2023 Elo Ratings

[tsweezy]

Thanks to @Ezaco I realized we actually have a formatted list of game results from last season which meanssss I am actually able to run an Elo rating system on last season!

See link below for full information including sheets with pre-postseason standings. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wKmjt5rkxSgOHVFGz1ulZ-lK_0XDE8AYNj32f3tWHqw/edit?usp=sharing

Below I'll post the full chart in-line but here's a quick explanation:

Elo is a predictive measure that presumes to rank teams based on who is most likely to win a future matchup. It not only includes wins, but also MOV (although that is capped at 25, so beating a team by 26 and by 50 are counted the same).

Strength of schedule is just the average elo of the opponents, regardless of wins/losses.

Expected wins is how many wins (based on elo ratings) the rank X team would have against that schedule.

Strength Of Record is the ranking of (actual wins - top 25 expected wins).

high elo, low SOR seems to imply you dusted the bad teams you played, but took some losses that are unexpected based on those other game scores

low elo, high SOR means you won a bunch of close games basically (or you played a few very, very good teams that anybody would be expected to lose to)

low elo, low SOR means you were bad

 

All FBS teams started the year with an elo rating of 1500 while FCS teams started at 1000.

How well do you think this matches up with your expectations? How about the pre-postseason version? 

 

Team	Elo Rating	Elo Rank	Win-Loss Record	Strength of Schedule	SOS Rank	Expected Wins top 5	Expected Wins top 25	Expected Wins top 75	SOR rank
TCU	1825.08	1	14-2	1591.39	2	10.7302	8.73136	5.74485	1
USC	1816.51	2	14-2	1547.88	8	11.2973	9.45081	6.59885	2
Bowling_Green	1741.88	3	11-3	1490.86	63	10.9233	9.41014	6.76115	13
Houston	1733.29	4	11-4	1568.72	3	10.2216	8.52712	5.94475	7
Tennessee	1732.69	5	13-2	1518.48	25	10.9601	9.26331	6.56292	3
Nevada	1716.9	6	11-3	1530.36	17	10.5293	8.83753	5.99306	8
Baylor	1702.56	7	11-3	1554.91	5	9.94843	8.33774	5.73488	5
Notre_Dame	1697.04	8	11-2	1505.99	42	9.76277	8.38719	6.0887	6
UCLA	1679.79	9	11-5	1559.64	4	11.0594	9.26621	6.49682	11
Tulsa	1677.78	10	11-3	1477.32	83	10.868	9.38256	6.83707	12
Ohio_State	1676.83	11	11-3	1487.2	71	10.9456	9.46049	6.84502	14
Wake_Forest	1674.28	12	11-3	1502.66	44	10.6774	9.14894	6.56534	10
Florida_State	1670.02	13	10-4	1451.52	113	11.0143	9.62445	7.22098	26
Auburn	1665.21	14	12-2	1485.33	75	10.6405	9.1092	6.57889	4
Navy	1663.32	15	9-4	1488.65	66	9.99229	8.61613	6.28363	25
Northern_Illinois	1662.6	16	10-3	1467.05	95	10.4489	9.12018	6.69075	18
Marshall	1657.25	17	12-3	1499.59	47	11.5331	9.9006	7.09221	9
Central_Michigan	1649.76	18	10-4	1491	62	10.8529	9.36049	6.77203	21
Miami_(OH)	1642.08	19	10-3	1460.24	107	10.2835	9.00862	6.76777	17
