Wahoo's Comprehensive Preseason CBB Preview: Part 1

[Wahoo]

Welcome to Wahoo’s comprehensive CBB season preview. We will be going over my preseason Top 25, national awards predictions, top 10 games to watch, conference rankings, all-conference teams, and projected postseason seeds. 

 

Some disclaimers to start: my team rankings and award predictions are based on the proprietary Wahoo Ability Ranking model (WAR™). Through a top-secret formula, I assign each player a rating. My formula has different weightings based on what I view as more or less important. These weightings are different from Tuscan’s weightings, and likely different from what you would choose. My weightings do tilt towards offensive ability over other factors, so you will often see teams with a few great shooters outrank teams with great defense or many average shooters. Players are also not ranked based only on their Overall rating; there are many situations where a C overall is rated higher than a B overall based on their individual attributes. The top 8 players on a team contribute to a team’s ranking, with a heavier weighting on the starting 5. I do not account for positions; I assume that most teams will find a gameplan that will work to get their best players on the court. However, a team’s ranking could theoretically be made up of 5 centers, which would obviously not be a valid lineup. AI teams may also not value their players the same way I do and default to different gameplans and lineups. However, I do believe my system gives a general sense of the talent that would be playing for each team. And if you disagree, then make your own formula!

 

Let’s get into it, starting with the preseason top 25, conference strength, national awards.

Preseason Top 25

Preseason Top 25

1	Villanova	Big East
2	Army	Patriot
3	San Francisco	West Coast
4	Colorado State	Mountain West
5	Wisconsin	Big 10
6	Kansas	Big 12
7	Purdue	Big 10
8	South Alabama	Sun Belt
9	UC Irvine	Big West
10	Utah	PAC 12
11	Eastern Michigan	MAC
12	Davidson	Atlantic 10
13	Iowa State	Big 12
14	Fresno State	Mountain West
15	UMBC	America East
16	Southern Miss	Sun Belt
17	BYU	Big 12
18	Buffalo	MAC
19	Baylor	Big 12
20	Western Michigan	MAC
21	Missouri	SEC
22	Pittsburgh	ACC
23	Wyoming	Mountain West
24	Seton Hall	Big East
25	Navy	Patriot

 

There is a great diversity of conferences amongst the preseason Top 25 with 14 different conferences having at least one team ranked. The Big 12 leads the way with 4 teams ranked, followed by the MAC and Mountain West with 3. The Big 10 is the only conference to put 2 teams into the Top 10. The Big East, Patriot League, and Sun Belt also have multiple ranked teams. 

 

Villanova and Army lead the way in the top 2 positions, being some of the few schools with 3 A-rated players on their roster. Villanova gets the nod with a bevy of support behind their top 3 players, while Army’s roster is noticeably thinner in depth. No team is more top loaded than San Francisco, though. A nation-leading 4 A-rated players don the Dons jersey, but there is little else on the roster that shows promise. How much of a drop off will we see in SF’s play when their stars aren’t on the court? Colorado State could have the best 1-2 punch in the country with Jr. C Andree Mann, a projected first-team All-American, and (Sr.) SF Jules Stillwell, a projected second-team All-American. Army is the only other squad with 2 players on the projected All-American teams, placing Jr. PF Jack Beckmann on the first-team and Sr. PG Reginald Gray on the third-team. Wisconsin rounds out the preseason Top 5 with 2 A overalls backed up by plenty of support.

Conference Strength

The Big 12 may have more preseason ranked teams, but the ACC looks to be the most competitive conference overall. Only Pittsburgh cracked the Top 25 at #22, but 9 other teams rank inside the Top 65. With Virginia ranked at 75, the ACC could feasibly have 11 teams competing for tournament bids. However, my pick for best conference in the nation would go to the MAC. Eastern Michigan, Buffalo, and Western Michigan all rank in the Top 25, Bowling Green just missed the cut at #26, and a total of 7 teams are in the Top 60. This conference features 2 projected All-Americans and Toledo, a team with 3 A overalls that projects at 6th (!) in the conference. The MAC conference champion will have certainly earned their title at the end of the season.

