[2024] Jieret's Mock Draft v.FINAL (2/23/24)

[Jieret]

Previous mocks:

V2.0: https://www.simfba.com/topic/6177-2024-jierets-mock-draft-20-12224/
V1.0: https://www.simfba.com/topic/6129-2024-jierets-mock-draft-v10-1124/

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1. TEN: DE Whit Wilson, Oklahoma State

V2.0 pick: WR Paul Canha, Alabama    
V1.0 pick: QB Hiram Maronde, UCLA (by NYJ)

Well, THAT came out of nowhere.  And didn't they just trade for Gregory Charpentier?
The Titans did indeed trade for the veteran DE.  But Charpentier is in his 11th season, and Wilson would provide immediate impact while also securing the future at DE.  Wilson has shown a knack for blowing up plays in the backfield as his 35.0 college TFLs attest; he and Tommy Marimon would make quite the terrible twosome for AFC South foes.
So... wherefore Canha?  This is me changing my tune about the Titans' presumed offensive scheme.  After thinking it over, I believe a West Coast offense fits their existing personnel better, and Canha isn't quite as good a fit there.  If TEN wants more help at wideout there should be good options available at their next pick (#78), such as FSU's Chris Snell or Washington's Jordan Cross.

 

2. MIA: SS Garrett Smith, Baylor
V2.0 pick: DT Logan Lopez, Houston    
V1.0 pick: RB Clayton McGee, FSU

Robert Yellowhair is old and out of contract after this season, so that solves the future need.  The Dolphins' only backup safety is practice squad fodder, so drafting Smith gives them a backup to both Yellowhair and James Garnette, solving present need.

"Jieret, did you just try to justify taking a backup at #2?"

Yes, yes I did.  Look, neither starting safety is the picture of health or stamina, so I'd expect Smith to get significant playing time regardless (if Miami doesn't simply entertain trading Yellowhair - hey WAS and DEN, here's a guy on an expiring contract with no/minimum salary!).  And Smith is just an absolute freak on the field and in testing, you don't need me to sell you on how good he is.  The Dolphins will find ways to put him on the field, even if it's at dimeback. 

 

3. CAR: ILB Kenny Daniel, Wake Forest
V2.0 pick: ILB Kenny Daniel, Wake Forest    
V1.0 pick: DE Whit Wilson, Oklahoma State    

Our first repeat pick, and it's a pretty simple one.  ILB is one of the few holes the Panthers haven't plugged yet, and their trade for Fernando Owens would Canha an expensive redundancy.

 

4. NYG: RB Clayton McGee, FSU 
V2.0 pick: RB Clayton McGee, FSU  
V1.0 pick: WR Paul Canha, Alabama    

The Giants can't really go wrong with whoever they pick here, and I talked myself into both McGee and Canha several times while typing this up.  In the end, they need someone to spell John Knighten or even run with him in 2RB sets.  Big Blue only has pick #36 before waiting a LOOOONG time on their next selection in the sixth, and I think it more likely that a BPA choice at 36 has a better selection at WR instead of RB if they want to go that route.

 

5. CAR: CB Sam Voth, Illinois
V2.0 pick: DE Whit Wilson, Oklahoma State    
V1.0 pick: ILB Kenny Daniel, Wake Forest  

Despite @Sarge screaming in his ear about Canha, @Jambo sticks to his guns and continues to overhaul the CB room.  Their big money signing of Andrzej Harris needs a capable partner on the other side, and Voth would be that man.  I know the Panthers have what seem like 38,495 CBs right now (actually 10), but half of them are free agents after the year and almost none are good bets to be re-signed except for Wilson Rovegno.  Certainly none of the non-Harris Panther CBs have Voth's talent.

 

6. NO: WR Paul Canha, Alabama
V2.0 pick: SS Garrett Smith, Baylor    
V1.0 pick: SS Garrett Smith, Baylor

@Bingo415 may not get the do-it-all stud I've mocked him over the last few months, but he will happily take the draft's top Speed WR to go with the Saints' FOUR (!) other Speed WRs.  Hope the CBs in the NFC South like to run a lot....

 

7. HOU: QB Hiram Maronde, UCLA    
V2.0 pick: QB Hiram Maronde, UCLA    
V1.0 pick: DT Logan Lopez, Houston

I know there are still some QB options in post-draft FA, but for a team that's basically torn it all down I'd think they want to go as young as they can at the most important of positions.  Get Maronde and use that 65-70M (!) of 2024 cap space in the second wave of FA to give him protection and weapons.

 

8. ATL: DT Logan Lopez, Houston
V2.0 pick: OG Alex Hitchens, Arkansas    
V1.0 pick: OG Alex Hitchens, Arkansas

The Falcons can't resist Lopez falling down the board and sprint to the podium to announce the selection.

 

9. SEA: WR Logan Njoku, Kentucky   
V2.0 pick: OT J'Mon Wolters, Utah    
V1.0 pick: RB Richard Bianchi, Hawaii

Their best young-ish receiver is recently-signed 4th year Ronald Geda (66 OVR).  Palkovich and Hoffman are getting up there in age.  Despite what I said earlier about a deep WR class there is a difference between the top two/three players and the rest in my opinion, and Kemoko Allard needs playmakers to throw to.  Njoku has the speed and the hands to be that playmaker.