Georgia_Southern	1637.07	20	9-4	1487.3	70	10.1872	8.78679	6.32559	29
LSU	1634.21	21	9-4	1451.56	112	10.1807	8.89821	6.65297	32
Georgia	1633.92	22	9-4	1543.36	11	9.42162	7.87989	5.40806	16
Georgia_Tech	1630.89	23	9-4	1481.86	78	10.2136	8.83397	6.41195	30
Louisiana_Tech	1629.69	24	10-3	1420.27	129	10.4241	9.17453	7.03855	19
Kansas	1628.82	25	8-5	1513.71	31	9.77732	8.36541	5.9642	37
SMU	1628.67	26	9-4	1509.28	36	9.96042	8.48349	5.95285	23
Colorado	1622.63	27	10-3	1464.97	102	10.0467	8.77696	6.60823	15
North_Carolina	1617.43	28	8-5	1507.67	41	10.0061	8.52672	5.97076	43
Illinois	1616.4	29	9-4	1460.45	106	10.5922	9.27308	6.79893	36
Wisconsin	1613.75	30	9-5	1543.96	10	10.2394	8.54689	5.79111	24
Kentucky	1604.99	31	8-5	1486.86	72	9.81432	8.47748	6.26363	41
Hawaii	1599.53	32	9-4	1445.94	117	10.22	8.88735	6.62065	31
San_Diego_State	1582.71	33	7-6	1508.45	38	9.92789	8.46303	5.96834	54
Iowa_State	1578.53	34	8-5	1486.77	73	10.067	8.62907	6.1691	45
Pittsburgh	1576.76	35	9-4	1492.76	59	9.78242	8.37325	6.08706	22
San_Jose_State	1575.7	36	9-5	1483.99	77	10.9777	9.46942	6.81642	40
Tulane	1573.86	37	7-6	1472.52	89	10.4229	9.07193	6.5992	68
South_Carolina	1572.95	38	9-4	1468.91	94	10.1023	8.74402	6.44117	28
Western_Kentucky	1572.88	39	10-4	1435.42	123	11.0883	9.68789	7.32811	27
Fresno_State	1568.73	40	7-6	1500.56	46	10.0509	8.61782	6.12317	56
North_Texas	1568.35	41	8-5	1537.28	15	9.63165	8.05283	5.45487	33
Middle_Tennessee	1567.69	42	9-5	1451.28	114	10.8466	9.41504	7.06677	38
UAB	1566.12	43	8-5	1496.94	53	9.9827	8.53364	6.08929	44
Texas	1561.75	44	8-5	1528.16	19	9.56949	8.12898	5.73948	34
Ole_Miss	1555.14	45	8-5	1497.53	51	9.95356	8.50463	6.07	42
New_Mexico_State	1551.41	46	8-5	1418.53	130	10.5291	9.27424	7.07288	50
Mississippi_State	1549.82	47	8-5	1498.65	50	9.93548	8.45628	5.97982	39
Oregon_State	1549.22	48	8-5	1442.86	119	10.4332	9.16645	6.91419	49
UMass	1545.79	49	7-6	1433.71	124	10.3739	9.10391	6.91013	71
Kansas_State	1545.11	50	7-6	1476.78	86	10.3087	8.95099	6.51897	65
Appalachian_State	1544.93	51	9-4	1465.13	101	10.4944	9.17224	6.72954	35
Memphis	1543.58	52	10-4	1477.99	81	10.7162	9.21705	6.76304	20
Southern_Miss	1542.85	53	7-6	1488.73	65	10.2506	8.85242	6.33372	62
Penn_State	1539.11	54	8-5	1433.7	125	10.5799	9.34166	7.07759	52
Alabama	1533.69	55	5-7	1500.64	45	8.93065	7.57767	5.41434	80
Ball_State	1528.88	56	7-6	1496.53	54	9.91309	8.53937	6.22084	55
Oklahoma	1528.32	57	8-5	1487.74	69	10.2969	8.87233	6.31118	47
Texas_State	1524.89	58	7-6	1517.15	28	9.77011	8.35978	5.93883	53
South_Alabama	1522.43	59	7-6	1455.98	110	10.5931	9.30372	6.88933	74
Temple	1521.37	60	7-6	1463.49	104	10.225	8.88483	6.56919	64
Texas_A&M	1520.84	61	6-7	1534.03	16	9.54397	7.99389	5.4956	66
Oregon	1520.36	62	7-7	1337.46	133	10.3786	9.1572	6.96302	72
Duke	1519.27	63	5-7	1491.97	61	9.24873	7.96446	5.77453	92
UCF	1517.24	64	7-6	1466.6	97	9.93818	8.64355	6.47547	60
