Kentucky - Tennessee Game Preview

[tsweezy]

This weekend we have one of the most-anticipated games of the year: #20 University of Kentucky hosts #1 University of Tennessee. A pivotal game in the race for the SEC East, a win for Tennessee would lock in their status as the front-runner in the division while a win with Kentucky would leave them in a tie for 1st place in the division with a shot at making the SEC CG. Let's dive in for some preview, comparisons, and predictions!

 

 

Pre-season Expectations:

The two programs had dramatically different 2022 seasons. Tennessee had ridden Freshman QB Brandon Savage and Heisman Finalist RB Aldrick Ynoa (and a vastly underrated defense) to an SEC East crown and a Playoff Semifinals appearance, finishing 3rd in the nation. Kentucky meanwhile finished just 5-7 missing a bowl game.

However, Tennessee was losing Ynoa and several of their best defenders, while Kentucky brought back a boatload of talent. Preseason talent rankings pegged Kentucky as the 3rd most talented squad with Tennessee at 13. Preseason polls had Tennessee at #3 in the nation followed very closely by Kentucky. It seemed clear that these were the two teams on a collision course for the East crown (we'll try not to talk about UGA in here). Expectations for the teams were that Tennessee was going to have a flamethrower QB in Brandon Savage and some all-star WRs who could drag an average defense to a 10-win season while Kentucky seemed to have a very capable defense and a 3-headed monster on offense between 5-star scrambling QB Michael Oliveros, 5-star all-world (on paper) RB Kelvin Dupree, and 5-star WR Logan Njoku. 

Season to date:

Tennessee has held up their end, coming into the matchup as the #1 team in the country for the last 6 weeks, with the #1 offense by PPG, the Heisman frontrunner in Brandon Savage, an offense that punts less than twice per game, and a surprisingly good defense that has given up fewer than 7 points per game (before backups get put in, 14.8 ppg allowed overall).

Kentucky meanwhile has been a bit up and down. They opened the year with a loss to a VERY good top-10 USC team, before winning big in a couple games against outmatched opponents. Their only other test was another top-10 team as they fell to East division foe UGA 31-49 and could not contain the run game, or the long strikes from Outman. Their offense is still one of the best in the nation, averaging almost 35 ppg, but their defense is very hot and cold. Statistically, Oliveros is the 3rd best QB in the SEC, slightly edging out Outman and sitting behind Moncrief and Savage. Dupree is averaging over 6.3 YPC and is still leaving meat on the bone. Even with the most difficult schedule in the conference, the Kentucky defense is a top-5 unit so overall they appear to be a team that is a true 15-20th best in the country and came up just shy in their 2 big games (both away games mind you). 

This week:

Both teams are pretty battle-tested. This is going to be the first big game that Kentucky hosts, to the relief of their coaches, and the fans will surely make this a serious HFA for the Wildcats. However Tennessee has already gone down to Tallahassee to play a top-5 team away so this is nothing new to them. With a Saturday evening kick, the weather looks to be clear, in the 50s, and slightly windy. In other words, perfect conditions. In addition, both teams have their body bag FCS game next week so they can leave it all out on the field knowing they have a week to recover afterwards. 

 

The Matchups:

Here we're going to do a little bit of a position-by-position breakdown of the 2 teams. See how the individual players stack up and who has the better looking roster. First off:

Quarterback

Kentucky has a phenomenal QB talent. Oliveros was one of 4 5-star quarterbacks in the recruiting class of 2020. He chose to attend Kentucky to try and follow in the footsteps of his hero, fellow scrambler Rashaan Lyons. After getting on campus, he took a redshirt year as he watched Lyons lead the Wildcats to a Playoff semifinal appearance before being drafted by Indianapolis. As a RS FR, Oliveros had a difficult year last season, completing only 53% of his passes, only 180 ypg and an 11:11 TD:INT ratio before being unceremoniously pulled for senior Casey Williams the last few games as Kentucky tried to salvage an ultimately 5-7 season. This year though he's taken new steps after hitting the film room hard over the offseason. His QBR has gone from 111 to 166, he's 13:1 TD:INT now, and he's adding an extra 50 YPG on the ground. As I mentioned earlier, he's potentially the 3rd best QB in the conference. While he's not on any awards list right now, he's had a phenomenal trajectory and has 2 more years to fully blossom before being a likely first round pick after the 2025 season. 

