[2024] Jieret's Mock Draft 2.0 (1/22/24)

[Jieret]

Link to previous mock: https://www.simfba.com/topic/6129-2024-jierets-mock-draft-v10-1124/

#    Team    Player    Previous Draft Pick    
1-TEN: WR Paul Canha, Alabama    
Previously: QB Hiram Maronde, UCLA (by NYJ)    

A trade that no one saw coming sees the Jets bail out of the first spot.  Did they sour on Maronde that much?  Regardless, the Titans have dropped plenty of hints suggesting a Run & Shoot offense is in the works.  With that in mind, Canha would fit the new-look Titans like a glove.

2-MIA: DT Logan Lopez, Houston    
Previously: RB Clayton McGee, FSU    

Apparently I forgot Gregory Sellers existed in the last mock?  With RB obviously not a need, the Dolphins shore up their D-Line where they have an aging David Buchheit and a whole lot of nothing else.  Lopez should immediately start alongside the veteran.

3-CAR: ILB Kenny Daniel, Wake Forest    
Previously: DE Whit Wilson, Oklahoma State    

I think the Draft Guide might force Carolina to take Daniel here. As much as they'd love to take McGee to boost their offense, they need a force in the middle of the defense and I'd bet the Giants take the Guide's top-ranked player if McGee is off the board at 4.

4-NYG: RB Clayton McGee, FSU  
Previously: WR Paul Canha, Alabama    

There's a big pile of literal nothing in the Giants' RB stable right now.  McGee will fill that stable and then some, that's how good he is.

5-CAR: DE Whit Wilson, Oklahoma State    
Previously: ILB Kenny Daniel, Wake Forest    

In the end Carolina's first two picks don't really change from the previous mock, just the order.  With Aaron Stokes, Russell Barnes, and Peter Smith all out of contract after this year, I think some of Carolina's mid-tier pending FAs like Eric Stephens could move on.  Wilson will be a great replacement for him.

6-NO: SS Garrett Smith, Baylor    
Previously: SS Garrett Smith, Baylor    

Our first repeat pick.  Hiram Maronde being available would definitely give Bingo pause, especially after watching Hiram off for 465 total yards against his Colorado Buffaloes last season.  But the Saints roster may not be built for a QB like Maronde, NO won't mind getting a freak of nature like Smith instead.

7-HOU: QB Hiram Maronde, UCLA    
Previously: DT Logan Lopez, Houston    

A lot of shine seems to have come off of Maronde's rose in the draft process, but he is still a first-round quarterback.  I'm not sure what Houston's plan for QB is, but since Maronde fell into their laps why not take him and go from there?

8-ATL: OG Alex Hitchens, Arkansas    
Previously: OG Alex Hitchens, Arkansas    

The board is the same for Atlanta as it was last time, I haven't seen a reason since the last mock for the Falcons to move away from Hitchens.

9-SEA: OT J'Mon Wolters, Utah    
Previously: RB Richard Bianchi, Hawaii    

I'm projecting with this pick (Perhaps not as much as I did with the previous mock).  But I think Seattle chooses to let Jacob Kerns go in FA and spends big in the 2025 offseason seeing as how SF and ARI are rebuilding and LAR is aging.  But it does feel like the players most appropriate for this spot are Wolters and the CBs, and Seattle has enough young corners that they probably don't want to go there with a first-round pick.  Wolters will provide rotational and injury depth until Kerns leaves then slide into his LT spot.

10-LAC: DE Ty Bogdanovich, Indiana    
Previously: OT J'Mon Wolters, Utah    

I have no idea who @Dean would pick here with this board.  Wolters would have been the dream, even more than before as it seems the Chargers want to go more run-heavy.  With that in mind Logan Njoku seems like a poor fit, especially as WR3 behind Keith Davis and Fernando Owens.  LAC also has a trio of excellent corners, so Voth et al are out.  Bianchi could be in play here, except Alonzo Snead is one of the few players in the Escarcega trade who is a passable starter.  We'll go with the top speed rusher on the board in Bogdanovich.  Wind him up next to DT Jesus Gonzalez and watch the sacks pile up.

11-JAX: CB Sam Voth, Illinois    
Previously: CB Sam Voth, Illinois    

I think the Jags are happy enough with their WR and RB rooms to not take Bianchi or Njoku, so Voth remains the pick here.

12-DET: CB Jonathan Parks, Ohio    
Previously: WR Arden Ejiofor, Louisiana    

A prime spot for Bianchi, except they just traded for Cooper McGough.  Ejiofor or Njoku are possibilities, except now I think their CB room needs more love than the WRs do.  Jonathan Parks could be headed to TSUN to bolster a CB corps with Christopher Salgado ready to call it a career, Robert Smith likely Washington or Denver trade bait next season, and not a lot of youth behind them besides Mike Pressly.

