[2024] Jieret's Mock Draft v1.0 (1/1/24)

[Jieret]

Merry New Year!  No trades mocked here, maybe in a later version if I'm feeling froggy (and I magically have time).

I could put more words here, but you wouldn't care about them.

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1-NYJ: QB Hiram Maronde, UCLA.  
Spoof has been really busy paring the roster down towards a run-heavy scheme (22 players as of this writing!).  You don't do that without knowing who your centerpiece is going to be, and the dual-threat wunderkind from UCLA fits to a T.

2-MIA: RB Clayton McGee, Florida State
My first pass had Utah tackle J'Mon Wolters here, but it seems like Wolters's stock has slipped some in recent weeks. I get the feeling that Miami would like to trade with someone who wants to move up a few spots to guarantee their choice of player, and takes Wolters later.  But for now we'll reunite Owner/GM Kirby with his FSU bell cow.  McGee is a true three-down back that can be asked to do it all - running, receiving, pass blocking.

3-CAR: DE Whit Wilson, Oklahoma State
McGee would have been perfect for the Panthers offense, but with him gone Carolina gets their replacement for pending FA Eric Stephens.  Wilson is a heady player that can slot into a multitude of schemes and will happily rack up the TFLs no matter what.

4-NYG: WR Paul Canha, Alabama
WR and DT are two positions the Giants have not seriously pursued in Free Agency, so this could easily be Logan Lopez.  But Canha grades higher, so he goes here.  The Alabama standout has the speed to easily punish defenses for creeping up on the run and the smarts to find the right zones on broken plays and choice routes.

5-CAR: ILB Kenny Daniel, Wake Forest
Knowing Jambo and Sarge they would prefer to trade down, but we're not doing that here.  Fortunately for them the Draft Guide's top-rated player falls to #5.  Daniel is known as an aggressive tackling machine, averaging 19.5 TFLs a season in college.  But he is no slouch in the passing game either as a pass rusher or a coverage backer.  Daniel is a rare difference-maker as an off-ball LB.

6-NO: SS Garrett Smith, Baylor
I had this whole write-up done for Illinois CB Sam Voth going here, then realized the Saints have no strong safeties on the roster.  Well then, that was simple.  It's rare for a strong safety to go this high, much less top-15, but Smith is that rare of a prospect.  Smith is a playmaker pure and simple, no matter where he is.  He's put plenty of examples on tape at Baylor, and his Pro Day and combine results back the film up.

7-HOU: DT Logan Lopez, Louisville
Wolters could fit here, but we'll play the positional scarcity card here with the expectation that Houston will address the slightly deeper OT class in the second round.  Lopez is a monster in the trenches, placing top-5 for his position in EVERY measurement.  Whether by his lonesome or paired with last year's 4th-round pick Wilton St. Brown, Lopez will dominate the line of scrimmage for years to come.

8-ATL: OG Alex Hitchens, Arkansas
Hitchens is a nimble road-grader who generates power throughout his entire body.  Not only does he have the strength to win in a heads-up matchup against a defensive tackle, he's quick and sudden enough to be very effective in power and trap-blocking schemes.  Hitchens is a match made in heaven for Atlanta, who badly needs not just a guard, but a cornerstone on the line.

9-SEA: RB Richard Bianchi, Hawaii
Yes, John Woodward is still there.  But he probably won't be by the time Seattle's ready to challenge for the playoffs and Yacksel Knox is more of a complimentary back than anything. Bianchi is too hard to pass up from a value standpoint and gives Kemoko Allard a potent and versatile weapon.

10-LAC: OT J'Mon Wolters, Utah
Honestly a cornerback like Voth is probably the better fit, especially since the Chargers took tackle Jeimer Valera in the first last year.  But third-year Austin Iglesias is the only other tackle on the roster. His play hasn't been good enough to stop the Bolts from picking up a talent like Wolters.
Consider this a pick of opportunity, with an eye towards cornerbacks Zac McCutchen and Arnold Smith in the second.

11-JAX: CB Sam Voth, Illinois
The Jags are the immediate beneficiary of Wolters's slide as Voth would have been a great fit for Los Angeles right in front of them.  Voth and 2023 3rd-round pick Trayvon Johnson make a promising young CB duo, and Voth's 4.43 shows the ability to keep up with any assignment he gets.

