2023 Midseason | Young QBs are not good

[Bundy]

extremelyamazingmedia.com

 

With the NFL reaching its seasonal midpoint, its time to start looking ahead to next year for a large portion of teams and fan bases. With the early season hopes largely diminishing, its time to take a dive into the problems of some of the struggling NFL teams.

Today, we're going to look at quarterback play, particularly of the league's young quarterbacks. 

Too Early to tell

Seattle surprised a few by drafting Kemoko Allard in the 3rd, but the move has given them the ability to dump Luke Trahan - first to RB, and then off the roster entirely to Philly - which has the Seahawks currently in a playoff position at 4-3. The Seahawks don't have a true rushing threat to speak of, and yet, Allard has connected well with veteran Kevin Lund for over 700 yards. Allard also currently sits at (just) 4 TDs to (just) 4 INTs, completing just over half of his passes. They're probably too far down in potential draft order to snag a top QB prospect, but they also could draft an early QB to compete with Allard if need be.

Not Winning Games on his own, but not losing them, either

Tennessee's Wayne Reimer is in his 4th year post-college, and has a positive TD:INT ratio of 12:4! The Titans made big moves in acquiring John Hendrickson from the Vikings early last year, and flipped him for big gains from Cincinnati this season, as they look to compete with the AFC's best at 7-1 at the midway point. Randy Wright, a natural tight end playing receiver, has 813 yards, and the blazing speed of Gregory Sprouse makes him a formidable target who can stretch the field and score. John Knighten has eclipsed the 1k rushing yards mark as well, despite Reimer attempting the 6th most passes in the league, so the Titans don't have to worry about being 1-dimensional. 

Tampa and Gregory Taphorn exist. I mean, on paper they do, I've never seen them blow someone away, but Taphorn has 7 TDs to just 1 INT, with the very quiet @gren as the sole TB FO member. Taphorn also sits at 53%, which comes in 5th in accuracy % of major scrambler QBs. Its a very liberal use of "not losing games" sincs the Bucs are 3-4, but they lead the NFCS at the moment. 

There's Still Hope

The Buffalo Bills are 5-2-1, and there's no reason for Bills fans to not still believe in their 2023 1st Rounder Yusei Ascencio. He's thrown the 14th most pass attempts, but has the 8th best completion percentage of that group. The Bills also swung hard in the offseason and landed him ex-Dolphins receiver Brian Adams. Yusei and Adams have yet to link up for a score this year, but Adams had been the leading receptions guy in Buffalo thus far, hauling in 39 of 70 targets for 492 yards. Yusei has thrown 9 TDs to 11 INTs in the season's first half.

The Vikings snagged Christian Sinnock for cheap in inaugural free agency, and while they've taken away the "Big Three" supporting cast they had going into the League's kickoff of Mathew Madden (Washington), Paul Gurule (Pittsburgh), and Tracey Borders (also Washington), they've also seemed to shore up some of their teams balancing issues, acquiring some younger, promising linemen who align with a potential "prime" window, and some actual pro-caliber defenders instead of trotting out a near-constant starting grid of UDFAs. Sinnock struggles with consistency, though he's made great connection with franchise player Alex Williams III, with the pair connecting 42 times in 8 games, for 4 scores. He's also targeted tight ends 59 times this season, which is a massive change from 2022, when the Vikings primarily made use of current street-FA D.J. Neverauskas at the position, who had 27 targets across the debut campaign. Sinnock seems likely to be the Vikings signal caller with a leash of a few more seasons at least, and another fantastic progression could lock him into hype entering 2024. Still, he's thrown 10 TD to 13 INT, completing 56.60% of his passes, which is good for 8th of the leagues top 12 pass attempt throwers. The Vikings are 4-4, currently out of the playoffs, but just a half game behind the NFCN division leading Lions.

Carolina was wild last year and brought in Dekoda Link, who has managed to complete 51% of his 2023 passes, and the Panthers sit at just one game out of the NFCS lead... at 2-6. GM @Jambo has plenty of young talent and draft capital (including 3 2024 1sts) to build around Link, and they've added Russell Barnes and FA-afterthought Jose Maldonado to at least give Link some veterans to, uh, link up with. Don Scott isn't exactly torching defenses yet, but the Link to Scott connection is starting to build, with 70 targets and 33 receptions between the duo. Still, Link sits at 6 TDs to 7 INTs, and he'll need to at least balance the turnovers and scores if the Panthers have a desire to take the division crown, which would at the least give the @Sarge/Jambo duo some bragging rights.

Things are getting hairy

The Indianapolis Colts made a massive swing to acquire the 3rd overall pick of the 2022 draft, selecting "franchise QB" Rashaan Lyons. Lyons was downright dreadful during his rookie season, throwing just 7 TD to 24 INT, while completing less than half of his pass attempts. This year, he's already matched his rookie TD output at 7 TDs thrown, but has 11 INTs. He's failed to improve his accuracy though, staying steady at just over 48% completion percentage. Now, he has no ground game support, with the Colts leading rusher having just 210 yards on 117 attempts, so he's had to attempt the most passes in the league, which makes it easy to gameplan for opposing defenders. "Drop 6 into coverage and watch his head spin" quipped an NFC scout. The Colts are a putrid 0-9 on the year, but the Panthers own their pick. Barring a trade for a veteran QB, Lyons is locked in as the Colts 2024 starter. But the Colts currently own their own 2nd through 6th round selections, which could be big in the way of surrounding Lyons with capable offensive talent. 