13-NYG: WR Arden Ejiofor, Louisiana    
Previously: ILB Davis Covey, Charlotte (by MIN)    

Last time I had the Giants taking Njoku, albeit at 23.  So why the switch in which WR gets called?  I'm guessing the Giants will want to run something like Pistol concepts, where Ejiofor's superior agility and route running gives him the nod here.  Don't think you're giving up on speed by taking young Arden though - he actually ran a faster 40 at the Combine than Njoku.

14-GB: C Ruben Shazier, Alabama    
Previously: C Ruben Shazier, Alabama    

Shazier is still a ready-made replacement for Barry Downs, nothing's happened to change my mind there.  Bianchi and Njoku continue to slide as the Pack don't have a need for either one.

15-CLE: WR Logan Njoku, Kentucky    
Previously: CB Rashard Hilliard, Georgia State    

Hilliard is still on the board, but this time let's give the Browns a speedster to terrorize slot corners.  He's not all wheels either, Njoku caught a very impressive 68.22% of his targets last year.  He could be a crucial safety blanket for James Rivera.

16-BAL: OT Francisco Smith, Washington    
Previously: OT Francisco Smith, Washington    

33rd-overall pick Chris Butera played well out of position at RT, but there's no reason he needs to continue there.  Butera and Smith would make a brutal right side of the offensive line that lets Baltimore continue to deliver beatdowns with their run game.  I don't think the Ravens can afford to extend both LT Robert Anderson and QB David Chop, so this would make sense on a financial level with Smith acting as Anderson's replacement.

17-NE: RB Richard Bianchi, Hawaii    
Previously: DE Vince Gresham, Oregon State    

Fish Liggins was a fun story, but neither he nor 6th-round pick Jerry Lawson are a long-term solution to join Rashaan Lyons in the Pats backfield.  Bianchi would be an incredible weapon for New England; he, Matthew Cunningham, and Danny Maronde give Lyons no shortage of options and could be the core of a long-term dynamic offense in Foxborough.

18-BUF: OG Felix Rodriguez, Temple    
Previously: OG Felix Rodriguez, Temple    

I really tried to find a fit I liked better for Buffalo in this mock 2.0.  But I just couldn't find one, even with the Bills signing Louis Perez in FA.  Morris Tye (who came over in a guard swap with Denver) is a FA after this season, and with Buffalo only having 27M in cap space and stud corner Alvin Annan among others up for extensions I have a hard time seeing Tye re-signed. Rodriguez can learn without getting thrown into the fire immediately and take over next season.

19-TB: FS Kyle Reimold, Central Michigan    
Previously: CB Stansly Alvarez, LSU    

New management in Tampa, who dis?  It'll be fascinating to see how @Ape and @Dakotagreer rebuild the roster, but one thing that's become apparent since they took over is a desire to get back to the physicality they used to have.  They could go in any number of directions, but I'll plug in the consensus top free safety here.  It's not a position of NEED need, Daniel Lopez is a starter-level player, even if he won't excite anyone.  But Reimold would give the Bucs an active and disruptive safety tandem that no offense will enjoy playing against.

20-PHI: ILB Davis Covey, Charlotte    
Previously: DT Dante Gates, Kansas    

Shortly after the first mock was released, @SageBow mentioned that Philly was looking to BPA with this pick.  Fair, although I still expect DT to be addressed in the middle rounds, at the very least.  So with that said, I have them taking... ANOTHER ILB in the first round?  Well, you did say BPA, Sage.  But Christian Palardy desperately needs a better partner in the middle of that defense, and both he and Covey (the Draft Guide's #15 player) would thrive in a 3-4 Spread defense.

21-CHI: CB Rashard Hilliard, Georgia State    
Previously: FS Kyle Reimold, Central Michigan    

Scheme fits are mostly responsible for Hilliard dropping down this far, but Chicago would be happy for it.  The Bears seem to be transitioning from a zone coverage style to man, and Hilliard would be a great value pick for them  (Draft Guide's #12 overall) even if he doesn't see starting minutes right away.

22-SF: DE Vince Gresham, Oregon State    
Previously: DE Ty Bogdanovich, Indiana    

Russell Latimer's time in San Fran is done.  But I'm not sure Blake Smith fits their style of play, so let's hedge some bets and put the versatile Gresham here.  He fits a multiplicity of defensive schemes while still contributing no matter what he's asked to do, and the Niners certainly need the D-Line help.

23-NYJ: WR Trevor Wood, USC    
Previously: WR Logan Njoku, Kentucky (by NYG)    The Jets only have three WRs on the roster (counting FA Charles Thomas, who should sign soon), and Thomas is the only one who will be signed past this season.  Both Donald Galligan and Walter Nwachukwu could be re-signed given the Jets' massive amount of space next year, but they still need a young WR to be a long-term answer.  As Julian Longacre's favorite target at USC, Wood has productivity in spades, and his style of play plus his Combine results make him a natural fit for Gotham Green.

