[2024] Division Preview: AFC West

[Piercewise1]

AFC WEST

 

 Team: Denver Broncos
Last Year: 13-4 (2^nd place)
Alexfall ranking: 1/32

Key Progressions:
DE Andrew Rahi +5 (84/5)
DE Chad Bruce +4 (90/6)
SS Daryl Lee +4 (85/6)
QB Peter London +4 (83/6)
ILB Jack Ousley -4 (68/12)

Rookie to Watch:
RB Kevin Peterson (B-/D)

Overview:
The Broncos are reaping the benefits of their trade-heavy strategy, with amazing players getting paid peanuts: Philip Nagel (85/8) is making $4.7M this year, Daryl Lee (85/6) $3M, and David Taylor (82/7) $2.3M. This has given Denver the financial freedom to retain their top talent with market-level deals, like their deadly DE combo of Bruce and Rahi. QB Peter London (83/6) got a cool $45M guaranteed in his recent extension as well, keeping him on the team through his age-32 season.

Strengths:
Quarterback
Defensive line

Weaknesses:
Outside linebacker

Prediction:
Division winner

The defending champions seem poised to retain their place as the dominant AFC power. Even though 13 wins wasn’t enough to win the West last year, it’s hard to bet against a team with this level of talent across every position. The division still looks tough, but the Broncos should be able to weather the storm and come out on top.

 

Team: Las Vegas Raiders
Last Year: 14-3 (division winner)
Alexfall ranking: 8/32

Key Progressions:
WR Andrew Richards +6 (69/3)
DE Nicholas Sarno +5 (77/6)
RB Adel Fraire +5 (70/4)
CB Samuel Frazier +4 (82/6)
RB James Agnew -5 (75/11)

Rookie to Watch:
SS Andrew Zagunis (55/B)

Overview:
The Raiders have an all-world offensive skills group, with two 70+ backs and two 80+ receivers in James Blanck (87/6) and ageless Charles “Charlie” Brown (82/10). With these players and a solid defensive backfield, the Raiders will be a hard team to keep pace with. The front seven has some holes, but who can afford to run the ball when you’re down by multiple scores before halftime?

Strengths:
Wide receiver
Safety

Weaknesses:
Defensive line

Prediction:
2^nd place

It’s tough to place a 14-win team who retained most of their key players into a 2^nd place slot, but it speaks to the strength of that team from the mountains. The Raiders have to deal with a 1^st place schedule and the toughest division in football, but their roster seems more than capable of meeting that challenge. Hard to imagine them doing worse than the #5 seed (best wildcard), and the ceiling is even higher.

 

Team: Kansas City Chiefs
Last Year: 12-5 (3^rd in division)
Alexfall ranking: 25/32

Key Progressions:
OLB Alen Riley +6 (76/5)
OT Jeffrey Theriot +5 (81/5)
RB James Carter +4 (86/6)
DE Vaughn Johnson +4 (77/6)
DT Jose Sola +4 (77/6)

Rookie to Watch:
WR Ronald Cimber (59/C)

Overview:
The Chiefs currently have 4 rostered quarterbacks with 3 different archetypes, and none are higher than 64 Overall. While they’ll be leaning on top-rated RB James Carter for their offense, the quandary of who will play QB should be an interesting one as we go through the preseason. The defense is piecemeal but the pieces they do have are excellent, like DE David Cunningham (85/7), CB Benedict Deluna (84/6), and OLB Ramon Hubanks (83/7).

Strengths:
Running back
Edge rusher

Weaknesses:
Quarterback
Wide receiver
Offensive line

Prediction:
3^rd place

On paper it might seem like a close race between Kansas City and Los Angeles to stay out of the basement, but the Chiefs are coming off a 12-win season where they eliminated the Raiders in the playoffs before falling to the top-seeded Steelers. They found a way to make it work with the running game and defense, so I’ll leave them as a solid 3^rd in the West.

 

 

Team: Los Angeles Chargers
Last Year: 5-12 (4^th in division)
Alexfall ranking: 15/32

Key Progressions:
RB Alonzo Snead +6 (66/6)
DT Jesus Gonzalez +5 (80/6)
SS Edwin Carter +5 (75/5)
OG Diego Johnson +5 (66/3)
ILB Nathan Burke +5 (65/3)

Rookie to Watch:
OT Da’Norris White (A-/A)

Overview:
The Chargers have probably the most under-reported QB in the league in scrambler Miguel Aguilera (80/6). With multiple Speed backs and a Balanced FB joining him, the Chargers seem prepared to utterly dominate the run game. They also added three great linemen in 1^st round pick J’Mon Wolters (B+/C-) and diamond-in-the-rough UDFAs Da’Norris White and Aqib Lynch.

Strengths:
Cornerback

Weaknesses:
Defensive edge
Offensive line

Prediction:
4^th place

I think the Chargers improve from their 5-win season on the strength of that running offense and a 4^th place schedule. The talent in the division keeps them from moving up in position, but I think 7-8 wins is a distinct possibility. That defensive front seven still concerns me – the team’s best defense might be a good rushing offense that can maintain possession for 35-40 minutes a game.