[2024] Division Preview: AFC East

[Piercewise1]

AFC EAST

 

Team: Miami Dolphins
Last Year: 13-6 (division champion)
Alexfall ranking: 4/32

Key Progressions:
DE Damon Lucas +5 (87/6)
WR Lawrence Sellers +5 (70/4)
WR Kenny White +4 (80/6)
CB Ernest McCoy +4 (79/5)
OT Michael Johnson -3 (71/11)

Rookie to Watch:
WR Arden Ejiofor (62/B+)

Overview:
The Dolphins averaged 377.9 passing yards per game last season and seem poised to return to those lofty heights. Dean Hammonds (82/7) is the league’s best Pocket passer and in the prime of his career, and behind star receivers Kenny White (80/6) and Lawrence Sanders (70/4) they have a trio of developing day 1 picks in Tyson Buss (60/3), J’Mon McCoy (62/2) and now Arden Ejiofor (62/R). The defense has its stars, but they’ll also be starting a few positions in the low-60s.

Strengths:
Wide receiver
Defensive line

Weaknesses:
Outside linebacker
Tight end

Prediction:
Division winner

Despite the concerns on defense, the Dolphins powerhouse offense should carry them to a second consecutive division crown. It could be a tough start – they play in Denver in the season opener, host Las Vegas in week 3, and travel to Washington in week 7. But the schedule eases after that, and Miami has the talent to push though and stack up the wins late.

 

Team: Buffalo Bills
Last Year: 11-5-1 (2^nd in division)
Alexfall ranking: 26/32

Key Progressions:
TE Jan Summers +5 (78/6)
OT Marquez Allen +5 (66/3)
QB Yusei Asencio +5 (66/3)
WR Donald Kelly +4 (80/6)
CB Alvin Annan +4 (75/4)

Rookie to Watch:
OLB Jourdan Conner (59/C+)

Overview:
Asencio got another big progression bump this offseason, so with an excellent o-line in front of him and skill players around him let’s see if he can improve from a 20-TD performance last year (and throw fewer than 18 interceptions). The passing defense looks solid with veteran safeties Adam Grier (80/7) and Patrick Collins (75/7) covering deep, but there are question marks throughout that front seven.

Strengths:
Offensive Line
Safety

Weaknesses:
Outside linebacker
Defensive line

Prediction:
2^nd place

The Bills were shut out of the playoffs last year despite winning 11.5 games and sweeping their division opponents. Asencio’s ongoing development should give fans hope going into 2024, but with the strength in the conference they might have to outpace the Dolphins if they want to secure a post-season berth. I wouldn’t be surprised if their week 18 showdown decides the division…and it’s in Buffalo.

 

Team: New York Jets
Last Year: 3-14 (4^th in division)
Alexfall ranking: 24/32

Key Progressions:
OG Daniel Mousseau +5 (80/6)
RB Stacy Moton +5 (66/3)
QB Luke Trahan +4 (64/3)
CB Roger Swimmer +4 (67/4)
DT David Digorolamo -4 (77/10)

Rookie to Watch:
WR Marvin Thomas (A-/B-)

Overview:
It’s been a roller coaster of an offseason for the Jets new ownership group, trading up to the #1 overall pick only to trade back out again. They also made big moves in free agency (like acquiring tackles Haim Costa and Javier Barber) and pulled off some major trades. Now the coaching staff needs to mold these disparate pieces into a cohesive unit in time for the start of the regular season.

Strengths:
Offensive line
Wide receiver
Linebacker

Weaknesses:
Quarterback
Defensive line
Secondary

Prediction:
3^rd place

The Jets spent big to bring in veteran talent, and that influx should help them improve from their 3-win season. I’m not convinced that Trahan is the long-term solution at quarterback, but the surrounding talent should pull him to a few victories, especially with a 4^th place conference schedule and games against the entire NFC South.

 

Team: New England Patriots
Last Year: 8-8-1 (3^rd in division)
Alexfall ranking: 28/32

Key Progressions:
WR Matthew Cunningham +6 (60/2)
OG Roosevelt Penn +5 (79/5)
FS Bruce Puello +5 (66/3)
QB Rashaan Lyons +4 (66/3)
CB Dustin Phillips -3 (72/10)

Rookie to Watch:
WR Logan Njoku (59/C+)

Overview:
The Patriots are rebuilding after an offseason full of cap casualties in which Gary Freitag and a number of other high-profile players departed via trade. The secondary remains a force thanks to the continued presence of CB Huey Ashe (85/6) and SS Johnny Nguyen (83/9), but the rest of the roster is middling veteran talent and promising young players on rookie deals. It’s a new team  in Foxborough, with a lot of fresh faces and (likely) a completely new scheme.

Strengths:
Secondary

Weaknesses:
Wide receiver
Defensive line

Prediction:
4^th place

The Patriots could struggle this year with a depleted roster, though the players they kept / obtained have decent scheme overlap. They may need that excellent defensive backfield to bail them out if they have offensive troubles with scoring or turnovers (Lyons threw 13 TDs and 20 INTs last year). It might take another couple drafts to bring in and development enough talent to compete in this tough division.