24-ATL: TE Hakeem Judd, Texas State    
Previously: OG Corey Cabrera, San Jose State    

Between the Hitchens pick and the likely re-signing of Kyle Schneider in FA, there's no need to double-dip at the guard position like I had them doing in the previous mock.  There's not an obvious meet of need+value here; I don't think Stansly Alvarez is a scheme fit, the Falcons are set at WR, and I think they will let Chris Frazier continue to run the show so no Blake Smith.  With all that said, why not take the best TE on the board in Texas State's Judd?  Atlanta needs someone an heir apparent to Jin Zhong, and since Judd is the only TE with a first-round grade why not take him while you can?

25-DAL: QB Andrew Solano, TCU    
Previously: OT Tony Varvaro, Northern Illinois    

Dallas has been very quiet on the FA front as best I can tell.  The most likely pick still seems to be Varvaro with Neil Hankins's pending FA , but I felt like having a bit of fun here.  Andrew Solano's draft stock seems like it's risen a bit in the past few weeks and without a lot of glaring needs, why not grab a successor to Jessie Noel while you still can?  I think Solano is a better fit in the Cowboys offensive system than Blake Smith, and the TCU man certainly won't be there at Dallas's next pick, #57.

26-MIA: QB Blake Smith, North Texas    
Previously: QB Blake Smith, North Texas    

The Dolphins still need a bridge plan for life after Dean Hammonds, and there's no guarantee they'll be in a position to grab someone like Julian Longacre next year.  Miami can get Smith now and let him learn for a year before making that Hammonds decision.

27-KC: OT Brad Adams, San Diego State    
Previously: WR Trevor Wood, USC    

The Chiefs need actual tackles on the roster besides Michael Garrett (2 UDFAs are the only other ones), and I think Brad Adams is the best option for the style of offense it feels like KC wants to use.

28-ARI: OT Tony Varvaro, Northern Illinois    
Previously: CB Jonathan Parks, Ohio    

Arizona has no tackles on the roster.  As much as they badly want a WR like Sean Plutko, they just can't ignore that gaping hole.

29-PIT: WR Sean Plutko, Texas State    
Previously: ILB Carlos Blacknall, North Carolina    

Except for second-year Daniel Ennis III, every wideout on the Steelers roster is out of contract after 2024.  Paul Gurule will definitely get re-signed, but I'm not sure if any of the others will be.  At 6'2", 224, Plutko adds size and physicality to a WR room that didn't have a lot of it.

30-JAX: CB Stansly Alvarez, LSU    
Previously: WR Sean Plutko, Texas State    

The Jags get a steal in the Draft Guide's 17th-rated player. (Seriously why so many zone teams)  Yes, they're double-dipping at CB, but have you seen what that room looks like right now?  However you want to line them up, Voth and Alvarez will be a potent duo alongside Franklin Kirchner.

31-JAX: ILB Joe Yanda, Utah State    
Previously: DT Phillip Bell, BGSU    

David Powers is on the downswing of his career, and last year's sixth-round pick Travis Lucas is the only other ILB on the team.  The Jags desperately need a dude to take over for Powers, or even play next to him if they move to a 3-4 defense.  Joe Yanda is the most well-rounded of the remaining inside 'backers, grading well in the Combine's run and coverage drills, thus making him the best option for JAX.

32-CAR: OLB Rasheed Downs, Notre Dame    
Previously: OLB Rasheed Downs, Notre Dame    

I didn't see a fit I liked better on the board, so Downs once again goes to Carolina at the end of the first.  The Panthers are active enough in FA to make me think they're not looking at WMU's Chandler McKay, and I can't see them drafting SJSU OG Corey Cabrera just to park him for three years behind Paul Caruso and Patrick Whitaker.

[SageBow]

Awesome post.

More interested in if the Panthers or Jaguars survive the 3 First Rounders curse. Both went full defense too!

[alexfall862]

9 hours ago, SageBow said:

Awesome post.

More interested in if the Panthers or Jaguars survive the 3 First Rounders curse. Both went full defense too!

What's the curse?

[SageBow]

On 1/23/2024 at 12:55 AM, alexfall862 said:

What's the curse?

Comes from the previous sim. Teams that had (3) first round picks tended to pick all busts or only had one guy pan out. I don't have all the examples, but notably the Jags one year got a bust OT, bust RB, and a decent SS with their 3 first rounders. I think the Bengals were another victim of the 3 Firsts Curse

[npklemm]

1 hour ago, SageBow said:

Comes from the previous sim. Teams that had (3) first round picks tended to pick all busts or only had one guy pan out. I don't have all the examples, but notably the Jags one year got a bust OT, bust RB, and a decent SS with their 3 first rounders. I think the Bengals were another victim of the 3 Firsts Curse

Bungles drafted Blake Shell over Brian Brown. They had 3 consecutive top 10 picks, and they were all just "Okay"

[SageBow]

3 hours ago, npklemm said:

Bungles drafted Blake Shell over Brian Brown. They had 3 consecutive top 10 picks, and they were all just "Okay"

Oh yeah, bad QB in respect to Brian Brown, a mid DE, and a burnt toast CB was the Bungles 3 Firsts Curse.