The Transformation of the New York Jets Part 2... Trade Philosophy

[Spoof]

Transformation of the New York Jets Part 2: Trading Philosophy

 

The Jets team that was inherited is all over the place. It lacked set direction, and the star "Scramble" QB was a jack of all trades, master of none. His speed was great, but not elite. His arm is strong, but not a cannon. And importantly, he was the second highest paid member of the roster and not someone that I could hold onto at that price. That meant an acceptance that between bonus losses, cuts and bringing in salary and draft picks, I was going to have to set a target for Dead Cap, and live with it for a year. I set that target at $30m. I got pretty close (at time of writing it is $32.74m and I am no longer trading away players as the core I have built is what I wanted).

 

This set me onto two paths. I either needed to trade for an established and highly elite QB, or I needed to get involved with drafting higher. I was already at pick number 3, so there was every chance that Hiram Maronde (who I still believe is the best QB in this class but will admit his archetype and College Stats sway my opinion on that greatly due to how I want to setup), might fall to me there, but in reality, the Panthers were very vocal that they wanted out for number 1. I should point out at this point I was a little naive to how the potential system worked, and also just how involved the scouting process would become, but even if I did know, I still would have made the early move up to be master of my own fate this year around.

I actually have a rule on trading, which is to use an already established Trade Valuation formula. There are TWO of these formulas. One is the Jimmy Johnson model, which is a much older model (see here for how its values are: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp) and the Rich Hill Model. The Rich Hill Model is the one that is generally accepted to be used by GM's in the NFL, and its also a model he has altered the valuations of several times. For reference, I use this as a value chart:

Note: Any picks in the following year should lose between 10%-15% of their value, and picks then lose about 5% for every additional year.

Its not perfect, but it's a great tool to get an eyeball on how much value you are getting. However, I wanted Pick 1 more than anyone, so I was willing to blast absolutely beyond that value chart if it made things happen as I needed it to and ensure I wasn't then out of favour in the QB market. The trade with Carolina wasn't my first one, but it was the mostly publicised and league impacting. The value breaks down as:

CAROLINA PANTHERS SEND:
Pick 1.1 (1000)
2025 3rd Round Pick (CAR) (64.24)
2026 4th Round Pick (CAR) (30.15)

TOTAL VALUE: 1094.39

NEW YORK JETS SEND:

Pick 1.3 (514.33)
DE Aaron Stokes (80 OVR | Rated as high 1st Round pick around 6 range - 446.15)
2025 1st Round Pick (NYJ) (462.89)
2026 3rd Round Pick (NYJ) (63.77)

TOTAL VALUE: 1,487.14

With that in mind, I have MASSIVELY overpaid to move up those two spots. Panthers will know what the other offer they got was, but in reality I've likely been fleeced. However, I now control the draft. It is a price worth paying to be able to enact a series of other plans I had laid out in Free Agency and other Trades.

 

Lets go through some other trades made as well:

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Las Vegas Raiders trade:

WR Terrence Hoffman (78 OVR - 4th Round Grade due to age/contract - 43.01)
OT Michael Archer (65 OVR - 5th Round Grade due to age - 14.8)
[2024] pick 24 in the 6th round (5.56)

TOTAL VALUE: 63.37

New York Jets Send:

Pick 3.31 (40.26)
Pick 5.25 (11.08)

TOTAL VALUE: (51.34)

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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS SEND:

WR - Walter Nwachukwu (78 OVR - 202.82)
SS - Daryl Lee (85 OVR - 202.61)

TOTAL VALUE: 405.43

NEW YORK JETS SEND:

[2024] 3rd Round Pick (NYJ) (74.59)
[2024] 5th Round Pick Via CAR (17.29)
[2025] 2nd Round Pick (NYJ) (153.33)
[2025] 2nd Round Pick via LAR (73.62)
[2025] 5th Round Pick via DEN (8.52)
CB - Brendan Hightower (57 OVR - 25.82)

TOTAL VALUE: 353.19

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NEW YORK JETS SEND:

QB - Lamar Johnson (50.18)

NEW YORK GIANTS SEND:

Pick 4.4 (36.06)

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WASHINGTON COMMANDERS SEND:
OLB Joseph Patchen (9.27)
ILB Mark Keesey (27)
C Joel Hudson (40.26)

TOTAL VALUE: 76.53

NEW YORK JETS SEND:

WR Terrence Hoffman - (78 OVR - 43.01)
ILB Erik Arredondo - (68 OVR - 27)

TOTAL VALUE: 70.01

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DENVER BRONCOS SENDS:
WR Donald Galligan (138.15)
DT David Digorilamo (28.22)
OG David McNeal (179.54)
SS Vincente Bugarin (9.07)