FIU	1512.16	65	8-5	1393.11	131	10.8043	9.64213	7.51652	59
Nebraska	1505.98	66	8-5	1499.21	49	10.1316	8.6756	6.11643	46
Northwestern	1505.09	67	5-7	1540.22	14	8.89353	7.42564	4.99365	76
Oklahoma_State	1502.18	68	6-6	1691.87	1	9.20935	7.63605	5.13282	58
Washington	1498.53	69	5-7	1508.57	37	9.06079	7.76104	5.55714	84
California	1497.23	70	7-6	1497.05	52	9.99814	8.61809	6.21227	57
Stanford	1491.69	71	5-7	1523.33	23	8.6623	7.30616	5.1774	75
UTEP	1486.32	72	7-6	1425.15	128	10.3704	9.10023	6.92801	70
Rutgers	1480.7	73	7-6	1438.53	120	10.5698	9.29718	6.96567	73
UNLV	1480.09	74	5-7	1521.3	24	9.06331	7.67074	5.31508	83
Iowa	1477.44	75	8-5	1469.74	93	10.2607	8.87473	6.45405	48
Cincinnati	1472.84	76	5-7	1554.11	6	8.47394	7.07542	4.88354	69
Akron	1472.12	77	7-6	1517.24	27	9.78658	8.32459	5.86165	51
Purdue	1471.7	78	7-6	1448.99	115	10.3789	9.0582	6.7198	67
UTSA	1459.68	79	5-7	1492.58	60	9.37424	8.05781	5.74511	93
Troy	1459.25	80	8-6	1437.43	122	11.2595	9.86648	7.37702	63
Air_Force	1457.21	81	7-6	1493.14	58	10.2455	8.81177	6.23722	61
Ohio	1452.91	82	5-7	1499.51	48	9.1717	7.88938	5.70058	89
Virginia	1447.92	83	5-7	1466.22	99	9.60042	8.38653	6.18963	101
Louisiana_Monroe	1446.46	84	5-7	1508.26	39	9.14849	7.84656	5.58687	88
Florida	1446.31	85	6-7	1480.95	80	9.89405	8.5123	6.248	79
New_Mexico	1444.97	86	4-8	1550.96	7	8.69554	7.2306	4.86079	97
Army	1440.24	87	6-7	1425.79	127	10.6265	9.42006	7.21248	103
Colorado_State	1438.64	88	3-9	1514.19	30	9.14012	7.77747	5.44401	141
Boise_State	1435.76	89	6-7	1472.94	88	10.1855	8.78005	6.34582	85
Miami_(FL)	1435.51	90	4-8	1490.78	64	9.26778	7.98573	5.79184	114
Texas_Tech	1434.3	91	4-8	1542.74	13	8.58667	7.22758	5.06688	96
Utah_State	1433.9	92	6-7	1510.07	35	9.90418	8.43016	5.92609	77
Maryland	1429.4	93	5-7	1507.74	40	9.17514	7.83932	5.54422	87
Minnesota	1428.39	94	6-7	1477.66	82	10.063	8.64027	6.2308	82
Coastal_Carolina	1413.38	95	4-8	1429.36	126	9.79118	8.65756	6.59037	138
Syracuse	1411.52	96	3-9	1484.22	76	9.03753	7.7443	5.67468	140
Michigan	1410.37	97	3-9	1495.6	56	9.32796	8.02164	5.73227	148
East_Carolina	1408.49	98	3-9	1504.84	43	9.16911	7.83622	5.57704	142
NC_State	1405.68	99	6-7	1475.84	87	10.2978	8.95973	6.55893	91
Virginia_Tech	1404.99	100	5-7	1477.25	84	9.47214	8.2181	5.99737	95
Arkansas	1403.77	101	6-7	1457.61	109	10.2687	8.89606	6.50596	90
Rice	1403.32	102	4-8	1512.61	33	8.98998	7.66774	5.47823	110
Florida_Atlantic	1403.26	103	5-7	1458.68	108	9.72706	8.52715	6.30332	107
Georgia_State	1401.18	104	5-7	1466.42	98	9.57768	8.35786	6.16943	100
Arizona	1398.9	105	4-8	1471.59	91	9.29153	8.10888	6.07867	116
Old_Dominion	1398.61	106	5-7	1438.5	121	9.62059	8.44939	6.39025	104
Louisville	1398.39	107	5-7	1445.85	118	9.66297	8.45113	6.28503	105
Kent_State	1392.62	108	4-8	1493.48	57	9.20639	7.92987	5.74959	112
Wyoming	1392.62	109	5-7	1516.76	29	9.18061	7.78795	5.37956	86