 

Unfortunately for him, he's always been, and likely always will be, overshadowed by the QB from one state south. Brandon Savage is probably the most famous player in SimFBA. As a prospect, he was the Elite 11 MVP, 5-star QB who opted to be a hometown hero and attend Tennessee. The only true freshman to have any real success so far in sim, he exploded onto the scene leading Tennessee to the East crown, 12 wins, and a playoff semifinal appearance. He led the SEC in QBR, had over 4000 yards, and a 3:1 TD:INT ratio. The only major knock on him was that he was very prone to taking sacks, but again, for an 18 year old he was absolutely phenomenal. This year he's taken another step, after 6 games he has nearly 3000 yards, a 69% completion, and 25:2 TD:INT (despite sitting for almost all the 4th quarters so far). He still takes a lot of sacks, but that's because the OL is kinda dogshit (more on that later). He and Auburn's Moncrief are probably 1a/1b in the Heisman race, and I can't really think of many ways he could be performing better.

Advantage - 2.5/5 Tennessee. I don't think this is particularly controversial. Oliveros has award-contending potential and is beginning to blossom, but Savage is THE measuring stick for young QBs at the moment.

Runningback
 

Well now it's Kentucky's turn to brag. At RB they have one of the 3 most talented backs in the sim. Kelvin Dupree is a senior 5-star stud from California. On paper he has: A+ speed, A+ agility, A+ strength, A+ carrying, A+ catching, A+ football IQ, B stamina, and B injury. Wow. He is almost guaranteed to be a first rounder after the season ends, but first he wants to make his mark in college ball. Last season he was 5th in the SEC with 1300 yards on a 5.3 ypc average and led the team with an additional 650 yards receiving with 21 total TDs. A great all-around weapon, even with defenses 100% keying in on him, he has been poised to break out even further with Oliveros drawing more attention. So far through 6 games he's had fewer touches, but 520 yards at a 6.35 ypc clip, and another 463 through the air is a great asset, way more efficient despite not having as heavy usage. Nobody is quite sure why Ezaco has been giving Neumann Williams touches over Dupree during some games, but maybe he's just trying to get a feel for what the transition will be like next year when Dupree is gone.

Tennessee this year is what happens after you lose a superstar RB talent. Last year Aldrick Ynoa was 5th in Heisman voting and averaged almost 300 yards from scrimmage in their 4 post-season games as the featured offensive weapon. This year there's been a noticeable void at the position. An early season surprise saw future heir apparent Joe Williams take a redshirt, leaving Senior J.C. Hardy as the assumed man. However after a few games of averaging only 3 ypc, scrambling QB Aytaba Johnson was brought in to get a different look. The two are currently splitting carries, and J.C. has bounced back a little, with 5.3 ypc (no TDs) while Aytaba has only had 3.5 ypc (4 TDs). They both function quite well as a backfield safety valve in the pass game though, combining for 34 catches on 42 targets for ~400 yards. Overall, they don't really scare anybody too much on their own, but are competent enough in the short passing game and can punish teams via the draw play if they get too cocky about defending the pass and get light in the box.

Advantage: 4/5 Kentucky, if it weren't for their pass-catching prowess this would be a 5/5 dominant Kentucky advantage

Wide Receivers

Here it is very hard to separate receiver talent from QBs, because on paper they are very, very similar. For Kentucky, the A1 GUY is Logan Njoku. He's a route runner with all A/A+ skills and is also on his way to being a likely first rounder this year. Right behind him is RS SO Brennan Dominguez who is incredibly sure-handed, and above-average at everything else (A- overall). Those 2 are the cream of the crop and actually only 1 other Kentucky WR has a catch: Brendan Belisle (Kentucky actually has RB Dupree at WR3 on the depth chart, not sure when the sim decides to put him where). Brendan has only 4 catches for 55 yards on the year so it very much is a Njoku - Dominguez - Dupree show. All three have shown they have chops, with a combined 67% catch percentage and a lot of big plays. They can abuse under-sized CBs, but have not shown a penchant for massive YAC or long bombs (but that could partially be Oliveros's arm). Ian Beverley the RS JR TE is also a receiving threat and quite consistent with 20 catches on 25 targets who can move the sticks on a few critical downs per game.

