2023 Carolina Panthers Season In Review & Offseason Preview

[Jambo]

 

Three games scoring 33, 45, and 36 points without a single other game where the team scored 20 points the entire season. Teetering on the brink of winning the division while still contending for a top-10 pick while ending up with a top-5 pick. Getting the #1 overall pick due to another team's misfortune. It was a season of curiosities for the Panthers, the first after an offseason being built up by a new GM. While the team was inarguably more talented in 2023 than in 2022, the team went from winning 4 games in 2022... to 3 games in 2023. They went from picking #5 in the 2023 draft... to #5 in the 2024 draft. While the potential is there, the team still has a ways to go.

Record: 3-14

Offensive Rankings

13.5 points per game (23rd)

327.2 yards per game (20th)

284.3 passing yards per game (6th)

42.9 rushing yards per game (32nd)

Defensive Rankings

24.4 points per game (24th)

422.5 yards per game (31st)

223.5 passing yards per game (7th)

199.0 rushing yards per game (32nd)

 

Unit Breakdowns

Quarterback

QB Dekoda Link (66, Year 2): 477/905 (52.7% completion percentage) for 5,310 yards, 20 TD, 22 INT, 38 sacks, 67.69 passer rating

QB Myron Everett (66, Year 4): 8/18 (44.4% completion percentage) for 99 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 0 sacks, 80.56 passer rating

QB Jurickson Elflein (55, Year 2): no stats

 

Carolina switched to an air raid system for the majority of 2022 which led to Dekoda Link passing the ball much more than he did as a rookie. With an improved cache of weapons Link showed some nice ability despite every opponent knowing that the Panthers would be more reliant on the passing game. Still, the team will want him to improve his efficiency and throw for more touchdowns than interceptions in his third season if he wants to stick around as a long-term franchise QB.

Offseason prediction:

Link is still under contract through at least the 2025 season. Everett is a free agent and it looks unlikely that the team will meet his demands at present moment. Look for the team to most likely sign a veteran QB as a backup option for next season.

 

Runningback

RB James Ibach (62, Year 5): 169 attempts for 431 yards (2.55 YPC), 4 TD, 3 fumbles, 26 long; 64 catches (99 targets), 554 yards (8.65 YPC), 3 TD, 3 fumbles, 51 long

RB Erik Smith (55, Rookie): 67 attempts for 315 yards (4.71 YPC), 4 TD, 0 fumbles, 52 long; 34 catches (50 targets), 302 yards (8.88 YPC), 1 TD, 0 fumbles, 43 long

 

It was a tale of two new runningbacks for Carolina, as Ibach got the bulk of the starts with rookie Erik Smith playing as the change-of-pace back. Smith, the 96th pick in the 3rd round of the 2023 draft, was inarguably more efficient but also had his struggles at times. Ibach, signed to a 2-year, $1.8 million contract in the 2023 offseason, had a rough season and is a potential cut candidate depending on what Carolina does at the position this offseason.

Offseason prediction:

Ibach will remain on roster but will probably not get as much work in 2024. Carolina will likely give Smith more of an opportunity in his second season, with competition coming from either another free agent signing or another draft pick, but would not expect a huge investment at the position either way.

 

Wide Receiver

WR Russell Barnes (75, Year 4):  114 catches (205 targets), 1,253 yards (10.99 YPC), 8 TD, 0 fumbles, 53 long

WR Jose Maldonado (64, Year 5): 110 catches (201 targets), 1,583 yards (14.39 YPC), 5 TD, 4 fumbles, 60 long

WR Jose Melero (63, Year 3): 42 catches (74 targets), 438 yards (10.43 YPC), 0 TD, 1 fumble, 24 long

WR Marco Thompson (58, Rookie): 14 catches (26 targets), 131 yards (9.36 YPC), 1 TD, 0 fumbles, 29 long

 

The wide receiver position was another one to receive a big makeover in the 2023 offseason, as all of these players except Melero were new faces in 2024. Barnes, acquired from Chicago for a 4th round pick in 2023 and 6th round pick in 2025, missed a few games but was otherwise a steady #1 option for Link, playing well but not spectacularly. Maldonado was a surprisingly impactful addition, putting up 1,583 yards as primarily the second stringer, using his speed to get huge chunk plays for the Carolina offense that the team wasn't able to find anywhere else. Melero was a disappointment as the WR3, not catching a single touchdown on 74 targets and failing to do much with his targets. The fourth first rounder in Carolina's 2023 class, Thompson, did not see the field very much but played alright when he did see the field.

Offseason Prediction:

Barnes is back for at least another season. Pleased with Maldonado's performance, the team signed him to a 2-year, $6.3 million extension, and he will be back for at least another couple of seasons. Melero, meanwhile, was not offered an extension and is likely to hit free agency. Thompson will likely take over his snaps in 2024. The team could potentially draft another weapon for link high in the 2024 draft, but otherwise it would be most expected to see Barnes-Maldonado-Thompson as the primary WR trio in 2024, with depth added via free agency and/or late round picks.

