[2024] Division Preview: AFC South

[Piercewise1]

AFC SOUTH

 

Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
Last Year: 6-11 (2^nd in division)
Alexfall ranking: 21/32

Key Progressions:
OG Quincy Wile +5 (69/3)
OLB Lawrence Carnes +4 (74/5)
WR Ray-Ray Thompson +4 (65/3)
OT Ryan Dunn +4 (65/2)
QB Stephen Connolly -3 (71/12)

Rookie to Watch:
CB Dashaun Ceciliani (62/D-)

Overview:
Despite initiating a fire sale on veterans before last year’s trade deadline, the Jaguars have some solid pieces on the roster. Connolly is still a capable starter (though he turns 34 before the season starts), and the offensive line is a solid mix of established veterans and developing draft picks. Ceciliani and Kenny Daniel (61/D+) were both great picks at the end of the first round, though Ceciliani will need to learn quickly given the dearth of depth at the position.

Strengths:
Outside linebacker
Offensive line

Weaknesses:
Cornerback

Prediction:
Division winner

Someone has to win this division, so let’s give it to Jacksonville. Their roster has a real “good enough” quality that could get them to 8 wins, which will probably be sufficient. Their schedule isn’t helping (2^nd place means they get Denver and Buffalo), but if they can get 4 wins out of their division opponents and 4 from everyone else they could make it. 

 

 

Team: Indianapolis Colts
Last Year: 1-16 (4^th in division)
Alexfall ranking: 19/32

Key Progressions:
DT Michael Barrera +6 (71/5)
WR Daniel Elswick +5 (83/5)
TE Enrique Rodriguez +5 (74/5)
OT Bradley McPherson +4 (76/4)
FS Timothy Ward +5 (67/6)

Rookie to Watch:
OG Justin Cooper (59/D)

Overview:
The Colts traded three 1^st-round picks for the rights to Rashaan Lyons, then traded him for a 34-year-old scrambler. Freitag (76/12) dragged the Patriots to a .500 record last year, and the Colts hope he has just a little more magic in him. At least he has two bona fide stars in RB Michael Fulmer (80/6) and WR Daniel Elswick (83/5) to assist him, and a pair of great offensive tackles to protect him. I’d talk about the defense, but fans would probably prefer I quit while I’m ahead.

Strengths:
Wide receiver

Weaknesses:
Defensive line
Linebacker
Safety

Prediction:
2^nd place

The Colts could very well finish 2^nd in the South AND have a top-10 draft pick. The latter is a testament to the state of their roster, while the former is a testament to everyone else in the division. It would still be a huge improvement over a 1-win season, and the fact that the team is improving without 1^st round picks from the last two drafts is truly amazing.

 

 

Team: Tennessee Titans
Last Year: 13-4 (division champion)
Alexfall ranking: 23/32

Key Progressions:
FS Sergio Collins +6 (64/2)
FB Danny Kipnis +5 (70/3)
WR Jamie Murray +5 (68/5)
OG Joseph Kolodny +4 (79/6)
C Raul Salazar -3 (77/11)

Rookie to Watch:
SS Garrett Smith (61/C-)

Overview:
John Knighten is out and Danny Kipnis is in, as the Titans grabbed the fullback to better match the youth in their offense with QB Wayne Reimer (70/5) and WR Jamie Murray (68/5). But currently that offense doesn’t have a single non-lineman starter above 70 Overall, so scoring may be an issue. That will put more stress on the defense, which has some legit stars like FS Joshua Johnstone (77/7), but some gaping holes as well.

Strengths:
Interior OL
Defensive line

Weaknesses:
Wide receiver

Prediction:
3^rd place

I think the Titans current roster could have more long-term success than the Colts, but there’s plenty of road still ahead to trod. Garrett Smith was a great pick at the top of the draft, but the Titans are currently out most of their selections in ’25 (although they have Denver’s 2^nd and 3^rd) so they’ll need their current core players to carry the weight for a couple more seasons at least.

 

 

Team: Houston Texans
Last Year: 4-13 (3^rd in division)
Alexfall ranking: 32/32

Key Progressions:
FB Ryan Johnson +5 (74/3)
CB Austin Bledsoe +5 (66/2)
DE Rey Easton +5 (64/3)
C Todd Brumlow +4 (73/5)
FS Ramon Fry +4 (63/2)

Rookie to Watch:
QB Hiram Maronde (A/D-)

Overview:
Currently the Texans only have eight players over the age of 24. They’ve done a great job drafting over the past two years and have a lot of players with bright NFL futures ahead of them. But this group of future stars is, at present, not at the same caliber of other teams even in this division, to say nothing about the rest of the league.

Strengths:
Defensive end

Weaknesses:
Quarterback
Wide receiver
Defensive tackle
Linebacker

Prediction:
4^th place

The Texans don’t need to panic – they’re going to get huge progression numbers over the next two seasons, augmented with even more high draft picks. But they’re going to lose a lot of games by a lot of points for a while. All part of the plan in Houston, hopefully. And given everything written about the teams above them, they couldn’t ask for a better spot from which to launch their rebuild.

[SageBow]

28 minutes ago, Piercewise1 said:

Currently the Texans only have eight players over the age of 24.

This is an insane statistic