 

10. LAC: C Ruben Shazier, Alabama
V2.0 pick: DE Ty Bogdanovich, Indiana    
V1.0 pick: OT J'Mon Wolters, Utah   

The Bolts have made no secret of their desire to build a smashmouth football team, and Shazier would be a huge key to making that work for them.  Shazier captained a Crimson Tide squad that loved to run the ball down the opponent's throat, even with Paul Canha's existence, and that sounds like a great recipe for what @Dean wants to do. 

 

11. JAX: CB Rashard Hilliard, Georgia State
V2.0 pick: CB Sam Voth, Illinois    
V1.0 pick: CB Sam Voth, Illinois

Voth is gone in this mock, but the need remains the same.  Some would say Hilliard is even better than Voth.

 

12. NYJ: OG Alex Hitchens, Arkansas
V2.0 pick: CB Jonathan Parks, Ohio (by DET)
V1.0 pick: WR Arden Ejiofor, Louisiana (by DET)

Consider this a value pick and a hedge, just in case they run into issues re-signing David McNeal.  I really considered Parks to bolster the CB room, but he's less likely than Hitchens to see significant playing time even if he's eventually going to be a CB1.

 

13. NYJ: WR Arden Ejiofor, Louisiana
V2.0 pick: WR Arden Ejiofor, Louisiana (by NYG)
V1.0 pick: ILB Davis Covey, Charlotte (by MIN) 

Ejiofor, on the other hand, SHOULD see some playing time with only 3 WRs currently on the roster.  Especially with two of them pending FAs.  Ejiofor is the last of the top-tier WRs on my board, and the Gotham Green snatch him up while they can - they don't pick again until #54.

Oh, who are we kidding?  @Spoof is totally going to go stir-crazy waiting and will totally trade for another pick in between now and then.

 

14. GB: CB Jonathan Parks, Ohio
V2.0 pick: C Ruben Shazier, Alabama    
V1.0 pick: C Ruben Shazier, Alabama    

No Shazier, no problem, especially with Richard Campos now in the fold.  The Pack need help in the secondary badly, and Parks is well-situated to see immediate playing time.

 

15. CLE: DE James McKinnon, Miami(OH)
V2.0 pick: WR Logan Njoku, Kentucky    
V1.0 pick: CB Rashard Hilliard, Georgia State   

Cleveland gets their choice of DEs here, but we're going with the Oxford Man due to scheme fit.  McKinnon is a strong, strong player that shows the ability to shed blockers and disrupt plays in the backfield (22 TFLs and 6.5 sacks in 2023!), and should start for the Browns in week 1.

 

16. BAL: OT J'Mon Wolters, Utah
V2.0 pick: OT Francisco Smith, Washington    
V1.0 pick: OT Francisco Smith, Washington

The Ravens stop the #SWOLEGANG's slide, @SageBow can breathe again.  The logic about kicking Butera inside hasn't changed, the top-rated tackle falling this far just makes the process easier to follow.

 

17. NE: RB Richard Bianchi, Hawaii    
V2.0 pick: RB Richard Bianchi, Hawaii    
V1.0 pick: DE Vince Gresham, Oregon State

The Pats couldn't turn in this pick quickly enough if Bianchi falls this far.

 

18. BUF: OG Felix Rodriguez, Temple    
V2.0 pick: OG Felix Rodriguez, Temple    
V1.0 pick: OG Felix Rodriguez, Temple

Our first completely unchanged pick throughout all three versions.  DT is a greater need, but there isn't one on the board worthy of a first-round pick.  We'll stick with the plug-and-play Rodriguez as a replacement for pending FA Morris Tye, who will probably price himself out of range for the Bills (only 30M of cap space in 2025).

 

19. TB: OT Francisco Smith, Washington
V2.0 pick: FS Kyle Reimold, Central Michigan    
V1.0 pick: CB Stansly Alvarez, LSU

The Bucs have definitely put in work to get back to their run-heavy ways, but they have a huge hole at tackle opposite last year's first-rounder Damien Knebel.  Agent Smith would add to the... inevitability Tampa's run game wants to impose on their opponents.

 

20. PHI: ILB Davis Covey, Charlotte    
V2.0 pick: ILB Davis Covey, Charlotte    
V1.0 pick: DT Dante Gates, Kansas

Something fun I didn't pick up on until SageBow mentioned it after my last mock?  Covey and Christian Palardy were teammates at Charlotte.  So, we know they already play well together.  Make it happen Philly.  You know you want to.

 

21. CHI: FS Kyle Reimold, Central Michigan 
V2.0 pick: CB Rashard Hilliard, Georgia State
V1.0 pick: FS Kyle Reimold, Central Michigan

Back to the original pick, since Reimold is available once again.  Stansly Alvarez is a possibility here, but I think having an excellent replacement for Jerzy Redding is important and Reimold could find a little playing time at CB4 if need be, where Alvarez probably would have slotted in anyway.

