[2023] Houston Texans Draft Recap

[BabaYaga]

The Houston Texans continued their multi-year rebuild this past week with the 2023 NFL Draft. Holding their original seven picks, the Texans brass knew they needed to make the right picks to continue their rebuild as a dud draft this year could set the franchise back a few more years. Let's take a look at the Texans seven draft picks below.

Statement from Owner/GM/Head Coach@BabaYaga:

I am pleased with this class that we are bringing in this year. Coming into the draft we had quite a few holes to fill and the only positions that we weren't truly looking at were the QB and RB positions. Everything else was on the table. We wanted to make sure that we got a solid combination of guys who can come in and impact right away and guys who could long term develop into a piece of our team. We did end up trading into the 2nd round to get a guy who we really liked and I think overall that it was a very successful draft for us. Of course, players will need to come in and prove it, but I felt like we hit a home run with a lot of these players. Everyone that we grabbed this year was projected to go in the 4th round or higher, besides one player, and that makes us very excited to see this group of guys compete.

1.08 - Austin Bledsoe - A-/B+ - CB - Syracuse
Owners Thoughts
We were very excited when Bledsoe fell to us at the #8 spot. We were going to go best pick available here and it worked out to where that one of our favorite players in the draft was still available. As the best corner in the draft, Bledsoe is ready to be a starter for us Day 1. We are hoping that he continues developing and we think that he can be one of the top corners in the league in a few years.

What did the Experts Say?
Bledsoe is the king of the 2023 CB class. At least for teams that like to run zone coverage, Bledsoe is the best possible option at CB. He could start for some CB starved teams at the #1 CB position, or as CB2 for even moderately talented CB rooms. He is a smart player and has a very good ceiling in the NFL. As a result, Bledsoe could very easily be in the top 10 on April 14th.

Pre-Draft Projection
1st Round

 

2.40 - Ramon Fry - B+/B+ - FS - SMU

Owners Thoughts
Fry was another player who we had an eye on early in the draft. We thought that he was a guy who would fit our scheme well. We even explored moving up into the first round to grab a free safety. A deal could not be made and it was an instant relief when his name was still on the board for us at #40. He's another guy that will likely be starting for us in the back-half of our defense this year.

What did the Experts Say?
SMU had a good season in 2021, but then came crashing back down in 2022. If there was one bright spot to 2022, however, it was Fry. He led the team in tackles and INTs. While the INTs are a good sign, the tackles are a mixed one. While it is good that Fry can tackle, it was more of an indictment on SMU that he had to tackle. Regardless, Fry has a great skill set and could probably rotate in on day 1, while taking a year or two to grasp the pro game.

Pre-Draft Projection
1st-2nd Round

 

2.43 - Jacob Grant - B+/C - OG - Illinois

Owners Thoughts
This pick might have been the most questioned of our draft as we moved a future 2nd rounder to move up and grab Grant. Grant led the Illinois line this year as they ran for over 3,300 yards. He's a polished guard and holds some of the attributes that we were looking for in a guard. He was by far the most agile OG in the draft, he put up 41 reps during the bench press, and he was the only sub-7 second cone drill guard. We felt like there was no way that he was going to last until our 3rd Round selection so as guards started coming off the board we decided to trade up to get our guy. (Editor's note: There were 3 OG's selected in the 10 picks prior to Grant and four additional were selected prior to our 3rd rounder. Don't think he would have lasted til then.)

What did the Experts Say?
Grant excelled at opening up running lanes for the likes of Gabriel Adeboyejo, Johnny Sheffield, and Storm Holt on the way to over 3,307 yards on the ground. He is a mauler that also likes to get chippy with opposing players. Northern Illinois DT Cayson Rodgers described Grant as the “dirtiest player I have ever lined up across”, and it shows on tape. Late hits, getting in guys faces, intentionally stepping on players on the ground: you name it, he’s done it.

Pre-Draft Projection
2nd Round

 

3.72 - John Fernandez - B/B+ - WR - Illinois

Owners Thoughts
Fernandez was our third round target from the very beginning and we were shocked that he ended up dropping to us at pick 72. Many teams were scared away by the lack of production his senior year (98 catches, 1680 yards, 24 TD's as a junior) but a deep dive into him gives us a reason why. Illinois changed head coaches and they went to a very run heavy scheme, so much so that Fernandez had only 82 targets on the year. We are betting on his ability to bounce back and we think he can improve and be a critical piece to our offensive future. He ran a 4.40 40-yard dash which is the best among all possession WR's and would have been 8th at the combine among all wideouts.

What did the Experts Say?
Fernandez is another perplexing player. Despite a great year as a junior, his senior year was a huge disappointment, and unlike some other players, he can’t say his lack of success was due to a run oriented QB. While scouts think he has a decent ceiling in the NFL purely as an athlete, many are concerned he won’t get to enjoy a long career due to what one scout described as “a rap sheet a mile long”.

