Reaches and Value

[Sarge]

Let's talk about reaches and value at picks.

This is my personal opinion. Defend your selections or add your own to the discussion or tell me what you think!

Biggest Reaches
Denver Broncos - K Elih Obada 2.63
I just simply cannot justify taking a kicker in the second round, or third round for that matter. There were players still on the board that I feel added infinite value. For a thin safety room of guys reaching their contract years or coming up on year 5-6 in Denver, FS Miles Walsh could have been a great selection here. Instead, he continued to fall until late in the third round.

Cleveland Browns - OLB Gordon Diallo 1.24
If we're drafting for need here, which is what this indicates, I would have taken an impact CB here that's proven and will start immediately. I know Cleveland has a lot of young depth on the roster but I don't know how confident I am running some of those guys out there especially if injuries happen. CB Robert Canaday went a pick after Cleveland's selection. CB Brad Jones went an entire round later. I also think they could have gone guard with how deep the OG class was.

Kansas City - QB Theo Scribner 1.26
Look, I get it. Scribner was essentially a legend in the college ranks and his production couldn't be matched. I personally had a handful of QBs ahead of him. Kansas City has an obvious need at QB but  I think I personally would have tried to work a trade for a stop gap and wait for another class than go to the well on this one. The Chiefs don't have any weapons for Scribner as it stands and I think a WR Jakeem Erlin or WR Marco Thompson would've been good selection at #26.

Philadelphia Eagles - ILB Christian Palardy 1.23
Palardy has tons of upside, I'll give Philly that, but I probably would've gone with ILB Ola Cunningham if I wanted a starter right away. More polished product but weaker in coverage which maybe drew the Eagles to him for his coverage abilities. Speaking of coverage though, the Eagles could have made a bigger impact roster wise here getting their pick between top end Free Safeties, Jacob Carlin and Sergio Collins and then get a comparable player to Palardy with ILB Trevon Romero in the 4th, or ILB Fabian Powell in the same round.


Discuss if you agree or not or name some reaches you think I missed! Next post will be best value picks.

[Piercewise1]

36 minutes ago, Sarge said:

Cleveland Browns - OLB Gordon Diallo 1.24
If we're drafting for need here, which is what this indicates, I would have taken an impact CB here that's proven and will start immediately. I know Cleveland has a lot of young depth on the roster but I don't know how confident I am running some of those guys out there especially if injuries happen. CB Robert Canaday went a pick after Cleveland's selection. CB Brad Jones went an entire round later. I also think they could have gone guard with how deep the OG class was.
 

Our roster is full of cheap young CBs with lots of room to grow, including last year's 1st round pick. He started immediately, but Canady at a max OVR of 57 would've been our backup dimeback. A good player in time, but not the immediate impact people are making him out to be. In comparison, our OLBs are older, expensive, and near (or just past) the peaks of their careers. We're absolutely going to need new blood in a year or two, at which point Diallo will be at least a viable starter and, if he rolls well, genuinely good. 

We weren't expecting any day 1 starters out of this draft class, so we looked at positions where we could grow guys to replace aging talent (and clear up cap space for coming years, when the initial created contracts run out and costs go up). There were 3 positions that qualified - OT, TE, OLB - so that's how we spent our first two picks. In retrospect I could've thought more about an OG, though that's easier to say with the perfect knowledge that we would've been able to choose the first one.

[acewulf]

4 hours ago, Sarge said:

Philadelphia Eagles - ILB Christian Palardy 1.23
Palardy has tons of upside, I'll give Philly that, but I probably would've gone with ILB Ola Cunningham if I wanted a starter right away. More polished product but weaker in coverage which maybe drew the Eagles to him for his coverage abilities. Speaking of coverage though, the Eagles could have made a bigger impact roster wise here getting their pick between top end Free Safeties, Jacob Carlin and Sergio Collins and then get a comparable player to Palardy with ILB Trevon Romero in the 4th, or ILB Fabian Powell in the same round.

This draft had 5 ILBs with B- or better overall.  I'll post the statlines of those players here:

Games	Tackles	Tackles for Loss	Sacks	Forced Fumbles	Recovered Fumbles	Pass Deflections	Interceptions	Safeties	Defensive TDs
14	72	19	0	1	0	2	0	0	0
12	79.5	24	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
12	72.5	29	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
12	81.5	32	1	0	0	1	2	0	1
13	70.5	29	2.5	0	1	0	0	0	0

The player with the most tackles, most tackles for loss, most interceptions and most defensive touchdowns is the 4th line.  That's Christian Palardy.  As a Coverage archetype.  He beat out multiple Field General and Run Stopper archetypes for the top spot there.  He was the highest coverage drill grade ILB in the class at the combine.  

On top of that, he was the only ILB in that group to be an A potential guy and got an Excellent background check in the Focused Scouting group (We were the only team to invite him).

You can make the point about other positions that we could have taken, but Palardy is an excellent prospect and in our eyes was the top ILB on the board.  We already have a FS that we signed in FA that we love that went +5 and is in his prime.  

We made an excellent choice and I personally wish we could have gotten Powell as well, but other needs popped up at those picks and from a schematic standpoint Speed and Coverage are very similar.  

[alexfall862]

I feel attacked.

[Sarge]

Thanks @Piercewise1and @acewulf. The insights into the selections give a lot of clarity and I don't necessarily disagree with the picks, just where they were taken relative to where **I** valued those players. Value is all relative come draft day. 

 

The thought process behind both selections were clearly well thought out and meticulous. My goal was to try to point alternative directs teams could have gone for more appropriate value.

 

The only primary goal of this was to attack @alexfall862for taking a kicker and I needed additional things to make it look less obvious. /s

[kwheele]

On 4/17/2023 at 4:53 PM, acewulf said:

We made an excellent choice and I personally wish we could have gotten Powell as well, but other needs popped up at those picks and from a schematic standpoint Speed and Coverage are very similar.  

Do you mean this guy?