2022 NFL Draft Review - Part 1

[tsweezy]

Now that the inaugural draft selectees are entering their 3rd season I think it would be fun to take a trip down memory lane and do some re-grading and new projections with a bit more information. 

 

With this first installment, we'll just do a recap of round 1 and a revised grade for each selection:

 

1.1 - Cincinnati Bengals - OT Elijhaa Rader, Illinois

Well the first selection was a no-brainer. Rader had the highest overall of any draft prospect at 64, an A- potential, and was a premium position as a run-blocking OT. The easy selection and he garnered 1095 rookie snaps. Hard to quantify how well OL play, but he seems fine. He's gone +10 over the last 2 seasons and is still the highest rated player from this draft class as a 74 overall 3rd year. Great selection:

Draft Grade: A

1.2 - New York Jets - FB Danny Kipnis, Miami (OH)

Second selection anddd we have our first head scratcher. I know this was an AI pick but it's tough to see. Kipnis was actually not even the best FB prospect in this draft and was a 60 overall (7th best) with a receiving archetype. This was a massive reach at number 2 overall, although he has gone +10 as well, so a 70 overall isn't bad. Unfortunately he still plays a position that has almost no importance although I'm assuming he'll be converted to RB soon enough. He was actually traded about a month ago to Tennessee, where he will ostensibly be the replacement for RB Knighten who recently left.

Draft Grade: C

1.3 - Indianapolis Colts - QB Rashaan Lyons, Kentucky

Anddd we have our first QB off the board. Rashaan was an absolute monster in college and led Kentucky to a 14-0 semifinal birth before losing to the the also undefeated Tulsa national championship team. He looked good in the pre-draft process and the college production is likely what slotted him ahead of higher rated Dekoda Link. Unfortunately he has not lived up to #1 QB billing, as he has been pretty mediocre, and had mediocre progressions as well. Going +8 in 2 years with B potential and the full time starting job is not fantastic, and his on-field stats weren't great either. A 66 overall now, he has just been moved from IND to NE where they hope he's grown enough to shoulder the burden of a longer term rebuild.

Draft Grade: C+

1.4 - Chicago Bears - ILB Jehu Ginn, Baylor

Another pretty clear draft pick up here. A prototypical run stuffing ILB, Ginn had the 3rd best overall at 62, and has gone a really good +11 over the last 2 years to be the 3rd best rated player from this class. I'm not looking up stats for all these players because it's a mess to find, but I get the impression that Chicago is quite happy with his arc thus far. Not much more to say. High expectations and he's been meeting them.

Draft Grade: A

1.5 - Denver Broncos - QB Dekoda Link, Oregon State

Well well well, the famous Dekoda Link. Projected by many to be the #1 pro prospect at QB, he fell to #5 and was quickly snapped up by the Broncos despite already having their young starting QB in Peter London. The plan became immediately obvious when he was part of a mega trade with Carolina. He has since been the savior of Panthers football. With a rough rookie season (understandable, Carolina traded every good player they had to get him, he had no talent to work with), some people wrote him off a little, but this past year he seemed to turn the corner, and is now a 70 overall with a +9 progression over the last 2 years. I think this is the first year he really puts his stamp on the team and shows himself to be an NFL legit starting QB. 

Draft Grade: A

1.6 - Los Angeles Rams - RB Bruce Dawson, Tulsa

A newly minted national champion, Bruce had the stats, the pedigree, and the attributes to be the obvious RB1 selection at a 62 overall (3rd highest in the class). His receiving archetype also meshed perfectly with the Rams offense. This was a no-brainer decision as the LAR offense has lit up the league over the last few years. He's looked like a solid long term play, even though obviously his first 2 years his ratings haven't reflected that much yet. The one knock here is that even with substantial playing time he only went +7 over his first 2 seasons, the least of any first round pick. Hopefully he doesn't stall out

Draft Grade: B+

1.7 - Minnesota Vikings - WR Alex Williams III, Wisconsin

Another clear pick. With young QB Christian Sinnock, the Vikings wanted to load up on receiver talent for him (and to allow themselves margin to trade some of that WR talent). Alex was the clear WR1 in the pre-draft process and had a 60 overall grade as a rookie. Since then he's put up fairly solid numbers, and added +10 progression. As a 3rd year 70 overall he finally has the attributes to make him a real threat, especially when paired with Sinnock. It doesn't hurt that he's from the upper midwest as well and a real culture fit with the team and fanbase.