TOTAL VALUE: 354.98

NEW YORK JETS SEND: 
DT Russell Garban (NYC retains 4m in year 1 salary)  (179.54)
SS Daryl Lee (85 OVR - 202.61)
WR Scott Coyle (12.66)
OT Michael Archer (27)

TOTAL VALUE: 421.81

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NEW YORK JETS SEND:

OLB - Joseph Patchen (9.27)
2026 2nd Round Pick (145.66)

DALLAS COWBOYS SEND:

OLB - Jacob Wiseman (179.54)

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Cleveland Browns Send:

OLB - Larry Bushong 
2024 3rd Round Pick

2

New York Jets Send:

2024 4th Round Pick (NYJ)
2024 4th Round Pick (TEN)
2024 4th Round Pick (NYG)


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Arizona Cardinals Send:

OG Daniel Moussaeu 
2024 2nd Round Pick (Pick 60 - ARI)
Total Value: 224.49

New York Jets Send:
OG Jason Haynes (Jets will take 100% of the salary)
ILB Jack Ousley  (Jets will take 50% of the salary)
2024 3rd Round Pick (Pick 77 - Min)
2024 5th Round Pick (Pick 133 - NYJ)
2024 6th Round Pick (Pick 196 - NYJ)
2025 3rd Round Pick (CAR)
Total Value: 223.39

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PHI Sends

QB Luke Trahan (112.03)

NYJ Sends

OG Mark Kurzweil (56.02)

2025 6th Rounder (8)

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Titans Send:

Pick #54 (103.56)
2025 2nd Round (via New Orleans) (135)

 

New York Jets send:
Danny Kipnis (260)
Pick #130 (18.49)


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Minnesota Vikings Send:

Pick 13 - First Round (335.74)

Total Value: 335.74

New York Jets Send:
Pick 35 - Second Round (170.37)
Pick 79 - Third Round (57.27)
Pick 166 - Sixth Round (8.3)
Pick 187 - Sixth Round (5.2)
2025 3rd Round Pick (60)
2025 4th Round Pick (36)

Total Value: 337.32 

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New York Jets Send:

Pick 13 (335.74)

New York Giants Send:

Pick 23 (244.86)
Pick 64 (79.69)
Pick 134 (16.91)

TOTAL: 341.46

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Tennessee Titans Send:

2025 1st Round Pick (227.43
2026 1st Round Pick (Titans) (216.06)
2026 1st Round Pick (New Orleans) (381.33)
TE Randy Wright (295.92)

TOTAL VALUE: 1,120.74

New York Jets Send:
 

2024 #1 Pick (1000)
2025 Denver Second Round pick (71.72)
2026 6th Round Pick (7.58)

TOTAL VALUE: 1079.3

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PHEW! That's a lot of trading. If we do a global "IN VS OUT" Then:

Jets Send: 4,874.37
Jets Receive: 4797.26

Overall then, and with a massive overpay initially for number 1 overall, I've managed to eek back some trade values. Some clearly still not in my favour, some where. Obviously for some teams, shedding cap or gaining youth matters to them more than short term valuations as well (and the same for myself) so this metric also needs some longer term thought process to it. Also being able to shift number 1 and grab Trahan was a huge pair of deals for me, as I have the "Maronde" style project QB but someone who is also a bit more of a known entity as well.

The main philosophy may look a little scattergun, but if you go through it you should see that I have two philosophies. Number 1) I really don't like the Draft. Nothing to do with the game, I just hate betting my future on the unknown. So shedding as many late round picks across the next few years was a key decision to try and grab some (even if older) players whose capabilities are known. I also see Free Agency as a key factor in a squad rebuild. I have been VERY aggressive in all but two of my Free Agency "auctions" (the two I bailed on immediately involved the market busting 49ers offers on O line and Linebackers - I wasn't getting involved in something so ridiculous). But also, there is a key shape taking place now on both sides of the ball, I have a first and three seconds this year, meaning I should get some strong quality youth, and I also now have an absolutely stellar O Line that will protect Trahan and my Run Game in general. They are also not exactly bad Pass Blockers either despite being Run Blockers primarily all over.

The chart isn't perfect, but it is a great way to make sure you don't get lost in the weeds.... especially if the plan all along was to control the flow of information and trades at the very top of the draft whilst you worked Free Agency. I don't have my own 1st next year, so my entire season goal now is to make that Draft pick as late in the round as possible. But I do at least have a first now after trading away number 1.

 

Next post will be a few weeks away: The Draft Recap of the New York Jets

Edited January 27 by Spoof