Tennessee has featured a lot more in their aerial assault with the 2 most prolific WRs in the conference: RS SR Matt Siri and RS JR Hayes Edwards. Both are pretty standard A overalls, they aren't superstars whose attributes leap off the page but they're very good at just about everything. Combined they already have 2000 receiving yards and are regularly making 30 yard completions and have a 77% catch percentage. The nominal 3rd WR is Will Jackson, a senior route runner who was hurt at the start of week 3 and is now coming back for his first game since the injury. A B+ senior, he's a great route runner who can make some of the more average CBs he's paired up against look like they're on skates. Haven't seen a lot of production this year with the injury but he's a very, very welcome addition back with some much needed firepower. In his absence the Junior red zone threat Eric Barnhart has picked up the slack. He doesn't have quite as high a catch % or yardage, but he's coming off a near-200 yard performance against TAMU and even moving down to WR4 should still be a factor. Like mentioned earlier, the RBs are good backfield threats and they have a few hundred yards from the down-roster WRs (mostly coming in garbage time with QB Walter Morgan). TE Kendrick Mateo is primarily a blocker and not much of a factor with only 5 catches on 11 targets for the year. 

Advantage: 2/5 Tennessee. They may look close on paper, but the proven production and depth of TENN WRs pulls this one.

 

Offensive Line

After all the stars, here is a position with a lot more regular joes. The Kentucky line features (from L-R) an: A- pass blocker, A- pass blocker, B pass blocker, B run blocker, B+ balanced. This is... ok for a top-25 team. Not a strength of course, but it's not horrible. There's a good mix of archetypes here and they definitely favor protecting the blind side and running right. 3 of these guys are graduating seniors though which is a little concerning for what is behind them. On the year RT Vizcaino is the only one with 2 pancakes, and nobody else has ANY, which shows how great Oliveros and Dupree are at making something out of nothing from the backfield. Again, Oliveros is pretty elusive and has only 3 sacks (all blamed on Vizcaino actually). Is he actually left handed? That would be funny.

Tennessee has a much younger line, and consequently less skilled (although they have juggled positions around much more). From L-R: A Line Captain, B pass block, B pass block, B pass block, B+ run block. Emmanuel Matthews was their C, but given they only have 2 players > B for blocking he kicked out to be the LT this year. The interior 3 linemen are all underclassmen and regularly get worked, with very little push in the run game. Their RT can move defenders but is also a liability against the pass rush. This is just not a good unit anyway you slice it. They've surrendered 13 sacks already (albeit on a lot of pass attempts) with 6 against their RS FR OT-playing-C, 4 against their run blocking RT, and 2 against Emmanuel Matthews. In a word they... struggle against good pass rushes. Their tackles each have 4 pancakes so they do get some push on the edges but overall.. not great.

Advantage: 2/5 Kentucky

 

Defensive Line

Kentucky has a pair of B+ edge players and B defensive tackles, all balanced or pass rushers. It's just an ok unit from a divisional contender, with the ability to shutdown most runs, but not a lot of game-breaking being shown. Junior DE Ramon Curletta is the only noticeable guy, and he has 9 TFLs on the season with 2 sacks and a FR. The rest of them mostly just tie up blockers and wait for the LBs to make plays. Not much to say

 

Tennessee meanwhile, the strength of their defense is in the interior. Two A overall DTs are anchoring the center in Markkanen and Marte, and on occasion they've kicked out to DE if needed. Marte was injured for the last 2 weeks and RS FR Doug Dimmadome Jr., son of Doug Dimmadome owner of the Dimmsdale Dimmadome, filled in more than adequately as the 5th lineman. DE Matthew Cano is the better of the two ends, and cumulatively the unit has recorded 22 TFL and 7.5 sacks, a bit below last years pace. The group is more than capable of stunting, rushing the QB, or stopping the run when necessary, as they've shut down some double wing attacks and already played one of the other contenders for top-RB in the nation (FSU Clayton Mcgee) and held him to < 100 yards on 22 carries.

 

Advantage: 3.5/5 Tennessee

 

Linebackers

The other 5-star player on Kentucky's roster: OLB Tanner McCarthy is their heavy hitter. An extremely smart and strong run stopper, he lays the wood on the regular and is a pivotal part of their defense. He's paired with LOLB Greer Daniels, a B+ overall Coverage backer who is responsible for TEs and RBs along with fellow coverage MLB Yohan Moore (A- overall). Tanner leads the team with 11 TFL and 3 sacks this year and the other linebackers are slightly less productive, but do a more than good enough job of stopping runs from getting to the second level and not getting beat in the flats.

