Projecting the expanded Big 12

[Bingo415]

 

In the expanded Big 12 Conference, perennial favorites meet up with four new programs looking to recover status and prestige from the departing PAC-12. Who comes into the 2024 season with the most talent? Who's going push through and claim the title as the Conference's top dog? Let's take a look at all 14 Big 12 teams to see where they might in ranked tiers of power entering 2024. 

EDIT: added BYU and UCF below

 

Tier 1 - Alone at the Top

Baylor Bears 

Returning a whopping 19 A or A- overall players, including Heisman candidate Travis Knebel at quarterback, the Bears and Coach @Vivid are a strong cut above the rest of the Big 12. They have depth across the team, especially at Running Back, Wide Receiver, and Defensive Line. The defensive backfield has talent, but will rely on a couple redshirt freshman at Corner, and the Tight End room could get dicey if injuries hit. Outside those relatively tame knocks, this is a program is built to win now, on the heels of their appearance in the College Football Playoff last season. Look for Baylor to emerge from the Big 12 with a 12-1 record and push other title contenders in the Playoff again. 

 

Tier 2 - Sunflower Staters + H-Town Surprise

Kansas Jayhawks

Coach @Bundy has been busy on the recruiting trail, opting for blue chip quantity over 5* talent. To wit, the 9 A or A- players on the roster are supported by 47 (!!!) B-level contributors. That depth is huge entering the expanded Big 12 and is the reason this team ought to be the top challenger to Baylor in the Conference. The 'Hawks will wrap QB Tyler Summers in bubble wrap all season, and lean on do-it-all stud RB Cody Casspi and two fantastic upperclass receivers in Nate Lucas and Tanner Bradley. The front seven is solid (with the possible exception of MLB), and the back end features the best Corner pairing in the Big 12 in Chaz Tuivailala and Tim Keller. Sitting here thinking the Jayhawks win 10 games and play in the Big 12 Title game, ultimately coming up short to Baylor, but a dark horse CFP candidate. 

 

Houston Cougars

@mahrowkeen has an eye for talent and has built a roster that is going to break through in 2024. Featuring 8 A or A- players on the roster, the depth chart is strong in the QB room (starter Trevon Cothran will hand duties over to Dwight Kearse in 2025 with no drop in play-level), OL, and DBs, with scattered top-end talent in most other spots, save LB. If the scheme is right in 2024, Houston has a chance to contend for a spot in the Title Game, with a 9-3 or 10-2 record a possibility. 

 

Kansas State Wildcats

K-State and Coach (AI) Bradley Bishop bring 10 A or A- level players into 2024, with solid RB, WR, OL, and CB rooms, plus a grizzled veteran QB in senior scrambler Nate Washington. There are some question marks at Safety and in the LB coprs, but this team should put up some points while being typically stingy on defense. That this AI-coached team is the 2nd most talented (by A-ovr players) in the Conference is telling, and shows the gap from here to Baylor. Projecting a 9 win season for the Wildcats seems logical. 

 

Tier 3 - Not many holes, Not many Game-breakers

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Pistol Pete must be excited about 2024 for the Cowboys. Coach @Broletariat has assembled a very strong roster, with 8 players at A or A- levels, and a bunch of young talent in the wings. Good luck running on the 'Boys this year, with a DL that is the clear strength of the team. QB Dewayne Dimick would like one more top-end target at WR, but he should still put up some solid numbers in a Veritcals or Run N' Shoot offense. Deficiencies at LB and CB might hold Okie State back a little bit, but this team has the experience and talent to look at an 8 or 9 win season and high-end bowl game. 

 

Colorado Buffaloes

Coming off a CFB appearance (and subsequent blowout loss to Baylor), the Buffs enter a new Conference excited to see familiar Big 8 faces, sporting a upper-middle-table talent. New QB Jon Fitts will need to outplay his B rating, but does so with decent supporting talent at RB, WR, and TE. The Offensive Line has one glaring hole, but the rest of the line should be solid. The DTs aren't deep, but the DEs have plenty of bodies to rotate in. In a bit of a coup, this might be one of the stronger LB rooms in the Conference. CB Jeremy Cabral would start on any team in the sim, and has some play-makers around him in the secondary. Shooting for 8-9 wins this year, and would feel plenty good about either. 

 

West Virginia Mountaineers

The 'Neers and Buffs have nearly identical depth charts, befitting both coach's long-term sim participation. Coach @smackemz has a fantastic Secondary with A-level talent at all four positions, a well-built front seven that will be strong against the run, and a stellar Offensive Line that is deep, balanced, and scheme-built. The skill positions on offense only have question marks due to their relative inexperience: how will QB-turned-RB Craig Guzman do taking the majority of handoffs? Again, 8-9 wins for WVU would be a successful season, with an outside shot at 10 wins. 

 

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Coach @rcarlson77 has recruited very well in recent seasons, and all that talent is going to show itself beautifully...in 2025. The 2024 version of the Red Raiders will be an intriguing appetizer to future seasons, and could be enough for more. This team is going to score tons of points, with two of the best WRs in the Conference and super stud RB Glover Evans. A very solid OL will be protecting, most likely, a true freshman at QB {John Waid), who's got a big arm and lots of moxie. Opting for lots of big bodies on the defensive line is never a bad idea, even if there isn't an A-level player in the whole front seven. If stud CB Denyi Featherston (excellent name, btw) manages 7+ INTs, this defense could be very good.  From this seat, the Raiders join the burgeoning upper-middle of the Conference in aiming for 10 wins, and will likely settle for 8 in a bid to eclipse that number and challenge for the Conference crown in 2025.  

