be Mathematically Eliminated From the B1G Title Game in Week 9?

No one

Who Could Clinch A Share of First Place in the Big Ten in Week 9?

Also - no one

 

Week 9 Big Ten Schedule

Friday Night

Rutgers 2-5 (1-3) @ USC 4-3 (3-2)

Northwestern 2-5 (1-3) @ Iowa 4-2 (3-1)

Saturday Afternoon

Maryland 4-3 (2-2) @ Minnesota 2-5 (1-3)

Nebraska 5-2 (2-2) @ Ohio State 4-2 (2-1)

Saturday Evening

Penn State 3-3 (2-1) @ Wisconsin 4-3 (2-2)

Washington 3-3 (2-2) @ Indiana 5-2 (3-1)

Michigan 3-4 (2-2) @ Michigan State 1-6 (0-4)

Saturday Night

Illinois 3-3 (2-2) @ Oregon 3-3 (2-2)

Bye Week

Purdue 5-2 (3-1)

UCLA 6-2 (3-2)

Week 9 B1G Games of Note

Nebraska @ Ohio State - with a win, Nebraska becomes bowl eligible

Washington @ Indiana - with a win, Indiana becomes bowl eligible

Michigan @ Michigan State - with a loss, Michigan State cannot become bowl eligible

 

B1G Bowl Eligible Teams

UCLA

B1G Teams Eliminated from a Bowl Game

…none

BabaYaga’s Unscientific B1G Title Game Prediction

Indiana vs. Iowa