Western_Michigan	1391.84	110	5-7	1454.68	111	9.59272	8.38958	6.25799	102
Liberty	1385.19	111	5-7	1357.44	132	10.0897	9.09657	7.29992	115
Arkansas_State	1379.82	112	3-9	1470.06	92	9.68582	8.43855	6.12633	158
Buffalo	1372.41	113	3-9	1488.47	67	9.21681	7.92309	5.72427	145
Indiana	1365.1	114	4-8	1472.41	90	9.27522	7.97685	5.79631	113
Vanderbilt	1357.83	115	3-9	1495.74	55	8.94555	7.58413	5.40043	134
Arizona_State	1349.95	116	2-10	1542.97	12	8.58651	7.20672	5.02773	153
Louisiana	1346.21	117	3-9	1487.86	68	9.54149	8.22532	5.83208	154
Washington_State	1344.93	118	5-7	1461.31	105	9.46593	8.19065	5.96534	94
West_Virginia	1341.41	119	3-9	1486.11	74	9.24072	7.92272	5.68376	144
Charlotte	1331.71	120	3-9	1518.23	26	8.9845	7.61276	5.3524	135
Toledo	1321.88	121	3-9	1529.27	18	8.88246	7.48603	5.19777	127
BYU	1318.66	122	3-9	1513.68	32	8.77151	7.48353	5.42231	126
Missouri	1314.6	123	2-10	1525.55	22	8.66897	7.25423	5.07042	155
Michigan_State	1302.43	124	2-10	1512.13	34	9.1918	7.82474	5.46465	166
Eastern_Michigan	1299.47	125	2-10	1477.18	85	9.28228	8.05195	5.95286	168
Clemson	1299.39	126	3-9	1544.61	9	8.80419	7.32743	4.92381	119
UConn	1297.24	127	1-12	1528.06	20	9.55968	8.04897	5.61547	178
James_Madison	1296.74	128	3-9	1481.6	79	9.42442	8.14097	5.88981	149
South_Florida	1252.68	129	2-11	1466.73	96	10.5054	9.16757	6.69025	179
Boston_College	1252.38	130	2-10	1527.71	21	8.83453	7.50032	5.29808	159
Utah	1234.66	131	2-10	1463.66	103	9.24295	8.03339	5.97463	167
North_Dakota_State	1221.43	132	12-3	1028.77	165	14.6817	14.4356	13.7445	78
Youngstown_State	1211.94	133	9-6	1122.22	138	14.0851	13.5751	12.4868	133
Lafayette	1211.7	134	10-4	997.563	184	13.7682	13.5863	13.0629	108
Kennesaw_State	1195.08	135	1-11	1465.45	100	9.20479	7.90017	5.77976	177
Illinois_State	1176.73	136	10-4	1063.96	150	13.5621	13.2426	12.4116	98
Cal_Poly	1139.08	137	6-5	1065.35	149	10.4646	10.1512	9.47954	117
Grambling	1134.74	138	9-4	1002.73	181	12.5834	12.3315	11.7616	99
Idaho_State	1115.09	139	7-5	1036.74	158	11.7236	11.5134	10.9358	128
Southern_Illinois	1104.26	140	8-6	962.882	194	12.6546	12.4014	11.7347	125
Western_Illinois	1095.69	141	7-5	1073.24	146	11.6485	11.3831	10.665	124
Prairie_View_A&M	1089.71	142	9-4	979.953	189	12.794	12.6327	12.1701	109
UC_Davis	1077.05	143	9-3	1004.48	180	11.788	11.6222	11.1482	81
Montana_State	1076.02	144	8-5	1018.33	172	12.7607	12.5734	12.0368	131
Mississippi_Valley_State	1068.43	145	6-5	1048.87	155	10.5846	10.3312	9.75617	122
Colgate	1062.76	146	6-5	1033.01	162	10.7237	10.5202	9.98165	129
Weber_State	1058.6	147	7-5	1018.22	173	11.7834	11.613	11.1214	136
Jacksonville_State	1039.05	148	4-8	1312.69	134	10.1378	9.19858	7.55588	151
Northern_Iowa	1037.78	149	5-6	1133.08	136	10.3047	9.89397	9.01404	143
Northern_Colorado	1032.72	150	7-4	1135.99	135	11.7612	11.5736	11.0345	132
Pennsylvania	1026.77	151	4-6	1091.77	144	9.35604	9.00005	8.29268	147