Detroit GM @Jmjacobs has his work cut out for him with Randall Hanson at QB. Though the Lions currently lead the NFCN, Hanson has thrown just 6 TDs to 12 INTs, with leading receivers in yards Victor Villimar and RB David Perrigin combining for 568 yards and 4 TDs at a combined 20 seasons removed from college. Hansen is only completing 46% of his passes (which makes sense since he's a field general, and the general is obligatory because his caliber of QB play is akin to his personal holdings in The General insurance company). 

Texan Jerome Morrison is going to be a title changed on Linked In pretty soon. The Texans are a young team, but Morrison has shown nothing, with just 2 TDs to 9 INTs and an incompetent 48.40% as a Pocket passer. Sure, the receiving options aren't exactly threats, but John Fernandez has potential to do something, and Ryan Johnson is giving it his all in the backfield, with over 900 yards and over 5 yards/carry. 

Atlanta's fearsome duo of Chris Frazier and William Hawkins is fearsome alright - to the Falcon fans. Atlanta has a young corps of receiving options, but I think the team itself will just begin to build over the likes of everyone but Devonta Doyle. Frazier completed 43% of his passes in the early going, with 2 TD to 9 INT. Hawkins sits at 37%, with 1 TD to 4 INT. The braintrust of @subsequent and @mahrowkeen is certainly willing to try things at the position, but they might need to go back to the well again this season to just put out decent tape for Doyle. 

Scrambling for something

Russell Latimer sucks, period. He suffers from "scrambling", and can't complete 40% of his passes on the NFCW bottom dweller 49ers. He's attempted the 13th most passes this season, with just 2 TDs to 9 INTs, and hasn't added much in the rushing department either at just a hair over 3.4 ypc, with no TDs and 2 fumbles. The Niners traded this years' 1st for Tulane standout Fernando Thomas, who has just 100 yards halfway through his rookie season. Latimer is only passing for 3.36 yards/att, so for as mid as he and the San Fran rushing "attack" has been, it might be better to just hand the ball off 95% of the time and then chuck a few passes Thomas' way.

Monty Turner played a bit for Chicago. Gerald Lewis is their guy, so we're not gonna talk about him.

 

So who could be riding pine come next season?

The Colts can't afford to draft someone high, nor should they until they have a solid core for a rookie to develop in. Rashaan Lyons may have been thrown to the Lions, but he's the guy - at least for the first few weeks - of the 2024 campaign. 

Wayne Reimer and Tennessee are connected for two more seasons at just $2M/year. The Titans don't need to look at QB in 2024 at all.

Buffalo drafted Yusei Asencio 29th overall in 2022, and he's got two more years on his rookie deal. He's shown some improvement, and he's not losing the Bills games.

Christian Sinnock's Vikings are an extremely young team, starting rookies or 2nd years at RB1, RB2, TE2, WR1, WR2, WR3, etc. This core can grow together for the time being, and the Vikings will only add to it with their draft stockpile. Sinnock is also signed for a very reasonable $5.5M/year through 2026, so unless he absolutely falls apart, the Vikings probably won't look for a signal caller in the next 2-3 seasons.

Link and the Panthers have had some success, even if it hasn't turned into contender status yet. However, given the many early picks, if the Panthers FO falls in love with someone, they don't have to be Link'd up longterm, as Link's rookie deal runs out after 2025. I think they'll go with him at least another season, if not ride his rookie deal out and see how he progresses.

Kemoko Allard hasn't been mind-blowing, but he also hasn't been Luke Trahan-trash, and is signed for 3 more seasons. I think he gets the starting nod for at least the kickoff of 2024.

Though the 49ers don't have a first, I fully expect them to make a play for a vet (Lamar Johnson? is a scrambler vet who has 13 TDs:8 INTs and 55%), an early rookie (maybe moving into the late 1st or staying put early 2nd) or both. Russell Latimer can't hack it as a long-term starter. 

Jerome Morrison is tied to Houston for just next season, at a walloping $10.16M. It might even do the Texans some good to just cut him following the season to save ~$5.46M once you factor in a minimum salary roster spot. Or maybe even near the end of this year, and give some sort of look to Hung-Chih Anderson, a UDFA out of San Diego State who is signed for just this year at a cost of $3M. 

Taphorn and Tampa might be able to coexist a bit longer, since he's signed for 3 more years at $4.9M/year, with $9M total guaranteed remaining. I think this entirely depends on how active Gren or any new Tampa FO members are this offseason, with the Bucs owning their 1st-6th round picks. He's a bit pricey for his production, though I expect starting QB money to start to take off in the future, and he's not the worst.

Atlanta will have a new QB, guaranteed. Based Breadsequent can't stop crooting QBs to Michigan, and Mahrow has a big reputation at Houston. Hawkins is slated to hit FA, while Frazier can either ride pine for two more seasons at $2M, or can be cut for cap savings of effectively $0.5M. 

 

[alexfall862]

I would just like to point out that the web address extremelyamazingmedia.com does not exist. I feel tricked, exploited, and downright fooled.

[npklemm]

Lyons has one more year to show improvement. If he doesn't, I have some tough decisions to make.

[TuscanSota]

I'd rather give Allard more snaps to help him develop than to pick up another QB next draft.

[npklemm]

But, I hope in general this highlights how poor the drafted players have been generally. Building through the draft right now is very, very difficult.

[Minnow]

I look forward to a second half update as Yusei has definitely shown a second half boost