[2023] Pierce's Mock Draft 1.0

[Piercewise1]

With Pro Days completed, it’s time for everyone’s favorite activity – mock drafts! Below is my initial prediction of what might come out of the first round. I didn’t make any trades (so it’s already wrong) but I tried to balance team need and player availability.

 

Grades are Overall/Potential. I have no insider knowledge – I looked at Pro Day scores, veteran attributes, and team’s schemes from last year, all of which are public.

 

1.01 Baltimore Ravens – OT Rubby Stewart, Kentucky (A+/B+)

The Ravens could create an amazing interior D-line along with veteran Jeffrey Jesse (80 OVR), but if they want to run Spread Option with David Chop and last year’s 2nd round pick James Taylor, it’s hard to pass up the best run blocker in the draft.

 

1.02 Carolina Panthers (from IND) - DT Alejandro Rua, Louisville (A+/A+)

Carolina has four 1st round picks and a bevy of needs, so they grab the best player in the draft. Rua is a top-tier, plug-and-play starter who should make an immediate impact on defense.

 

1.03 San Francisco 49ers - DT Caleb Suarez, Missouri (A+/B+)

After focusing on the passing game with their first four picks last year, the 49ers beef up their defense with the 6’ 3” Suarez. Marcus Sirles is a possibility as well given their predilection for Pass Rushing DTs, but I’m leaning toward Suarez due to his better Potential and Pro Day scores.

 

1.04 Seattle Seahawks – WR Andrew Jones, UCLA (A-/A+)

The Seahawks do need a DT, but the draft is full of candidates. They also have an aging receiver room in desperate need of new blood. With his 4.31 speed, Jones can get some immediate snaps in the slot and then take over at WR2 once Eric Palkovich retires.

 

1.05 Carolina Panthers – OT Richard Plutko, Florida International (A-/A)

To continue their rebuild, the Panthers grab Dekoda Link’s blind side blocker. Plutko’s senior stats weren’t all that impressive (4 pancakes, 2 sacks allowed), but that Pass Blocking grade and A potential speak to his high ceiling.

 

1.06 New York Jets – TE Don Scott, Temple (A/A)

A bit high for the position, so maybe they trade down or grab the first CB in Austin Bledsoe. But Scott is a Receiving archetype and simultaneously a better blocker than most blocking TEs, so he could be a great addition to the Jets’ Double Wing front line while also serving as a safety valve for Lamar Johnson when he drops back to pass.

 

1.07 Green Bay Packers – DT Marcus Sirles, Alabama (A+/B-)

Even as the 4th DT off the board, Sirles is a huge addition to the team. His 40 TFL and 8 sacks point to his being a disruptive force in any situation. To be 295 pounds and have one of the best Shuttle and 3-Cone times of the entire class is a true marvel.

 

1.08 Houston Texans – CB Austin Bledsoe, Syracuse (A-/B+)

This might be a stretch since Houston spent 4th and 5th round picks on the position last year, but Bledsoe is better than both and would likely still walk in as the CB1. You won’t find many better Pro Day scores than his 10.2 in Zone Cover. Other than the two 2nd year guys, the Texans’ CB room is full of older vets on the way out.

 

1.09 Kansas City Chiefs – WR Fernando Thomas, Tulane (B+/A)

Maybe a reach, but the Chiefs are desperate for offensive playmakers not named James Carter. With no premiere QB to grab they select Thomas, who tallied 2,800+ receiving yards and 19 TDs last season. With his great hands and A potential, he could be a future superstar.

 

1.10 Atlanta Falcons – OT Jeimer Valera, Houston (B+/A)

Valera and #1 pick Stewart are the only linemen with 7+ scores in both blocking drills. He accumulated 7 pancakes blocking for Devonta Doyle and allowed 0 sacks. A solid acquisition for a team that needs an impact player at the position.