 

Conference	Highest Ranked	Lowest Ranked	Average
ACC	22	152	70.9
MAC	11	168	71.8
Sun Belt	8	157	77.7
Mountain West	4	172	82.2
Big Ten	5	170	82.5
Pac-12	10	163	85.4
WCC	3	164	86.8
Big East	1	159	90.8
SEC	21	171	93.4
American	28	161	95.8
Big 12	6	154	102.9
A10	12	173	105.5
C-USA	36	321	145.5
AEC	15	342	213.9
Summit League	84	345	215.7
Patriot	2	347	216.4
WAC	42	311	221.7
ASUN	44	353	240.5
Big West	9	330	247.1
Big South	187	335	254.3
NEC	181	352	255.4
MVC	136	359	259.4
Big Sky	189	343	266.3
SoCon	177	354	271.8
SWAC	183	360	272.2
Colonial Athletic	192	362	273.9
OVC	176	357	276.5
Horizon League	180	349	280.0
Ivy League	206	338	281.3
Southland	175	363	281.4
MEAC	194	358	283.6
Independent	185	364	286.0
MAAC	193	361	287.2

 

National Awards

 

First Team All-Americans

PF Christopher Merlo	Jr	Nebraska
C Henry Gonzales	Sr	UC Irvine
PF Jack Beckmann	Jr	Army
SF Jonathan Hughes	Sr	Colorado
C Andre Mann	Jr	Colorado State

 

Second Team All-Americans

PF Felipe Raymond	Sr	UTEP
C Christopher Netninn	Jr	Bowling Green
C Jose Guadian	Sr	Syracuse
SF Jules Stillwell	(Sr)	Colorado State
PG William Smith	Sr	St. John’s

 

Third Team All-Americans

C Robert Lampe	Jr	UMBC
SF Glenn Everett	Jr	Central Michigan
PG Reginald Gray	Sr	Army
SF Craig Bennett	Jr	Iowa State
PF Aziz Chea	Sr	South Carolina

 

Wooden Award Winner

PF Christopher Merlo

Jr

Nebraska

 

All-Freshman Team

SF Matthew Cooper	Fr	Tulane
PF Giovanni Giorgio	Fr	South Alabama
C Shankar Chen	Fr	West Virginia
PF Jesse Strickland	Fr	Georgetown
SF Andy Le	Fr	Seattle

 

We have talked a lot about the collections of star power at the top teams in the country, but the best player in the nation may reside on a team that will be right on the bubble. Jr. PF Christopher Merlo will look to carry a Nebraska team dangerously thin on depth to the promised land. The only knocks on Merlo’s game is his tendency to be a little loose with the ball, but he makes up for it by excelling in all other categories of the game. While Merlo is our pick for best overall player, Colorado State’s (Sr.) SF Jules Stillwell is the best pure scorer. Stillwell can knock down a shot from anywhere on the court and has the skills to dribble to the rim if the defense isn’t ready. He takes some time off on defense but is still able to stay with the best players. With Jr. C Andre Mann also garnering a lot of the defense’s attention, Stillwell should have plenty of opportunities to rack up his box score stats.

 

Top 10 Games to Watch

10. Army at Navy - Week 13

9. Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan - Week 10

8. Wisconsin at Baylor - Week 2

7. UMBC at San Francisco - Week 12

6. South Alabama at Davidson - Week 5

5. Colorado State at Fresno State - Week 13

4. Utah at Kansas - Week 3

3. Wisconsin at UC Irvine - Week 1

2. Wisconsin at Purdue - Week 13

1. Villanova at Kansas - Week 5

 

[kwheele]

3 of the Top 10 games to watch ... NICE!!!

[Rocketcan]

Ranked? Please don't put that pressure on me.