[2023] Reviewing the Previews: Grading My Preseason Predictions

[Piercewise1]

The conclusion of week 9 brings us to the halfway point of the season, so it’s time to look back on my Division Preview series and see where I went right (and horribly wrong) in my predictions. I’ve changed the order to put the conferences together.

AFC North

Best take: “We could have some exciting offensive performances from the [Bengals].” They’re tied for 5^th in points per game, averaging just under 31, and the team is 6-3.

Worst take: “Cleveland looks like a strong contender for a playoff push and maybe even a division title.” Not remotely; the Browns are 3-6, good enough for last in the division and 12^th in the conference. The defense that kept them competitive last year is giving up 24.8 points per game.

Overall grade: D. Saying “don’t underestimate” the Steelers is a far cry from their 9-0 start, and I didn’t predict the Ravens having a winning record either. Other than the Cincinnati offense I pretty much missed on everything.

AFC East

Best take: “The playoff window might already be closing for the [Patriots].” They’re under .500 in a conference that could see a 10-win team miss the playoffs, and have several tough opponents still on the schedule (LAR, @LV, CIN, @PIT).

Worst take: The Dolphins might already be looking ahead to next year “if they don’t get the on-field results they expect.”  I predicted a 3-way divisional race and highlighted their additional 1^st round pick in 2024, but right now they’re 5-3 and in a tight race for the final wild card. 

Overall grade: B-. The Bills are good but not for the reasons I predicted (Ascencio is 12^th in yards but has a 9-13 TD-INT ratio), and having the Jets 4^th was a gimme because they were AI controlled for so long. Not terrible, but not great.

 

AFC South

Best take: “The Texans look like an early candidate for the #1 overall pick.” Houston is 0-8, and only one loss has been by fewer than 14 points. Only the 0-9 Colts have looked worse.   

Worst take: Even before the fire sale, the Jaguars didn’t perform like “one of the premier teams in the AFC”. They started the year 4-4, which was bad enough that ownership completely packed it in and started selling at the trade deadline to stockpile future picks.

Overall grade: B. I was very wrong about the Jaguars, but the other 3 were pretty close (though I undersold the Titans). Not a high degree of difficulty given how close they are to prior year, but I’m taking my wins where I can get them.

 

AFC West

Best take: Las Vegas “could see some shootouts” due to a great offense and suspect defense, but should still be pretty good. So far they’ve had wins of 27-24 (twice), 34-27, and 29-28 to go with a 41-24 loss.  

Worst take: Kansas City fans “might have to be patient if they’re rooting for a non-cellar finish.” The Chiefs are 5-3 with some quality wins, like being the only team to defeat the Titans thus far.

Overall grade: A-. I called most of the movement correctly – I was high on the Raiders, low on the Chargers, and thought the Chiefs were improving. Everything just happened much faster and in a more extreme fashion than I predicted.     

 

NFC North

Best take: The Lions would compete for a playoff spot. I was wrong about Hansen being much improved (he’s under 50% completions with a 6-13 TD-INT ratio), but the defense has dragged the team to a 4-4-1 record which puts them close to that coveted 7-seed.

Worst take: The Vikings “might [have] some growing pains” after trading away two of their best players. In fact they’re tied for the division lead at 5-4, and it’s actually their defense doing most of the heavy lifting.

Overall grade: C-. That might seem harsh, but: I really thought the Bears would be head and shoulders above the rest, Hansen hasn’t been leading the charge for the Lions, the Vikings are good sooner than I expected, and the Packers’ victories are against teams who are currently a combined 3-22. So pretty much all of my specific predictions were wrong.

 

NFC East

Best take: “The Scrambler buffs should do wonders for Philly’s offense”; even battling injuries, they’re averaging over 25 points per game. Granted, I wasn’t expecting their  defense to give up just as many.

Worst take: The Giants “have the talent to compete”. I said they wouldn’t be a playoff team, but I wasn’t expecting a 1-6-1 record and a -106 point differential.

Overall grade: C+. Washington’s a gimme, and I thought the Cowboys “should compete for a post-season spot” (currently #6). But I thought Philadelphia’s young defense would be better, and New York is a complete surprise.

 

NFC South

Best take: That the Saint’s 2^nd-place schedule would be too tough for them. They’re currently 2-6 including a loss against the Rams, and are averaging only 17 points per game.

Worst take: “I think the Falcons improve on their win total this year.” They are 2-7 after a 6-win season a year ago, and have five losses of 30+ points.

Overall grade: B. I wasn’t high on any team coming into the year (though I really thought the Falcons would be improved), and so far none have dissuaded me from that notion.

 

NFC West

Best take: “[Arizona’s] offense should be the envy of the league.” They are 3^rd in the NFL at 35.7 points per game…good enough for second in their division as well.  

Worst take: The Seahawks would get burned by their schedule. While they’ve come back to earth after a 3-0 start, they did beat fellow third-place finisher Minnesota in week 2.

Overall grade: B+. Nothing too difficult here with a mostly status-quo standing, but I predicted the Rams would have a chance to win the division (they are currently tied with the Cardinals at 8-1) and that the 49ers would have a top-3 pick (they traded their 2024 1^st, but would currently be 3^rd in the order).  

 

Conclusion: Making predictions is tough, even in simulated sports. What teams have surprised you the most this year?

 

[tsweezy]

Tennessee and PIT are for sure the surprisingly good teams. Never would have expected them to be leading the AFC right now