[2024] Offseason Analysis: 20 Breakout Players to Watch in 2024

[Piercewise1]

So far this off-season I’ve ranked every team by overall talent and reviewed some amazing position groups. Today I’m going even more granular and highlighting individual players you’ll want to watch in 2024.

Criteria

All the below players are redshirt juniors who advanced from B+ to A overall with their latest progressions. I’ve kept it mostly to user coaches but have included a few AI programs for less-represented positions.

Statistics were not one of my selection criteria; I looked those up later to fill out the player summaries.

Why redshirt juniors?

Players get the +/- distinction to their attributes in their 3^rd (age 20) season. So 4^th year (age 21) is the first time we can definitively say how many ‘grade increments’ a player improved. Otherwise, you’re just choosing from thousands of C-> B progressions.

So why not seniors too?

Seniors will automatically graduate out of the CFB sim at the end of the year. Redshirt juniors might return (and be absolute stars in their senior year), but they could also declare early for the draft. My numbers suggest this wouldn’t be to their long-term benefit, but there is a small chance it happens. So this list also functions as an early preview for draft decisions to pay attention to at the end of the season.

Enough explaining, let’s get to the players!

 

Pocket QB Kelly Jarwin
Florida State @Kirby

Throw Power: A >> A+
Throw Accuracy: A- >> A
Strength: C >> B-

2023 Stats: 309-473 // 3,531 // 27-7

Jarwin led the Seminoles to a 9-3 record and an appearance in the ACC Championship Game last year. With a bevy of returning weapons like RB John Johnson and WRs Brandon Anderson and Brad Pogue, expectations are sky-high for both him and the team in 2024.

 

Balanced QB Kyle Darvish
New Mexico @DarthJarJar

Throw Power: B+ >> A
Throw Accuracy: B >> A-
Football IQ: C+ >> B

2023 Stats: 254-432 // 3,043 // 12-11

Less heralded but still worthy of note is the play of Darvish, who returns with his best runner (Ken Flagel) and best receiver (Dean Leary). While he needs to work on his turnovers, Darvish should demand the attention of any defensive coordinators the Lobos match up against.

 

Speed RB Phillippe Johnson
Texas @joopear

Speed: A >> A+
Carrying: C+ >> B
Strength: B >> A-

2023 Stats: 98-501-4

With Rod Carter graduating, Johnson moves into the RB1 spot. Can he maintain his >5.0 ypc average moving from change-of-pace to every-down back?

 

Balanced RB Glover Evans
Texas Tech @rcarlson77

Speed: B- >> B
Carrying: B+ >> A
Catching: B >> A-

2023 Stats: 147-747-7

Glover split carries with scrambling QB Xavier Means (128-999-7) and speedy William Neal (70-339-3), but both have moved on. Ethan Garcia is the new scrambling QB1, but expect Evans to continue as the primary ball carrier moving forward.

 

Speed WR Nick Conner
Houston @mahrowkeen

Speed: A- >> A
Catching: C >> C+
Route Running: B- >> B

2023 Stats: 36-440-4

Conner ended the 2023 season fifth on the team in catches, but he was the only non-senior in that group. The opportunity is there for a huge season as the primary target for senior QB Trevon Cothran, but now he’ll have to battle his opponent’s best CBs to get there.

Run Blocking OT Jo-Jo Faulkner
Navy @SyndaKyt

Strength: B >> A
Run Blocking: A- >> A
Pass Blocking: C- >> C-

2023 Stats: 4-3

Navy was a top-15 rushing team last year thanks to the efforts of their big men up front. Faulkner looks to build on that success in 2024 after a promising off-season.

Pass Blocking OT Curtis Tracy
Stanford @Ricky Campbell

Strength: B >> A
Run Blocking: C >> C+
Pass Blocking: B+ >> A

2023 Stats: 2-5

Tracy took on the best pass rushers in the PAC-12 last year, and his stats suffered for it. But with solid A’s in strength and pass blocking, he looks to be a lock for another year as the starting LT.

Pass Blocking OG Josh Morales
San Diego State @Pumph

Strength: B >> A-
Run Blocking: C >> C+
Pass Blocking: B >> A

2023 Stats: 1-2

Morales’ stats aren’t eye-catching, but he helped keep Randy Romero clean; the Pocket QB was sacked on only 3% of his drop-backs in 2023.