Draft Grade: A

1.8 - Cleveland Browns - CB Kolton Hayes, Clemson

The first CB off the board, Kolton Hayes was a man coverage guy who put up some good combine testing. Honestly it was a big point of discussion which of the first round CBs would turn out the best and all of them had valid reasons to be picked first. Cleveland went with Kolton though, and so far I think he's been.. ok? He started out as a 57 overall and got 1000+ rookie snaps, and has gone +11 to hit 68 overall and legitimate starting talent this year. In a re-draft I think he's the clear CB2 of this class, but it's not an egregious pick to make here. 

Draft Grade: B

1.9 - Baltimore Ravens - FS Matt Perez, Akron

Another top-10 selection from the MAC. Perez is... surprising to see go so early. Maybe they really needed him at this position, but I think they could have waited and gotten an identical FS in round 2. As the 9th overall pick he was only a 56 overall as a rookie which was not particularly high. He has gone +10 which was nice to see, and he received the 4th most rookie snaps with 1587. He still projects well as a future FS stud, but it's been a long arc to get there.

Draft Grade: C+

1.10 - Detroit Lions - CB Mike Pressly, Maryland

Probably the biggest miss of the first round. Pressly was the 2nd CB off the board, but is now only the 9th best CB from his draft class. The best CBs were man coverage guys, so if they wanted a zone corner Detroit had slimmer pickings, but with the depth of the class at this position reaching for a 54 overall guy in the top-10 was just not good value. He's gone +9 but still as a 63 overall 3rd year he's at least 2 more years away from being a difference maker. They could have gotten (and should've gotten) this guy in the 3rd or 4th round. Only question remaining is if they'll continue to feed him snaps or move on.

Draft Grade: F

1.11 - Philadelphia Eagles - OLB Mark Soto, UNLV

The Eagles LOVE Soto, they talk about him all the time. In terms of picks, he's pretty good. He's by far the best OLB out of this class and has gone +8 from 59 to 67 overall. I think he's performed well, he got a fair amount of playing time from the jump. He's just now entering the part of his career where he'll be a legitimate player instead of just someone to feed snaps for progressions. Solid pick at a position that's hard to find that at.

Draft Grade: A-

1.12 - Arizona Cardinals - OG Angel Loe, Temple

With the honorable distinction of having the 1 ID being the first player generated in this sim, Angel Loe lived up to that in his career at temple. He entered the draft as a 61 overall top-5 talent player and slid a little bit due to being a non-glamour position. Still, a great pick to bolster the Cards OL, and he's been a day-1 starter. With a +9 progression, he's now still a top-5 player from the draft class at 70 overall which makes this, if not a steal, a very good pick.

Draft Grade: A

1.13 - Washington Commanders - OT Steven Humphries, USC

Well, Humphries was one of only 2 first rounders to not win at least a rotational starting job as he was drafted by the future super bowl champion Commanders. He was the clear #2 OT prospect at 57 overall, but couldn't crack the starting lineup and his progression has obviously not been great as he rode the bench for the past 2 seasons. Still going +8, he's an ok 65 overall now. Interestingly, he may get his chance to start at RT this season as we will finally see if he's true NFL material. With A- potential maybe he can make up some of those progression points too. 

Draft Grade: C+

1.14 - Houston Texans - FB Ryan Johnson, Texas State

Whew, what a guy. Ryan Johnson is a stone-cold STUD and lit up the nation at Texas State. FB-cum-RB he very obviously played to run the football and was damn good at it. With a 64 overall coming out, he was tied for #1 prospect in the class, and only the specter of having to play out of position dropped him this far. He finally got taken by Houston and has played fairly well. I assume this year he fully converts to RB and proceeds to dominate. A 74 overall 3rd year, he's one of the best in the class and scooping him at 14 overall was nice work.

Draft Grade: A+

1.15 - Dallas Cowboys - CB Amara Rodriguez, Fresno State

The 3rd first round CB (out of 5!) turned out to be the best. By attributes, Amara was the #1 CB at 58 overall and I forget why he slipped this far. Since being drafted he's turned it on, playing 1611 snaps as a rookie and setting a league high +13(!!!) progression over the last 2 years. It really doesn't get any better. He's the 4th highest rated player from this class and the easy answer for best CB (by a fair margin). Great pick, future superstar.

Draft Grade: A+

1.16 - Atlanta Falcons - OT Ulrick Phillips, TCU

The ONLY first rounder to record ZERO snaps is the Falcons pass blocking OT. He was a 56 overall, and in contention to be OT2-4 from the draft class. However, he couldn't get onto the field and only posted a +8 progression, as he's now a 64 overall. All is not lost though, despite a slow start he could turn it around and we'll see if Atlanta starts investing more playing time into progressing him.

