2023 Breakout Players to Watch Out For - AFC West

[subsequent]

Welcome to the second in a series of articles where we look at a potential breakout player on each team, go over their past season, how they progressed in the offseason, and finally make a bold prediction. Today, we review the AFC West.

 

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Kansas City Chiefs

 

 

4th year OLB Pass Rush Alen Riley

 

Relevant Progression

OVR 66 -> 70

AGI 76 -> 81

ZCV 55 -> 60

MCV 60 -> 65

FIQ 56 -> 60

PRS 75 -> 80

RDF 62 -> 66

SPD 77 -> 81

STR 65 -> 70

TKL 72 -> 77

 

Last Season

Riley featured in about 75% of all plays last year, but did not manage a single sack. For the Cheifs, the defensive line combined for 26, while none of the linebackers had one. Riley and the other linebackers spent a lot of the year dropping back in coverage and defending the run instead of trying to push forward to get to the quarterback. It was not a terrible year for Riley, but disappointing given that pass rush is his specialty.

 

722 snaps, 49 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 0 sacks, 1 INT

 

Analysis

We expect Riley to be the bonafide starter alongside Ramon Hubanks this year. The Chiefs may look to switch up their blitzing packages as both Riley and Hubanks have progressed very nicely this off season. Riley in particular has shown that he can be very quick out of the starting blocks and has an incredible sense of pursuiting the quarterback. Expect him to make a statement early this year.

 

Prediction

55 tackles, 13 TFL, 6 SCK

 

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Los Angeles Chargers

 

 

3rd year OLB Rodney Labell Pass Rush

 

Relevant Progression

OVR 66 -> 70

AGI 71 -> 74

ZCV 55 -> 59

MCV 57 -> 61

FIQ 60 -> 63

PRS 78 -> 82

RDF 61 -> 65

SPD 77 -> 80

STR 65 -> 68

TKL 72 -> 75

 

Last Season

That's right. Labell played in just 25% of the Charger's defensive snaps and ended up 10 sacks. The Chargers were one of the best pass rushing teams with 41 total sacks, and we expect more of the same this year.

 

265 snaps, 14 TKL, 10 TFL, 7 SCK

Analysis

Labell will start alongside Brian Stith and the Chargers will definitely not take a step back in defensive pressure. We expect them to finish the season with one of the highest sack totals with Labell leading the charge. Our estimates could even be very conservative here, if hit last year's stats are anything to go by.

 

Prediction

70 TKL, 25 TFL, 12 SCK, 1 INT

 

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Las Vegas Raiders

 

 

2nd year WR Red Zone Threat Andrew Richards

 

Relevant Progression

OVR 57 -> 63

AGI 56 -> 61

CTH 58 -> 64

FIQ 52 -> 57

RTE 49 -> 55

SPD 73 -> 79

 

Last Season

Andrew Richards's rookie season saw him featured heavily for the offense last year, but was unable to make the most of his targets, which were 4th highest on the team. His slower speed on routes hurt him as he simply was not able to get open very often, and when he did, he was unable to get past the first line of defense. All in all, it was a disappointing season for the first round pick.

 

1199 snaps, 53/98 for 450 yds, 1 TD, 364 return yards

Analysis

Prior to the season, Richards worked hard working on his hands and general route running abilities. This is evident in huge increases in all of his relevant attributes. Richards should continue to build up more targets this year and we expect him to use his large frame to box out defenders in the red zone more often.

 

Prediction

80/135 for 925 yds, 6 TD

 

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Denver Broncos

 

 

3rd year RB Adel Fraire Balanced

 

Relevant Progression

OVR 61 -> 65

CRY 57 -> 61

AGI 64 -> 69

CTH 52 -> 56

FIQ 51 -> 56

SPD 90 -> 92

STR 51 -> 56

 

Last Season

Fraire played second fiddle to William Kinley last year, but played well enough when he did feature. Most of his time came as a returner, but the Broncos did play him on some goal-line situations. His return numbers do show he has the capability to make some explosive plays and he was fantastic catching the ball out of the backfield.

 

596 snaps, 36 rushes for 63 yds, 2 TD, 9/12 receiving for 81 yds, 1 TD, 13 ST TKL, 647 return yards

 

Analysis

Fraire will remain the 2nd string RB this year, but does face a challenge from 6th year Edward Sarabia and last year's 6th round pick Tanner Lake. This offseason, Fraire spent a lot of time in the film room, reviewing game tape. He also focused on his agility, which should help turn his game into a very shifty one. We expect him to make an impact in the second half of games, punishing tired defenses.

 

Prediction

80 attempts for 275 yards, 5 TD

 

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We hope you enjoyed this quick analysis of potential 2023 breakout players. Do you like who we picked, or are there better options out there? Let us know in the comments below!

 

Next time, we will take a look at the NFC North.

[Piercewise1]

Wasn't Richards the guy who was criminally underused in college due to AI coaching? If I'm remembering right, glad to see he's finally getting his opportunity.

[npklemm]

Had 0 stats at Oklahoma iirc

[subsequent]

Oof! Did not know that. Interesting path to the NFL!

[Rocketcan]

Most Raiders pick ever