 

Tight End

TE Don Scott (63, Rookie): 94 catches (176 targets), 987 yards (10.5 YPC), 2 TD, 1 fumble, 41 long

TE Michael Rausch (61, Year 5): 2 catches (5 targets), 8 yards (4 YPC), 1 TD, 0 fumbles, 6 long

 

Raush, signed to a 3-year, $2.16 million deal in the 2023 offseason, was the expected new starter at tight end until the team spent the #2 overall pick in the 2023 draft on phenom prospect, Don Scott out of Temple. He was expected to come in and be probably the primary weapon for Dekoda Link behind only Russell Barnes. Instead, he showcased some rookie struggles as the Link-Scott duo often did not connect in the early parts of the season, with an under-50% completion percentage on targets to Scott through the first half of the season. The tandem performed better in the second half, but just 2 TD and under 1,000 yards in a pass-heavy offense was a bit of a disappointment from the #2 overall pick. Still, it's not like he performed poorly, and an upward trajectory can only be expected from here.

Offseason Prediction:

With Scott under contract for at least another three seasons and Rausch for two, don't expect to see much movement here. Maybe the team brings in a blocking tight end in free agency or the draft to be TE3 for goal line sets.

 

Offensive Line

LT Paul Caruso (86, Year 5): 4 pancakes, 8 sacks allowed

LG David Smith (62, Year 4): 0 pancakes, 7 sacks allowed

C Kenneth Eggleston (68, Year 3): 1 pancake, 0 sacks allowed

RG Patrick Whitaker (65, Year 3): 0 pancakes, 8 sacks allowed

RT Peter Smith (77, Year 5): 1 pancake, 8 sacks allowed

 

The tackle position received a bit of a makeover in the 2023 offseason, with the jewel of the class, Paul Caruso, signing to a 4 year, $81 million, fully guaranteed contract. Peter Smith also received a juicy 2 year, $29.3 million fully guaranteed contract from Carolina. The result was an improved sack rate for Dekoda Link relative to the number of pass attempts as opposing edge rushers did not get to Link nearly as frequently as in 2022. Still, the number of sacks given up was too high and more improvement would be nice; thankfully, all players are young and should see positive progression this offseason.

Offseason Prediction:

All of these players except David Smith remain under contract and should be back with the team. David Smith and the team are currently far apart on extension talks and he is unlikely to be back with the team. OT Michael Williams is the current favorite to take over his slot should he accept his outstanding extension offer. The team could definitely look to improve this unit in the draft or free agency, but with a lot of resources currently invested last offseason it may be put a bit on the backburner going into 2024.

 

Defensive Line

DE Harold Campbell (71, Year 12): 55 tackles, 6.5 TFL, 5.0 sacks

DE Eric Stephens (63, Year 5): 66 tackles, 11.5 TFL, 7.0 sacks, 2 FR, 2 INT

DT Steven Kapfhammer (74, Year 5): 101 tackles, 41 TFL, 0 sacks, 4 FF

DT Caleb "Californiaeb" Suarez (65, Rookie): 57 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 1 FR

 

This defensive line also received a complete makeover in the offseason as all of these players were new faces in Carolina in 2023. Campbell was signed to a 1 year, $11.3 million contract as a stopgap and played his role to that effect. Stephens, signed to a 2 year, $5.56 million contract, was also considered a bit of a stopgap but actually outplayed the veteran Campbell with a team-high 7 sacks. Kapfhammer was signed to a 3-year, $33.9 million fully guaranteed deal and did not disappoint in his first year as a Panther. His 41 TFL was 3rd in the NFL, and though he didn't accumulate any sacks he was a force as a runstopper in the middle of the defensive line, even if the team statistics did not reflect a good run stopping team. Suarez, the #5 overall pick, played admirably for a DT2 and could jump up into the 70s as a second year player. He should continue to develop into a force and brutal combination with Kapfhammer over the next couple of season.

Offseason Prediction:

At defensive tackle, the team is unlikely to do much besides add depth with Kapfhammer and Suarez up the middle. At defensive end, Stephens is the only roster lock for 2024. Look for the team to do yet another offseason make over at the position, likely adding players both in free agency and at some point during the draft.

 

Linebackers

OLB (ILB) Michael Naccarato (62, Year 5): 141 tackles, 6.5 TFL, 2 FF

OLB Ramon Wells (61, Year 4): 81 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 INT

OLB Robert Morales (62, Year 4): 32 tackles, 2 TFL

 

Naccarato was the only new face in this unit in 2023, signed to a 3 year, $2.25 million deal, and just as he put up a ton of tackles with Minnesota in 2022, so too did he put up a ton of tackles with Carolina in 2023. 141 tackles led the entire NFL by 11. That might not necessarily be great news for the Panthers stop unit, as Wells generated some turnovers and Morales didn't play too many snaps but the team struggled significantly defending the run. As a result, Wells and Morales both look set to hit free agency as well.