Furman	1024.33	152	6-5	1008.05	177	10.5615	10.3283	9.84709	120
Georgetown	1020.85	153	5-6	1122.73	137	10.4896	10.1495	9.3431	150
East_Tennessee_State	1017.43	154	6-5	985.093	187	10.7986	10.6457	10.2245	137
Holy_Cross	1017.35	155	8-5	1069.9	147	12.4894	12.1626	11.391	118
Sacramento_State	1013.49	156	6-5	1035.24	161	10.5884	10.3379	9.77252	123
VMI	1010.31	157	5-6	1005.85	179	10.7203	10.5261	10.0411	161
The_Citadel	1007.62	158	5-6	1030.11	164	10.6611	10.4235	9.83411	157
Columbia	1007.06	159	6-4	970.959	192	9.86844	9.76359	9.45475	111
Yale	1005.49	160	5-5	1008.42	176	9.55326	9.32886	8.8851	121
Chattanooga	1002.31	161	7-5	1106.24	141	10.92	10.5023	9.78773	106
Fordham	1001.79	162	4-7	1115.21	139	10.4454	10.098	9.31307	169
Jackson_State	992.811	163	6-6	1061.43	151	11.3535	10.9955	10.2662	146
Lehigh	992.214	164	6-6	1095.92	143	11.5127	11.1989	10.4536	152
Murray_State	991.176	165	6-5	986.487	186	10.8092	10.6607	10.2399	139
BethuneCookman	986.944	166	4-7	1017.72	174	10.6945	10.4826	9.95472	173
Cornell	985.44	167	5-5	1027.42	167	9.71994	9.52064	9.01381	130
Wofford	984.645	168	5-6	1025.83	169	10.5814	10.34	9.81391	156
Princeton	976.895	169	4-6	1007.99	178	9.69956	9.50246	9.03663	160
Alabama_State	973.737	170	4-7	1021.98	170	10.6198	10.3846	9.84927	172
Montana	972.166	171	5-6	1028.24	166	10.7755	10.6009	10.106	162
Sam_Houston_State	969.453	172	1-11	1447.78	116	9.62674	8.40985	6.25888	182
Bucknell	969.342	173	5-6	989.195	185	10.8233	10.6846	10.286	163
Alcorn_State	963.692	174	5-6	967.047	193	10.8447	10.7219	10.3644	164
Portland_State	956.567	175	4-7	1040.19	157	10.6129	10.3657	9.78844	171
South_Dakota_State	948.382	176	3-8	1066.47	148	10.629	10.3649	9.69405	181
Indiana_State	925.7	177	4-7	1102.98	142	10.4969	10.155	9.3341	170
South_Dakota	923.911	178	4-7	1050.81	153	10.7317	10.5255	9.95293	174
Eastern_Washington	915.467	179	3-8	1042.21	156	10.7288	10.5251	9.97396	183
Brown	914.788	180	3-7	978.464	191	9.86363	9.75502	9.43538	175
Samford	911.994	181	3-8	1036.44	159	10.4653	10.2129	9.71076	180
Florida_A&M	910.784	182	4-7	1111.58	140	10.1994	9.80224	9.03237	165
Alabama_A&M	904.543	183	3-8	1001.07	182	10.8256	10.6874	10.2848	188
Harvard	892.714	184	3-7	979.126	190	9.86476	9.75696	9.43924	176
Mercer	892.464	185	2-9	1032.71	163	10.7292	10.528	9.99064	193
Northern_Arizona	885.65	186	3-8	1055.95	152	10.759	10.5713	10.0385	185
ArkansasPine_Bluff	882.669	187	3-8	1014.99	175	10.7241	10.5253	10.0108	184
North_Dakota	878.696	188	3-8	1036.28	160	10.7703	10.5918	10.0872	187
Idaho	878.296	189	3-8	1049.2	154	10.7593	10.5723	10.0438	186
Texas_Southern	874.82	190	3-8	983.899	188	10.8358	10.706	10.328	190
Missouri_State	840.495	191	2-9	1084.73	145	10.6106	10.3394	9.6609	192
Western_Carolina	840.181	192	2-9	1018.46	171	10.7986	10.641	10.19	194
Southern	833.506	193	2-9	1027.32	168	10.5028	10.2497	9.73291	191
Dartmouth	825.51	194	2-8	1000.76	183	9.8344	9.70451	9.33112	189