 

Tier 4 - As goes the Superstar QB...

BYU Cougars 

Coach @Curby4 took a huge swing in the '23 recruiting cycle with QB Dick Richards, a (FR) who will begin his playing time as an A ovr talent. Richards will have hand off to the excellent Willie Irving, and throw to some solid receivers, behind a passable OL. The defense has some solid depth and middling talent up front, but the secondary is in a rough space, especially at deep safety. The Cougs, following the play of Richards, will have a chance to make this writer look very silly, but I see them winning 5-7 games, being on the cusp of a bowl game. 

 

Tier 5 - Awash in Questions

TCU Horned Frogs

Still quite a bit of talent left in Fort Worth as TCU comes into 2024 off a surprise National Championship Game appearance, losing by a single point to Julian Longacre and USC. But 2024 brings lots of questions, including who will be coaching the remaining talent. Several holes pop up on Offensive Line and in the front seven on Defense, but skill talent on Offense and a solid DB room should be enough for whomever the coach is to craft a 7-9 win season, with some useful breaks along the way. TCU does have some top-end talent, but the new coach will need to get on the recruiting trail quickly to rebuild the back end of the roster. 

 

Iowa State Cyclones

There's quite a bit to like with this Cyclone team, but AI coaching will ultimately decide what type of team this will be. A two-headed rushing monster of RB Colby Peterson and scrambling QB Quincy Bakhtiari should roll behind solid run-blocking OL. The Defensive Front Seven is all over the place, but, the secondary should be quite solid, especially in split coverage and run support. If AI finds the right personnel management and scheme, Iowa State could be looking at a bowl game and 6-7 wins. I think that's useful for where this program is. 

 

Tier 5 - Bright Spots, Cloudy Outlook

Utah Utes

Coach @SageBow struggled in the PAC-12 after a historically crummy gen, but has had a number of solid recruiting wins over two seasons. Is this the year that several of those big guns turn it on? QB Alcides Holden, a solid and smart player, will have good talent to throw to, but his best play might be to hand off to Mr. Wonderful, RB Troy Young. Young could be in-line for 1st team All-Big 12 honors. Sage has built the offense around the running game, and the OL has the ability to knock opponents off-balance at times with good run-blocking push. The DL has some bodies, and the secondary has big-timers at FS (JC Gentry, another All-Conference level guy) and SS, but the LBs are atrocious and the CBs are molasses slow. Look for the Utes to take another step forward on the recruiting trail, but expect 5 wins at the top. 

 

Cincinnati Bearcats

@Rome is back, with a Bearcats squad this is gonna need some help in 2024. RB Yoenis Gholston will be carrying this team, provided his OLine can generate any holes. Solid chance Gholston is an All-Conference performer. Mid-level talent in the secondary joins young talent in the front seven, but nothing seems fit to a scheme, yet. Cincy might best look to a ball-control offense that limits time of possession for opponents and hope to pull of some shockers in Nippert Stadium. Rom is going to need to get on the trail and find some dudes ASAP. 3-5 wins would be a boon. 

 

UCF Knights

Sitting a small bit above the Arizona schools, UCF and their AI coach have slightly more talent at their disposal than the Territorial newcomers from the PAC. Strong talent at SS and WR drive the ship for this team in perpetual transition. Think of UCF as a poor person's Iowa State: more questions at talent development and less of it all around. UCF is staring bleakly at 3-4 wins in Conference at best, but do watch out for SS Leo McDonald as a potential impact player. 

 

Arizona State Sun Devils + Arizona Wildcats

The real tragedy, in real life and in the sim, is that Arizona and Arizona State can't get a decent program-building coach to save their lives. So much talent in the desert, none going to Territorial Cup schools. Both rosters have scant blue-chip talent, all of generated, and will really struggle to block or tackle anyone. Look for Arizona CB Ty Thomas and DE Jacob Myers to put up some decent numbers, while ASU DT Cody White (pass rusher, A) and SS Sherman Leclerc (Man Cover, A) could potentially compete for All-Conference teams. Tough to predict who will be starting at QB for either program, as AI coaching will need to determine which scheme, if any, might propel these programs to 2-3 wins. That's all, folks. Read 'em and weap. 

 

 

Edited March 14 by Bingo415

[smackemz]

Great stuff!  Fun to read thoughts from the new coaches on how everything stacks up 

[SageBow]

I have a feeling the Utes will be shockingly more pass heavy this year. 

 

Even so, Troy Young is a beast, and Holden's got really good legs as well. Kid had a few long touchdowns last year and this year we returned everyone on the offensive line but JMon Wolters. Antentokoumpo will be the best receiver Utah's ever had, our first A overall guy out wide. Excited to see with the new option plays how my offense does in the early part of the year. Defensively we should be quite sound. I keep recruiting blue chip guys for defense, they should start panning out this year or the next one!