12-DET: WR Arden Ejiofor, Louisiana
The Lions, on the other hand, would be gutted that neither Bianchi nor Wolters slipped to them.  Without a "safe stud" to pick up, why not go the other way and swing for the fences?  Ejiofor put up blistering numbers at the combine, raising his draft stock from a third-round evaluation all the way up to a legitimate first-round option.  Concerns over Sun Belt level of competition (Texas State excepted) will hover over him, but timed 4.35 speed paired with smooth route running will make any team think about rolling the dice. 

13-MIN: ILB Davis Covey, Charlotte
This feels like a pick similar to the Chargers getting Wolters.  Ryan Hicks was servicable manning the middle for the Vikings last year as a rookie, but Covey is a natural fit in 43-style schemes like Minnesota's.  His position-leading 3.90 shuttle time highlights his ability to close on a ball carrier or receiver entering his zone.

14-GB: C Ruben Shazier, Alabama
Shazier may be known as a mauler in the run game (18 career pancakes), but he's no slouch in pass blocking either (0 career sacks allowed).  His athleticism and football IQ are top-notch, ensuring he won't be a liability to the Packers' passing game.  Current starter Barry Downs is out of contract after this season, and this locks up the position long-term while not forcing Green Bay to overpay starter money for Downs if they don't want to.

15-CLE: CB Rashard Hilliard, Georgia State
Hilliard has a nose for the ball.  It doesn't matter if the ball is being carried or if it's in the air; if it's near him, he'll be involved somehow.  In addition to excellent pass defense (30 career PD, 7 INT), Hilliard also provides solid run support (140 career tackles).  That's a welcome bonus in the rough-and-tumble AFC North.

16-BAL: OT Francisco Smith, Washington
Current LT Robert Anderson has one more year at a $10.5M cap hit and is no lock to be re-signed.  Drafting Smith lets Chris Butera kick inside to his natural guard position while Francisco gets pave the road for Stanley Piper, Dietrich Smith (no relation), and David Chop.

17-NE: DE Vince Gresham, Oregon State
WR Logan Njoku is probably the highest-rated player left on the board but the Pats drafted two receivers last season, so they may not want to go back to that well.  Instead we'll give them the talented Beaver to slot alongside last year's first-round selection, Miguel Peterson.  Both starters Gregory Charpentier and William May are getting up there in age and may not last the season - my headcanon already has Charpentier as a Commander by the trade deadline.  Even if they both do stay in Foxborough, Gresham well-rounded game will let him spell either one and gain valuable experience.

18-BUF: OG Felix Rodriguez, Temple
Under different circumstances, Buffalo might have taken the value pick in Njoku.  But with their second-round pick sent to Miami in the Brian Adams trade, they need to address some needs even if it might be considered a slight reach (again, no trades here).  Thus, Rodriguez makes the seven hour trek from Philly to Buffalo.  While Rodriguez doesn't stand out in any one physical area, his high football IQ should let him start at left guard immediately, helping protect Yusei Asencio's blind side a bit more.

19-TB: CB Stansly Alvarez, LSU
I'm not sure if the Bucs have an active owner.  But for the roster they have right now (with only 3 CBs), this pick makes a ton of sense.  Alvarez combines smarts (32 Wonderlic), speed (4.41 40), and excellent drill scores (8.48 Man Cover score) to make a great selection in the mid-late first. 

20-PHI: DT Dante Gates, Kansas
Philly has shown in the past that they aren't afraid to get their man, even if the draft projections have the pick rated much lower - see last year's selection of Christian Palardy.  So they wouldn't be afraid to do so again and take the heir apparent to Michael Cuevas.  Gates is a prototypical two-gapper that lived in the backfield in 2023; see the 20 TFLs and 6.0 sacks despite commanding double-teams consistently.  With Cuevas the only DT on the roster and only signed for this year, the Eagles have to be planning ahead at the 0-tech.

21-CHI: FS Kyle Reimold, Central Michigan
Jerzy Redding is out of contract after this season.  The Bears have an opportunity to replace him with the top FS in the draft.  Reimold gained his reputation as a thumper honestly, aided by an explosive first step.  But he is no slouch in pass defense, testing well in both man and zone concepts.  Chicago would do well to have Reimold serve a year as backup before handling center field on his own.

22-SF: DE Ty Bogdanovich, Indiana
San Francisco only had 21 sacks last season, tied for 22nd in the league.  There's plenty of room for improvement along the defensive line, and the sack merchant will certainly pamp up those numbers.  Bogdanovich's calling card is a deadly first step that often panics tackles into guessing and leaning - often the wrong way.  His speed/acceleration/agility numbers back that up, as Ty tested 2nd/1st/1st in his position.