Tennessee's linebackers in contrast are... not good on the outside. The only B- starter on either side in this game will be RS SO Albert Falu who is fast, but that just means he messes up more quickly than normal. On the other side Montrezl Link basically disappears. Despite being a pass rusher, he has 9 tackles and... ZERO other statistics on the year. Definitely a rough pair for Tennessee. Up the middle though, JT Adams is a phenomenal A- overall Run stopper who was briefly on the Heisman list earlier this year and has a sack, FF, FR, and INT on the year. 

Advantage: 3.5/5 Kentucky

 

Secondary

Next year Kentucky should have a good squad of CBs but this year they're not quite ready. They play a man scheme and top-3 guys are A-/B+/B overalls. They absolutely do not scare you on paper and gave up a ton of points to USC and Georgia through the air. They seem ripe to give up another 400+ against Savage, but you never know. In fact, Jordan Watson actually leads the nation with 7 INTs so they are more than capable of making teams pay for any errant passes, even if they aren't shutting you down every play. At safety is A overall Justin Marsh, who only has 1 INT and no PD despite his billing as a ball hawk, and B overall zone coverage John Austin who has 2 picks including a pick-six to his name. Overall the name of the game for this secondary is TURNOVERS. They get the ball a LOT, even if they give up some yardage (to top-tier QBs Longacre and Outman that is, they've shut down basically everyone else).

Tennessee has... average secondary players I'd say. They're in a delicate moment of transitioning where their Cb1 and 2 are man coverage guys and EVERYONE else on the roster is zone coverage. They've moved FS ball hawk David Johnson to CB3 to prevent those scheme mismatches but are very very thin as all 3 are B+ / B- overall guys. They're good, but not great and shouldn't be expected to shut down true A overall talents like Njoku. Matt Richardson is another ball hawking FS and at A- is the guy tasked with cleaning up messes while SS Jawun Burfict hangs around too and they've been good at stopping the deep ball for the most part. In contrast to Kentucky with 13 INTs, Tennessee's secondary has 3 total, all from CB1 Eric Harlow. They do have 6 combined pass deflections and haven't given up a ton of yardage but hard to say whether that's because they've mostly faced run-heavy teams or they're just playing over their level.

Advantage: 1.5/5 Kentucky

 

Special Teams:

Kentucky has a punter who exists, and an accuracy B+ kicker who's 12/15 on FGs and perfect on XPs. Very competent and both can be relied on. 

Tennessee meanwhile... has a punter? He hasn't played at all in half their games and basically doesn't matter. They ostensibly have a B+ power kicker as well, but the man is 9/11 and all 9 of his makes are from 28 and under. Shocking. He's also 29/32 on XPs which isn't panic-inducing but does make one nervous. 

Advantage: 1/5 Kentucky. 

 

Overall Breakdown:

	Kentucky	Tennessee
QB		2.5
RB	4
Receivers		2
OL	2
Offensive edge	1.5/5
Offensive starter breakdown	3 A, 3 A-, 3 B+, 2 B	4 A, 4 B+ 3 B
DL		3.5
LB	3.5
Secondary	1.5
Defensive edge	1.5
Defensive starter breakdown	2 A, 2 A-, 4 B+, 4 B	2 A, 2 A-, 4B+, 2 B, 2 B-
ST edge	1/5
Overall edge	4/40

 

 

Predictions:

Kentucky has the overall advantage on paper, but it is very slight. Honestly this game could go either way, and with the news that Ezaco is trotting out some new gameplanning, this could spell victory for the Wildcats. However, we've seen this story before and to me, Kentucky is an alternate flavor Florida State. All the talent in the world but it justttt doesn't quite mesh all the way. I think Brandon savage puts up 400+ on the Kentucky secondary and even if they pull off a few turnovers, he scores just enough to outpace the Oliveros-Dupree-Njoku show as Kentucky is left frustrated at home with "what might have been" this season. 

Final score prediction: 34-28 Tennessee.

[Sarge]

All of this to potentially lose to Alabama in a couple weeks.

Super sick article. This will give us a measuring stick for our upcoming game with Tennessee as well since Auburn decided to take our lunch money.