2023 1st rounder watchlist grading

[tsweezy]

Last year I wrote the following article with ~20 of my picks for who would be drafted in the first round of the 2023 draft. 

 

Lets go back and see how they panned out

Position	Player	College	Round/pick drafted	Notes
TE	Don Scott	Temple	1 - 2	Super Star player, already showing out for Carolina in preseason
DT	Tony Macura	California	1 - 6	Got slightly dinged as part of an all-time great DT class and his F stamina.
CB	Austin Bledsoe	Syracuse	1 - 8	First CB taken, and an absolute gem in draft reviews
OT	Rubby Stewart	Kentucky	1 - 3	The easy safe pick as a lockdown, road-grading LT
K	Elih Obada	Arizona State	2 - 63	First kicker off the board, will be in the league starting for a decade+
DT	Alejandro Rua	Louisville	1 - 1	Can't get any better. I had Tony slightly higher, but that A+ potential is just not going to get passed up. Future defensive POTY
WR	Andrew Jones	UCLA	1 - 4	I predicted he'd be the fastest man at the combine and he was. 4.32 at 6'0 is unreal, and he could be a big play machine
C	Ruben Shazier	Alabama	Ineligible	Scary that he has another year in college. Early pick to be the #1 overall (non-QB) player taken in 2024
DT	Marcus Sirles	Alabama	1 - 11	In another year where there aren't 4 top-10 talented DT, he probably goes higher. Still showed out and another disrupter up the middle
DT	Caleb Suarez	Missouri	1 - 5	The most productive of the DTs in college, he sealed his top-5 pick status with a great combine
QB	Brandon Smith	Kansas State	4 - 102	The first big miss. I noted that even though my algo had him as a top-20 player, I didn't really believe he'd be a #1 QB. Still, I thought he'd be a first rounder but he disappointed in the season and drops to pick 102. Still the 4th QB taken though
C	Noah Prater	Tennessee	1 - 9	Played at OT all year and gave up a few sacks, but managed to show enough at workouts to go top-10 (longest broad jump, 2nd highest vert, 2nd in bench, 2nd 3-cone, 2nd shuttle time, 2nd pass block grade out of Centers and OTs)
OT	Richard Plutko	FIU	1 - 19	All 3 of these prospects (Prater, Plutko, Valera) put up 40 bench press reps as the strongest dudes at the combine, Plutko was near the top of the leaderboard in most tests and got a first round grade
OT	Jeimer Valera	Houston	1 - 18	By far the quickest 3-cone drill, teams fell in love with his footwork and brains (highest OT wonderlic). Very well balanced, but not outstanding at either run or pass blocking yet
WR	Alex Henderson	Tennessee	1 - 15	Shot up the boards with his production during the year. He wasn't the best physical specimen, but he was top-5 at almost everything in the combine and offers a rarity: a top-tier red zone threat when the field gets compressed. Maybe slightly overdrafted, but a deserved first rounder
FB	Craig Crosby	Buffalo	3 - 94	He's a fullback, shocking he went in the first 3 rounds. Great hands though and can operate as a surprise pass-catcher
FS	Sergio Collins	Houston	1 - 30	just like DT, there were plenty of good FS, and Sergio managed to hold up athletically enough to become a first rounder.
FS	Miles Walsh	Oregon State	3 - 83	Not very physically intimidating, and a meh season at Oregon State and Miles fell a little farther than expected in the draft. He's very well rounded in coverage and honestly a bit of a steal in the 3rd.
WR	Fernando Thomas	Tulane	1 - 13	Tulane force fed this man targets and it paid off as he was the second WR off the board. Eye popping agility with the fastest shuttle time and 2nd best hands in the class, this is a guy who will consistently move the chains and make tough catches for years to come
FS	Jacob Carlin	Louisiana	1 - 20	Another of the FS squad, Carlin got the nod as the second FS this draft and went top-20
QB	Wilfredo Joseph	New Mexico State	2 - 51	The second QB drafted in a very weak QB class. Wilfredo fought off the scrambler stigma (with the help of a great name), and NYG is hoping super bowl champion Jan Miles can mentor him through a bridge period before he takes over.

 

So how'd my predictions go? Well, out of 20 players, there were 2 specialists who were first picks at their positions. The remaining 18 players had 15 first round selections. The only "misses" were the quarterbacks (it was just a weak class overall, although I did have a disclaimer that these were not top-tier talents), and FS Miles Walsh, who I think was hurt by weak demand by FS's and a strong class (although he was a miss yes). Other than that, 14 of the top-20 players came from my 18 man list so I would say that's pretty good prognasticating. 

The big misses? TE Ramik Phelps. He wound up pushing Don Scott for most athletic football specimen and boasted a 5-star pedigree. I undervalued the position and he wound up being a top-10 pick. 

CB Aaron McNitt and WR Richie Igwebuike were also top-15 picks who were on my radar, but I didn't pull the trigger and include them. They balled out though and went deservedly early.

Now the obvious question: What about next year?

See the predictions here (hint: Alabama is loaded again, and Baylor QB Travis Knebel is almost guaranteed to go number 1 or 2 overall if he declares after this RS JR season).

 

[Pumph]

I took a little flack for my Valera selection, but I'll gladly take an agile, intelligent lineman with good potential and versatility.  I would have taken him 5-6 spots higher if that was where I was picking.  Was an easy pick for me once I was on the clock.