Draft Grade: C-

1.17 - New England Patriots - FS Bruce Puello, Northwestern

Bruce is... fine enough. Haven't heard much out of him but he's arguably better than Perez despite being taken later. Still drafted maybe a hair too high, but he's on a fine trajectory at FS. +10 in 2 seasons, should be the long-term starter for NE.

Draft Grade: B-

1.18 - Miami Dolphins - CB Ramon Newton, Arkansas

I thought this was the guy fighting with Amara to be CB1. Instead he went CB4 and got his playing time at Miami. He's had only ok progressions, at +9 despite getting starting snaps. He's actually underperformed Kolton Hayes a little bit, but is still about in line with expectations for where he was picked. Certainly the best CB available at this pick so that was fine. A 67 overall now, it's time to show something. I don't know how LAR acquired him, but he is another first rounder moved to a different team.

Draft Grade: B-

1.19 - Jacksonville Jaguars - OG Quincy Wile, Mississippi State

Another relatively easy pick. Quincy had the highest overall remaining at this position (59) and was a nice pass blocking guard. Nothing too fancy and he got plenty of playing time his first year. +10 over the last 2 seasons is solid and now he's a good 69 overall, love to see it.

Draft Grade: A

1.20 - Washington Commanders - WR Ray-Ray Thompson, Tennessee

A slight reach here as GM sweezy picked one of his college stars. Considering the depth of WR talent and the fact that they traded up to get their second 1st round selection, it's just not very good value. A 56 overall is kinda mediocre, and he only went +9. He did have a critical 3rd down conversion in the super bowl so he had more big time game impact than any other rookie, but he was clearly not ready to be a major piece in the offense yet. In some of the flurry of trade moves he's now in Jacksonville where he looks to make a serious mark as a starting WR.

Draft Grade: C-

1.21 - Pittsburgh Steelers - TE Devontae McKinney, Purdue

Devontae was unstoppable in college and put up CRAZY numbers. Pittsburgh fell in love and overlooked his relatively poor NFL preparedness. A 54 overall going in the first round is just hard to see the value. He has gone +10 in 2 years, and I haven't seen his numbers but I assume they haven't been particularly crazy. I think he's probably on track to be one of the better TEs in the league eventually, so just some more patience needed. Still one of the more disappointing first round selections though as he's only the 3rd best TE from his class behind two 3rd round selections.

Draft Grade: D+

1.22 - Los Angeles Chargers - ILB Nathan Burke, LSU

There were only 3 ILBs worth a damn in this draft, and LAC got the very clear #2. A prototypical field general, Burke has gone from 55 to 65 so again, he's just now entering the stage where he can start to be analyzed as a "real" player instead of a prospect. I think he has a good future and there weren't many obvious better selections at LB so it's a good enough selection here.

Draft Grade: B-

1.23 - New York Giants - SS Matt Bass, Arkansas

While I think people have started thinking of the league as pass heavy, NYG wasn't afraid to draft a heavy hitter here. I think Matt Bass checked a *lot* of boxes pre-draft and has since progressed +11 to show off a 68 overall at this stage which is definitely a win at this point in the round, even if SS isn't the most coveted position. The only knock could be that Ryan Reininger is basically an identical player who went 2.22 so maybe NYG could've traded down a fair bit and still selected one of them. Oh well

Draft Grade: B-

1.24 - Buffalo Bills - OT Marquez Allen, Kansas State

With a couple disappointing OTs already in the first, Marquez is probably the second best OT in the class thus far (and got to start as a rookie, probably related). Only a 55 overall, he's gone +11 in two years and looks to be a great piece on the edge for the next 9 years as he's an adept pass and run blocker now.

Draft Grade: B+

1.25 - Seattle Seahawks - ILB Christian Carter, Kentucky

Let's get this straight, Christan Carter was NOT a good player coming out of the draft. As a 53 overall, he wasn't in the top-90 of "pure talent" players. Of course, if Seattle decided they wanted an ILB there was a steep drop-off after him. Ultimately I think Seattle rolled the dice on his A+ potential (the only such in the 1st round). He has expectedly had good progressions at +11, but you would've thought he'd be Amara-esque or better with that potential and starting time. Seattle had to stomach rolling out a 53 overall (which frankly wouldn't be a #1 player in college ball much less playing NFL players) but at 64 overall now he's climbed his way to respectable enough. I still don't know if I love this selection, but it's alright.

Draft Grade: C

1.26 - San Francisco 49ers - WR Carlos Ramos, North Texas

In the mix to be WR2, SF was absolutely thrilled that Ramos fell all the way to them. He is the fastest player bar none from this draft class and has lept from 58 overall to 68 overall. We haven't seen much from him, but the QB situation has been horrid for him so as soon as they get a guy with a real arm he might start showing out soon.