 

Run Blocking OG Taylor Mortensen
Utah @SageBow

Strength: B- >> A-
Run Blocking: A- >> A+
Pass Blocking: C- >> C

2023 Stats: 9-0

Mortensen paved the way for a run-heavy offense, tying for the team lead with 9 pancakes alongside fellow interior lineman Kyle Heisey. Those numbers should grab a lot of attention if he can match (or exceed!) them this season.

 

Run Blocking C Jerry Reyes
Marshall @DramaticBacon

Strength: B- >> B+
Run Blocking: A >> A+
Pass Blocking: C >> C+

2023 Stats: 12-0

Marshall’s top four linemen produced an astonishing 73 pancakes last season and didn’t give up a single sack. The fact that Reyes was third on the team with 12 says a lot about their caliber of play at that position.

  

Balanced DE Pat Walker
USC @Dhawk18

Speed: B- >> B+
Pass Rush: B >> A-
Run Defense: C+ >> B

2023 Stats: 35-10-6.5

Walker’s 6.5 sacks led the team, and his 10 TFL are impressive when you consider he only made 35 tackles total. He’ll be a big focus as the only returning starter on that defensive line.

 

Speed Rusher DE Yhonathan Madison
Air Force @Jgreene816

Speed: B >> A-
Pass Rush: A >> A+
Run Defense: C+ >> B

2023 Stats: 48-7-3

Madison was one member of a five-man DL committee that all recorded between 3 and 5 sacks each. Three of them return this year and should be major force together, especially after the way Madison progressed.

 

Balanced DT Daniel Sanchez
East Carolina @ObliviousLAX

Strength: C >> B-
Pass Rush: C+ >> B
Run Defense: B >> B+

2023 Stats: 46-4-1

Sanchez played alongside three seniors who all recorded double-digit TFL numbers, and he still managed 46 tackles. Now he’s the experienced leader who will be tasked with elevating the play of B-level talent around him.

 

Balanced DT Cory Smith
Toledo

Strength: C >> B
Pass Rush: C+ >> B
Run Defense: B+ >> A

2023 Stats: 55-16-1

Smith was already 4^th on his team in tackles and 3^rd in TFL last season; with progression getting him up to full A in Run Defense, expect those numbers to improve even more.

 

Run Stopper ILB Andre Brignac
Wisconsin @kwheele

Speed: B- >> B+
Tackle: B+ >> A
Pass Rush: B+ >> A
Run Defense: B+ >> A

2023 Stats: 31-4-0

Brignac was a rotational member of the Badger’s front 7, and now can step into the starting role with the graduation of Thomas Hamilton. He’ll get a lot more snaps this season, and his stats should reflect that.

 

Field General ILB Richardo Kershaw
Washington

Football IQ: A- >> A
Tackle: C+ >> B
Pass Rush: A- >> A+
Run Defense: B- >> B+

2023 Stats: 68-8-0

Kershaw led the team in tackles last year, and there’s every indication he can do it again with the way his attributes have improved.

 

Man Coverage CB Felix Bonifacio
Baylor @Vivid

Speed: B- >> B+
Agility: C+ >> B+
Man Coverage: B >> B+

2023 Stats: 16-0-0

Presumably Bonifacio moves from nickelback to CB1 this season, which should provide plenty of opportunities to pad these stats. Especially against teams desperate to keep pace with that Baylor offense.

Ball Hawk CB Billy Wright
Kansas State @Swipet

Speed: B >> A
Agility: B+ >> A
Man Coverage: C >> B

2023 Stats: 33-3-5

Wright and fellow hawk Simeyon McCoy combined for 13 interceptions last season, but only Wright is returning. With these attribute growths, he shouldn’t be worried.

 

Ball Hawk FS Akeem Bailey
Purdue @BabaYaga

Speed: B >> A-
Agility: B+ >> A
Man Coverage: B >> A-

2023 Stats: 54-0-2

Bailey has the speed and awareness to be an effective midfielder, but was also 3^rd on the team in tackles and recorded as many TFL as turnovers (3). He’s a Swiss army knife that pro scouts should be watching carefully.

 

Zone Coverage FS Mike Knox
Maryland @RobSun08

Speed: B >> A-
Agility: B >> A-
Zone Coverage: A >> A+

2023 Stats: 13-0-0

Knox was a backup last year but gets the chance to start after the graduation of John Grimm. I wouldn’t be surprised to see those numbers skyrocket after a full season of snaps.

 

Who on your team is poised to have a breakout year? Let me know in the comments!

[SageBow]

Great write up! Morty might legitimately be my best player and he’s still only a Jr, will be a beast next year if he doesn’t declare!