 

1.11 Minnesota Vikings – TE Ramik Phelps, Virginia (A/B-)

The rich get richer. Phelps has 4.33 speed with great hands, and is a solid pass blocker whenever he’s not running routes. Adding his prowess to a team with two 80+ WRs and last year’s 1st rounder Alex Williams III is a terrifying prospect for any defense.

 

1.12 Pittsburgh Steelers – CB Aaron McNitt, Vanderbilt (B+/B+)

Richard Lupo is entering his 10th year and every other CB on the roster is on minimum pay. McNitt could be the future for a team that’s already familiar with a Zone scheme.

 

1.13 Miami Dolphins - DT Tony Macura, California (A+/B)

On paper the Dolphins don’t have a ton of holes, and there’s only so far an A+ overall prospect can fall. Macura will slide in alongside one of the best veteran DTs in the business (David Buchheit, 82 OVR) and some other promising draftees from last year on the end.

 

1.14 Chicago Bears – OT Ryan Dunn, Oklahoma (A-/C)

Dunn is a bit of an enigma: a 5-star workout warrior (42 bench reps, 9.11 Pass Block grade) who nonetheless allowed 6 sacks last year with 0 pancakes. But the Bears need an answer for the aging Preston Smith, who is making nearly $15M in a contract year (his 9th in the league). Dunn would have a year to grow before joining one of the best pass blocking lines in the league.

 

1.15 Dallas Cowboys – OG Chris Butera, Washington State (B+/B)

I’m not thrilled with this pick, but the Cowboys are well-stocked at positions with the best remaining players (C, DT, FS) and their current O-line has a mix of all archetypes. So I’m going with Butera who had a whopping 32 pancakes last year and logged the second-best Run Block grade among all prospects.

 

1.16 New Orleans Saints – OT Damien Knebel, UNLV (B+/B)

The Saints’ current line is mostly pass blockers, so maybe they go for another young receiver here. But with last year’s selection of Stacy Moton (and Cade Alves’ age) it might be a good idea to invest in some run blockers and bring some more balance to the offense.

 

1.17 New England Patriots – C Noah Prater, Tennessee (A-/A)

The Patriots invested in a free safety and nose tackle last year, and paid Gary Freitag a huge stack of cash to hang around a few more years. Meanwhile their only center is a 56 overall who just went -2 in his 8th season. Prater graded well as a pass blocker but also allowed 10 sacks last year, a conundrum which the Patriots can hopefully circumvent by leaning on the run game and his impressive strength.

 

1.18 Los Angeles Chargers – DE Kyle Wilson, Oklahoma (B+/C)

A stretch based on need, because I’m not convinced that UDFA David Forbath is a long-term answer (and star Jeremy Pruitt went -3 in the offseason). Wilson is the best in a mediocre class, able to both stop the run and rush the passer. His combination of agility and strength vault him into the 1st round.

 

1.19 New York Giants – ILB Brett Zunino, Nevada (B+/B)

Zunino is another player who could benefit from a dearth of good prospects at his position. 29 TFL from a guy who can also cover is a great combination, and the Giants need a playmaker in the center of their defense. There aren’t many in this draft, so they snatch one up.

 

1.20 Detroit Lions – FS Zack Trawick, TCU (A-/C)

Conversely, the Lions have their pick of good free safeties to fill that need. They seem to have a thing for Ball Hawk archetypes, but Trawick has the versality to play any scheme while being particularly skilled in zone.

 

1.21 Buffalo Bills – OLB Christian Palardy, Charlotte (B-/A)

The Bills are desperate for good linebackers which are in short supply this year, so they use the earlier of their two 1st round picks on one. Palardy has one of the best LB coverage grades and also recorded 32 TFL last year. He’s just the kind of do-it-all guy you need to pull off a 3-4 scheme.

 

1.22 Las Vegas Raiders – OG Johnny Blach, Purdue (B/A)

Not the sexiest pick, but the Raiders need to get some better pass blockers in front of James Hixon if they want to maintain their success. Black has the scores to help in that department (and could be a game 1 starter given his current competition) even if he moves like molasses on a cold night.