 

22. SF: DE Vince Gresham, Oregon State    
V2.0 pick: DE Vince Gresham, Oregon State    
V1.0 pick: DE Ty Bogdanovich, Indiana

The Niners' trade for Brandon Ramirez takes the possibility of Blake Smith or Andrew Solano out of the equation, so we'll focus on the defensive line.  And like last time, I'm not sure what scheme the Niners will use, so we hedge and mock Gresham instead of Bogdanovich.

 

23. DET: DE Ty Bogdanovich, Indiana
V2.0 pick: WR Trevor Wood, USC (by NYJ)
V1.0 pick: WR Logan Njoku, Kentucky (by NYG)

Honestly, I don't love the board here for Detroit.  The best players left on the board either aren't obvious needs (Bodganovich, Wood) or not scheme fits (Alvarez).  Barring injury, I'm not sure any player draft here will make an immediate impact, so let's plan for the future.  Stephen Brouillet is a great but declining player with three years left on a terrible contract.  Bogdanovich can enter the DE rotation with Brouillet and 4th-year Joseph Little with an eye on being Brouillet's heir apparent.

 

24. ATL: OG Corey Cabrera, San Jose State
V2.0 pick: TE Hakeem Judd, Texas State 
V1.0 pick: OG Corey Cabrera, San Jose State

The opening sentence for this pick from my previous mock: "Between the Hitchens pick and the likely re-signing of Kyle Schneider in FA, there's no need to double-dip at the guard position like I had them doing in the previous mock."

...whoops.  No Hitchens in this mock?  Understandable with Lopez falling.  But they did not, in fact, sign Schneider in FA, so guard is back on the menu, boys!  Cabrera will slot in nicely at LG with recent signee William Demarco manning the other guard position.  Joseph Saric is the only other guard on the roster, and the Falcons are in deep trouble if he's seeing significant playing time.

 

25. DAL: TE Hakeem Judd, Texas State
V2.0 pick: QB Andrew Solano, TCU    
V1.0 pick: OT Tony Varvaro, Northern Illinois

Man, I would love to put Alvarez on the Cowboys.  But would @Rocketcan really want to spend a third consecutive high draft pick on a cornerback?  I'm leaning no.  And as for Solano, maybe Dallas is willing to wait another year on a QBOTF, especially with Noel signed through 2026.  So let's infuse some young blood into the TE room.  Everyone here is 28 or 29 (EXP 6 or 7), and none are signed past 2025.  Hakeem Judd is a great replacement, and can ease the workload on Henry Green and Roberto Duenez.

 

26. MIA: QB Andrew Solano, TCU
V2.0 pick: QB Blake Smith, North Texas    
V1.0 pick: QB Blake Smith, North Texas 

Unlike Dallas the Dolphins do not have the luxury of waiting on a QBOTF, unless they want to roll the dice on having an early shot at what's expected to be a strong QB class.  So why take the chance?  I AM switching the QB drafted here, as Solano got a lot of helium over the last few weeks.

 

27. KC: WR Trevor Wood, USC
V2.0 pick: OT Brad Adams, San Diego State    
V1.0 pick: WR Trevor Wood, USC

The Chiefs picked up Douglas Decker in Free Agency (I think? Hard to tell), and with Jeffrey Theriot* form a perfectly cromulent pair of bookends.  We'll go back to our original pick for them as there are no young wideouts of note on the roster, and Kansas City's QB - whoever it is - needs someone to throw to.

*not Michael Garrett as I mistakenly stated last mock.

 

28. ARI: OT Tony Varvaro, Northern Illinois    
V2.0 pick: OT Tony Varvaro, Northern Illinois    
V1.0 pick: CB Jonathan Parks, Ohio

Arizona now has one tackle!  But they need two!

 

29. PIT: WR Sean Plutko, Texas State 
V2.0 pick: WR Sean Plutko, Texas State    
V1.0 pick: ILB Carlos Blacknall, North Carolina

Still only one WR under contract in 2025.  If they extend Paul Gurule that makes two.  Plutko makes three. 

 

30. JAX: CB Stansly Alvarez, LSU
V2.0 pick: CB Stansly Alvarez, LSU   
V1.0 pick: WR Sean Plutko, Texas State

Even after adding Rashard Hilliard earlier, the CB room still stinks.  Double-dipping with a player the quality of Alvarez makes a ton of sense.

 

31. JAX: ILB Joe Yanda, Utah State
V2.0 pick: ILB Joe Yanda, Utah State    
V1.0 pick: DT Phillip Bell, BGSU

This pick could either be Yanda or UNC's Carlos Blacknall.  But I like Yanda's all-around game a bit better, so he goes here.

 

32. LAC: OLB Rasheed Downs, Notre Dame
V2.0 pick: OLB Rasheed Downs, Notre Dame (by CAR)
V1.0 pick: OLB Rasheed Downs, Notre Dame (by CAR)

The Chargers have picks at 32, 37, and 42, so they can fill in holes without reaching for anybody.  With the last pick of the first round, I (still) have them taking my top-rated outside linebacker to start opposite Scott Potash.

[Jieret]

Disclaimer: I have scouted zero of these players in the Draft Room.

Edited February 23 by Jieret