Early Declare Proposals

[Sarge]

Post proposals here for the early declaration of Juniors and RS Juniors.

Tagging @TuscanSota @Rocketcan @smackemz @subsequent @Kirby for posterity.

 

Please keep proposals in mind that Tuscan or whoever else literally has to create something and there's already a current system in place.

Please reference the dev diary for Early Declares before proposing. An ideal proposal maintains the initial system and likely expands on it.

[tsweezy]

I don’t think this has to be too complicated. I think there are only 2 things to really decide.

1) where does it fit in the calendar?

My preference is that once the season ends progressions occur (to simulate the totality of the previous offseason and season’s influence on their abilities) followed by early decisions / portal entries / player cuts, followed by promises stage to entice players to stay, followed by actual portal entries / declarations and then draft prep and transfer portal start happening.

I think that’s pretty straightforward, leaves coaches mostly in control with a good idea of what they’re looking for and how important it is to bring in specific players or keep them.

2) Who would declare early.

Given that our progression system means players strictly improve every year and don’t have families to support or the threat of career ending injuries, I think the only reason to declare early is if your draft stock can’t improve much more. For this reason I think only players who could potentially be 1st round picks should think about leaving early (aka top-5 at their position)

Mechanically, to me the most straightforward way to do this is take the draft class (seniors / RS SRs) and calculate the top-5 overalls at each position. Then for juniors / RS JRs perform a check against that. If their overall is within the top-5 at their position, perform a dice roll to see if they declare. We could have different weights too. 

i.e: progressions run, you have your top-5 list at positions, then for the junior class you check: if they have the highest (or tied highest) overall at their position they declare. If they’re 2nd they have 80% odds, 3rd is 60%, 4th is 40%, 5th is 20%, and if they have a lower overall than the 5th best player in the class at their position, they don’t declare early. Then you run the transfer portal check. Maybe some talk about what happens if you’re tied with 5 players for 4th best but that’s not really the main point here. I think this *should* be fairly simple to do, dynamic in the sense you aren’t hardcoding any thresholds, and fair in the sense that we should get the expected outcome: only players that are pretty much best in the country are leaving early.

 

and that’s my proposal

[Bundy]

4 hours ago, tsweezy said:

I don’t think this has to be too complicated. I think there are only 2 things to really decide.

1) where does it fit in the calendar?

My preference is that once the season ends progressions occur (to simulate the totality of the previous offseason and season’s influence on their abilities) followed by early decisions / portal entries / player cuts, followed by promises stage to entice players to stay, followed by actual portal entries / declarations and then draft prep and transfer portal start happening.

 

I would also like it to be this way because while IRL players sit out bowl games, in a universe we can control there's no reason for them to sit out and in a certain oldsim I had my literal best/only offensive player sit out "for draft reasons" and it ruined my bowl/any excitement about bowl season and the stupid player didn't get drafted until like the 5th round anyway. 

 

So in summarization, definitely agree with the timeline of being around when progressions/season advancement happens.