 

1.23 Philadelphia Eagles –WR Richie Igwebuike, Penn State (B+/B+)

Igwebuike ran a 4.31 40 while scoring 8+ in both receiving drills, a feat which few others can claim. He immediately adds an extra dimension to the Eagles’ passing game, and gives them a legit WR2 once Nunes (now in his 10th season) hangs up his cleats.

 

1.24 Cleveland Browns – ILB Ola Cunningham, Western Kentucky (B+/C+)

The Browns fill out their 3-4 with one of the draft’s best run defenders, and he’s no slouch against the pass either. Along with veterans ILB Louis Dell and DT Richard Smith, he locks down the middle of the field in Cleveland.

 

1.25 Tennessee Titans – WR Marco Thompson, North Texas (B+/B)

John Knighten is entering his 11th year, so having some weapons around their young free agent quarterback seems like solid future planning. Thompson’s 10.89 Route Running grade should be a perfect fit for a Field General QB. If ownership would rather keep their focus on the ground game, free safety is another possibility here.

 

1.26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – OLB Gordon Diallo, California (B-/A+)

Ideally they’d get a run blocking tackle to pair with the all-world Haim Costa, but the players available seem like reaches for the first round. So they grab the best OLB on the board, a guy with huge upside at another position of need.

 

1.27 Buffalo Bills (from JAX) – WR Jackson Freitas, Ohio State (B+/A)

Freitas had tepid numbers last year (55 catches, 697 yards, 2 TDs), but rocked his Pro Day with a 9.41 Catching drill that placed him 2nd among all receivers. With that existing skill and A potential, there’s an argument for taking him in the 1st round. Yes the Bills already have a lot of young guys in that WR room who progressed well, but I don’t buy any of them as a long-term WR2.

 

1.28 Arizona Cardinals – FS Ramon Fry, SMU (B+/B+)

Fry’s 9.9 Zone Coverage grade is a gift at the bottom of the first round, and the Cardinals defense needs the help. They also need to get younger, as only 1 of their 8 picks last year played on that side of the ball.

 

1.29 Los Angeles Rams – FS Jacob Carlin, Louisiana-Lafayette (B+/A)

Carlin’s Zone Grade is excellent as well (9.17) and he has the higher potential, so he could go before Fry. Regardless, another good team fills a need late in the first thanks to a deep talent pool at the position.

 

1.30 Cincinnati Bengals – DT Preston Miller, Pitt (A-/A-)

In a different year, Miller could be a top 10 pick; this year, he’s the 5th DT off the board. His loss is the Bengal’s gain, as they get a big man who can start right away and immediately improve the position.

 

1.31 Carolina Panthers (from DEN) – WR J’Mon McCoy, Akron (B+/B)

McCoy impressed at his pro day, showing scouts a huge catching radius to go along with great route running. With a little development he could turn into a legit #1 receiver for Dekoda Link.

 

1.32 Carolina Panthers (from WAS) – CB Robert Canady, Wisconsin (B/B+)

Having secured protection and weapons for their quarterback of the future, the Panthers look for a shut-down cornerback. Canady has the best Man Cover grade in the class (8.73) and provides a cornerstone for the young secondary to build around.

 

That’s it! I hope this mock stimulates some spirited discussion, and maybe even motivates people to try their own. Happy scouting all!

[SageBow]

1.23 Philadelphia Eagles –WR Richie Igwebuike, Penn State (B+/B+)

Igwebuike ran a 4.31 40 while scoring 8+ in both receiving drills, a feat which few others can claim. He immediately adds an extra dimension to the Eagles’ passing game, and gives them a legit WR2 once Nunes (now in his 10th season) hangs up his cleats.

 

I love Richie and I love drafting local

 

(4) PAC-12 players mocked for Round 1, lets go West Coast!