Offseason Prediction:

Naccarato likely remains on the team, but no other linebacker is signed for 2024. Just like defensive end, expect a complete draft-and-free agency makeover with the team likely to try to bring in a traditional inside linebacker so Naccarato can slide outside.

 

Secondary

CB Michael Rebecca (64, Year 5): 49 tackles, 1 FR, 1 PD, 5 INT

CB Adrian Goerner (63, Year 3): 60 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 FF, 6 PD, 1 INT

CB Mark Hodson (59, Year 3): 38 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 FF, 1 PD, 1 INT

CB Gary Andress (59, Year 6): 26 tackles, 1 INT

FS Zack Trawick (60, Rookie): 89 tackles, 3 TFL, 2 FF, 2 INT

FS Jon White (61, Year 5): 4 tackles, 3 INT

SS Pablo Jovel (64, Year 5): 74 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 1 FR, 4 INT

 

The secondary - this may shock you - was another position group that received a mostly new starting unit in 2023. Well, at least at the safety position. All of the corners here are actually holdovers. The passing unit was 7th in yards allowed per game, and while some of that may have to do with teams electing to run the ball to chew clock in some games, the stop unit did perform relatively effectively overall with the new faces at safety all contributing much better than their 2022 counterparts. 17 combined INTs is both significantly more than 2022 and middle of the road for the NFL. Trawick performed admirably for a rookie, coming 3rd on the team in tackles and causing 4 turnovers. Jon White, signed in the offseason, also performed admirably off the bench with 3 interceptions. Jovel signed a 2 year, $5.4 million deal and played impressively for a run stopping safety with a 4 interception tally.

Offseason Prediction:

Rebecca and Goerner are both set to come back in 2024 but the team will likely look to add a couple of new faces at corner. The 69th (nice) overall pick in 2023, Franchy Washington, did not see much playing time in 2023 but could start to fight for some snaps in 2024 as well. All the listed safeties are back in 2024 and it seems unlikely the team will end up doing much new at the position unless a significant upgrade offers itself up in the draft or free agency.

 

Special Teams

K Javier Rivera (59, Year 7): 3/3 XP, 1/2 FG (50%), 33 long

K Michael Rogers (60, Year 3): 21/22 XP, 22/37 FG (59.5%), 43 long

P Hung Min (61, Year 5): 165 punts, 59 inside 20

 

A couple of new faces at the special teams positions. Rivera lasted 2 games as the kicker for Carolina before being mercilessly cut in favor of the younger Michael Rogers. Both are accuracy kickers but Rogers had the slightly larger leg. Still, a 60% field goal conversion is towards the bottom of the league and Rogers's leg isn't necessarily powerful enough to accept a rate that low. Min's inside 20 rate was also below league average though that could have to do with the Carolina offense stalling more often in its own territory due to its pass-heavy nature.

Offseason Prediction:

Rogers is not safe with a fully non-guaranteed contract. Min has $1 million left in 2024 with 50% guaranteed so he is slightly more safe. Still, it seems unlikely the team will prioritize these positions much while still rebuilding so both are favorites to keep their jobs heading into 2024.

 

Draft Preview

1st round (1st overall) - from Indianapolis

1st round (5th overall)

1st round (TBD) - from Denver

2nd round, 3rd round, 4th round, 6th round, 7th round selection all held by Carolina

 

As discussed, the team is most likely to address some combination of the following in the draft: Backup QB; RB; High end or depth WR; OT; DE; ILB; OLB; CB. Knowing the team has two top 5 picks, the likeliest targets would include WR Paul Canha, RB Clayton McGee, ILB Kenny Daniel, DE Whit Wilson, CB Rashard Hilliard, RB Richard Bianchi, WR Logan Njoku, CB Sam Voth, OT J'Mon Walters, and CB Jonathan Parks. From a strategic standpoint, it likely makes the most sense to move at least one of the two top 5 picks, especially if someone wants to come up to #1 for a QB and pay a hefty price for the right to do so. QB Hiram Maronde is reportedly the apple of some teams' eyes so it may be most prudent for Carolina to slide out of the #1 pick, even if they would prefer to grab their pick of the litter.

 

2024 Preview

This team's starters outside of one are all young and still have room to improve this offseason. Carolina's talent level should grow again going into 2024, and although that didn't help Carolina's win total in 2023 despite the same thing being true, with the NFC South still being quite a vulnerable position, with the right moves Carolina should be back in the thick of contention for the division once again in 2024. If the team can have a more efficient passing attack with a 70s Dekoda Link, the team should only continue to get better. Early Prediction: 7-10

[Sarge]

GM Jambo, you have the numbers in the wrong order for your Early Prediction. I think you meant 17-0.

[Rocketcan]

I always enjoy updates on the big dumb idiots in Carolina!