Pre-Draft Projection
3rd Round

 

4.104 - Wilton St. Brown - B/B- DT - Ohio State

Owners Thoughts
This was another guy who we were sure would be long gone by the time our pick came around. We even mentioned that we were shocked that he was still available going into Day 2...only for him to fall further to us in the fourth round. This was a guy who we put on our board over a year ago as he had a great junior year (68 tackles, 29 TFL). But like Fernandez, he was a product of a scheme change as Ohio State swapped to a 3-4 and St. Brown didn't see the field much. We were shocked that other GM's did not pounce on the upside of St. Brown. We felt like we got a ton of value with this pick.

What did the Experts Say?
If you look at St. Brown’s 2021 season, you can see a player on a sky- high trajectory. Then, his playing time was cut massively in 2022, meaning he seemingly fell off the earth in terms of statistics. He still has physical talent, and it will be interesting to see if NFL teams feel like that 2022 season was more of a fluke rather than who St. Brown is as a player. Still, this has to push him down boards across the NFL.

Pre-Draft Projection
3rd round

 

5.136 - Luis Hernandez - B/C+ - OT - Oregon

Owners Thoughts
Hernandez was a guy that we had our eye on as Day 2 started and we thought that he would be gone in Round 4. He was still there in Round 5 so we pounced fairly quickly on him. You can see a trend with us as Hernandez, like our OG Grant, had the best 40 time at his position at the combine and he put up 41 reps at the pro day, which would tie him for the most of all OT's. We think that he could come in and contribute fairly quickly for us. He was one of the best run blockers in the class and if we are going to use Ryan Johnson to his full capabilities, we are going to need maulers up front. We felt like Hernandez was excellent value here for us.

What did the Experts Say?
It’s easy to rely on your physical gifts when you’re Hernandez. Putting up 41 bench reps at the pro day along with decent blocking scores means that Hernandez didn’t need to put in too much effort to win his matchups. In fact, some might even describe him as a bit on the lazy side, and it’s rumored that he never studies for tests and doesn’t watch game film. If that is true, it is even more impressive that he only allowed 2 sacks in 2022.

Pre-Draft Projection
3rd-4th round

 

6.168 - Cory Donahue - C+/B - OLB - BYU

Owners Thoughts
Donahue's measurables jumped out at us quickly when we were scouting the OLB class. He had a very good combine and had the 2nd best shuttle, the best cone drill, the 2nd most reps on the bench, and the 3rd longest broad jump. He also had the 3rd best performance in the run stopping drill and the 4th best performance in the pass rush drill. His combine combined with his 9.5 sacks last season made him the best pass rush OLB in the draft...and it wasn't very close in our opinion. We feel like Donahue very easily could be the best OLB in this draft behind Diallo. One mock draft even had him going at #32. We had him as a second round talent on our board and we are very excited to see how he is going to develop over the next few years.

What did the Experts Say?
N/A

Pre-Draft Projection
N/A

 

7.200 - Kyle Dwelley - B-/B- - DT - Liberty

Owners Thoughts
When the 7th round rolled around we wanted to take the best player available, no matter the position. We had Dwelley rated right behind St. Brown on our board so he was the pick for us. He showed really solid measurables at his Pro Day and was a stalwart on the Liberty line as he racked up 54 tackles, 14 TFL, and 3 forced fumbles in a 4-3 scheme which stood out to us. In any other year, we feel like Dwelley would have been a 3rd or 4th round pick. With his potential, we are excited to watch him develop over the next few years and we won't be surprised if he sees the field sooner than later for us.

What did the Experts Say?
Starting both his junior and senior years at Liberty, Dwelley was fairly successful in both seasons. Scouts are concerned that they did not really see any substantial development between 2021 and 2022 but admit that he is still a talented player. He is noted for always wanting to be the starter wherever he goes, even if he is not the better player and is impatient regarding his ability to grow into a role.

Pre-Draft Projection
4th-5th round

Edited April 20, 2023 by BabaYaga

[kgreene829]

Love the Cory Donahue pick overall and potential aren’t the best but I think he could be a pretty good player definitely a great guy to grab in the 6th round

[nemolee.exe]

the houston illini

[cultur3]

very nice

[Piercewise1]

I haven't looked at every team yet, but currently you're in my top 3 with Baltimore and Philly.  Bledsoe and Fry look like a great tandem, and you got a lot of value from your later picks as well. Kudos for diving into '22 stats and identifying guys that might be better than their senior year would suggest!

[BabaYaga]

13 minutes ago, Piercewise1 said:

I haven't looked at every team yet, but currently you're in my top 3 with Baltimore and Philly.  Bledsoe and Fry look like a great tandem, and you got a lot of value from your later picks as well. Kudos for diving into '22 stats and identifying guys that might be better than their senior year would suggest!

Thanks! Yeah, I had remembered those two put up big years the season before and I couldn't figure out why they had such bad seasons this year. Hoping they pan out for me.

1 hour ago, kgreene829 said:

Love the Cory Donahue pick overall and potential aren’t the best but I think he could be a pretty good player definitely a great guy to grab in the 6th round

Agreed. He was my flyer and the B potential is pretty solid relatively speaking as there was only one player above a C overall with a A potential. They all kind of blended together in that B to B- range.