23-NYG: WR Logan Njoku, Kentucky
The G-Men happily stop Njoku's slide and take the diminutive WR here.  Long-known as a route technician, Njoku turned heads at the Combine when he ran a sub-4.4 40.  New York could easily play him all over the formation.  He has the speed and leaping ability to win contested balls on the outside, and the agility to shake a defender for that critical split-second.

24-ATL: OG Corey Cabrera, San Jose State
The Falcons are another team in desperate need of beef on the line with only one guard (Joseph Saric) on the roster.  While they've been looking to FA to find some answers, they could still use Cabrera to either supplement or supplant Saric.  At the Combine, Cabrera met or improved from almost all of his Pro Day rankings (except for his 40), perhaps suggesting a manic drive to improve.

25-DAL: OT Tony Varvaro, Northern Illinois
This was a hard pick to mock.  I didn't feel the team's needs met the perceived draft value, but pure BPA would be CB Jonathan Parks.  Dallas has taken cornerbacks early in each of the last two drafts; I don't really think they'd go there again.  So we'll pick the standout Huskie instead.  Varvaro fits in well with the Cowboys' tackle room as a run blocking specialist.  He isn't a liability in the passing game, although has room to improve.  Varvaro would compete with 2022 4th-round pick Jon Pinto for the swing tackle position, then again with Pinto for a starting position if Neil Hankins doesn't re-sign.

26-MIA: QB Blake Smith, North Texas
With three picks in the second round, Miami is well-equipped to fill in many of their holes in the trenches.  So why not get your QBOTF in the Mean Green signal caller?  Dean Hammonds has a 21.6M cap hit this year and will probably ask for similar numbers during extension talks this season.  If Miami re-signs Hammonds, he can be a bridge to Smith.  If Miami doesn't Smith is talented enough to start, (the Combine's second-best combined QB drill scores) and on a rookie contract.
Plus he'd have McGee to hand the ball to a lot, that will take a lot of pressure off of him.

27-KC: WR Trevor Wood, USC
Last year the Chiefs took Heisman winner Theo Scribner in the first.  This year they'll need to pick up some weapons for him, and who better than someone experienced in catching a metric crapton of passes?  KC would be hoping that Scribner can form the same kind of connection Julian Longacre did with Trevor Wood - a fair bet in my opinion.

28-ARI: CB Jonathan Parks, Ohio
What seems to be an inactive team catches a break, as the Draft Guide's 14th-ranked player falls to the Cards.  A scheme-independent player, Parks seems like he would play as Arizona's nickelback alongside Adam Germen and William Morin.  They would be playing a LOT too, as the only three CBs on the roster.

29-PIT: ILB Carlos Blacknall, North Carolina
Utah State's Joe Yanda may be higher-rated, but it sure seems like the Steelers strongly prefer inside linebackers that can stop a ball carrier in their tracks.  Blacknall certainly fits that bill, as he proved by racking up over 20 TFLs in each of the last two seasons. Pittsburgh looks like they have a crowded ILB room, but half of them are headed for the practice squad, and all but two of the ILBs are out of contract after this season.  Blacknall should easily find immediate playing time.

30-JAX: WR Sean Plutko, Texas State
Whether it's Steven Connolly or Matt Howard under center, the Jags badly need weapons for their QB to throw to.  Plutko is a big, physical receiver who can regularly outmuscle his defender for the ball and could command more attention from the defense, freeing up space for Ray-Ray Thompson to operate.

31-JAX: DT Phillip Bell, BGSU
Even after choosing Sam Voth earlier, Jacksonville's defense still needs love.  Bowling Green's mountain of a DT (6'4", 302) could be just what the doctor ordered.  He would immediately be the Jaguars' most talented defensive lineman and probably wins a starting job right away, although a part of that is an indictment on their current DT group.

32-CAR: OLB Rasheed Downs, Notre Dame
A series of fortunate events lets the Panthers take their pick of the OLB class.  The experts and scouting services are split on how to rank Downs and Alabama's Beau Martin, although they are the consensus #1 and #2.  But Downs' superior coverage ability is the difference here, as he's a better fit for Carolina's defense.  Downs' Combine did nothing to hurt his stock; he placed top-10 for his position in every physical measurement.  As long as the speed of the pro game doesn't overwhelm him, Downs will be a great addition to the Panthers' front seven.

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Let me know how badly this sucked below!