Draft Grade: B+

1.27 - Green Bay Packers - WR Junior Ogbah, Kansas

Unfortunately for GB the WRs picked before and after Junior turned into great value picks. But Ogbah was one of the worst picks in this round. After refusing his combine invitation got people to notice him, Ogbah somehow beat the lazyness allegations and showed off his route running prowess to get a first round selection at 54 overall, tied for 2nd lowest in the round. He wasn't impressive in rookie camp and got very sparse playing time. He has still gone +10 in 2 years so the work ethic is there, but a 64 overall as a 3rd year qualifies as just "good" instead of a great first round selection.

Draft Grade: C-

1.28 - Dallas Cowboys - DE Michael Dyson, Northern Illinois

After scoring the number 1 CB in the draft (by a wide margin), Dallas got back in and snagged the number 1 DE in the draft (by a good margin). The DE class was perceived as being pretty deep but without a standout hence they all fell so far. Dyson was tied with Bostick for best overall at 57, but has had full time snaps and gone +10 while Bostick went +8 giving Dyson the title of #1DE from his class. A 67 overall 3rd year he may not be ready to lead DAL to a ring this year, but given their young core he could be a major piece in the coming seasons.

Draft Grade: A

1.29 - Buffalo Bills - QB Yusei Asencio, Ohio

Yusei set the world on fire breaking tons of QB records. Unfortunately in the pre-draft process a lot of that was written off as MAC competition. He could spin the ball in workouts, but only boasted a 56 overall grade. Still though, he was clearly a top-3 QB prospect and was the third one off the board. He's been kinda quiet in Buffalo, but went a +10 (best among QBs) and now has basically identical attributes as #3 overall pick Lyons. I think he's got moxie and will continue blowing up and be a franchise QB. Good pick at the end of the round.

Draft Grade: A

1.30 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - CB Luis Wong, New Mexico

Man what a run on CBs. Luis was the last of the 57 overall prospects and people love a ball hawk. However, he's only gone +8 despite getting starting snaps which is disappointing for a first round selection in my opinion. He's CB4 out of the 5 first round selections which seems like it makes him an ok pick. And it is just an ok pick considering there are a couple other 64/65 CBs picked in later rounds. Fine pick but nothing that blows you away.

Draft Grade: C+

1.31 - Las Vegas Raiders - WR Andrew Richards, Oklahoma

Perfect pairing. Andrew Richards was heavily rumored to have some off the field issues as he didn't play a single snap for a very good Oklahoma team despite having the 3rd highest WR rating in the country (57). Some people also dinged him for his archetype (red zone threats aren't really beloved). However, the bad boy Raiders loved his physicality and attitude and pulled the trigger. He got playing time but I don't recall how great he was. Still though, the synergy paid off as he's gone +12, second best progression in the whole draft and is a 69 overall trailing #1WR Williams by only 1 point. I still don't love the archetype, but he's been proving the haters wrong so far and wants to continue doing so.

Draft Grade: A

1.32 - New Orleans Saints - RB Stacy Moton, Illinois

Only 3 players left > 56 overall and NO decided to scoop up the 58 overall #2 RB prospect. Moton was a 5-star Speed back who saw only sparing usage in his first season going +8 over the last 2 years. I haven't noticed him make a splash, but now that he's just been traded to NYJ perhaps the change in schenery will lead to his first breakout year 

Draft Grade: C+

[TuscanSota]

16 hours ago, tsweezy said:

1.25 - Seattle Seahawks - ILB Christian Carter, Kentucky

Let's get this straight, Christan Carter was NOT a good player coming out of the draft. As a 53 overall, he wasn't in the top-90 of "pure talent" players. Of course, if Seattle decided they wanted an ILB there was a steep drop-off after him. Ultimately I think Seattle rolled the dice on his A+ potential (the only such in the 1st round). He has expectedly had good progressions at +11, but you would've thought he'd be Amara-esque or better with that potential and starting time. Seattle had to stomach rolling out a 53 overall (which frankly wouldn't be a #1 player in college ball much less playing NFL players) but at 64 overall now he's climbed his way to respectable enough. I still don't know if I love this selection, but it's alright.

Draft Grade: C

I do appreciate the honesty. I remember making this pick at the time via mobile while running errands with my GF. He wasn't our first player that we wanted at that pick but he was considered the safest due to the linebackers that were available at the time.

 

Great review overall on the first round. Looking forward to reading more.

[npklemm]

The Draft Grade for Lyons is incredibly generous.

I'd grade it an F. Given everything I gave up to get him (including the #1 Overall Pick in the 2024 Draft) and how poor he played, there's no way he's not a Clear F Grade in my opinion.