2023 Nebraska Season Preview

[alexfall862]

A little early, but it's never too early for koolaid (invented in Grand Island, Nebraska)!

 

Check out 2022's season write-up here to compare notes: https://www.simfba.com/index.php?threads/nebraska-season-preview.3445/

Year in Review

Offense

Last write-up in the 2022 off-season, we talked about the trio of underwhelming QBs. This year didn't have the same issue, primarily because the Huskers only returned 1 of them. Francis Guerrero struggled throughout the season, but offered just enough to hold onto the starting job. One of the bright spots on the offense emerged with QB Poona Edwards starting the final 3 games and being the center of a moderately successful offense in each.

 

They also brought in a much ballyhooed recruiting class at the WR position, with 5* Ro'Derrick Billings, 5* Patrick Hernandez, and 4* Justin St Fleur - and the two 5* had what it took in spring camp to start the season along with the only returning player with experience in Orion Guy. While showing far more flashes of brilliance than 2022, the corps stills struggled for most of the season. The 2023 season looks to be more stable with a more productive QB locked in as the presumptive starter, and the offense will likely be more productive due to that alone.

 

On the ground, Du'Vonta Almonte and Richaun Alsadek combined for 1200 yards, and QB Francis Guerrero supplemented that production with 400 rushing yards on his own. All in all the group managed to swing 4 yards a carry, a much showing than the prior season. Guerrero showed a nose for the endzone with 6 rushing TD, propping up his anemic redzone passing numbers.

 

The line acquitted itself well, with Chris Diaz leading the team with 12 pancakes, and aside from a brutal sack-fest against Colorado kept the QBs in a pretty good condition.

 

However, the offense was not at all a sum of its parts, and had the 4th worst offense in the country by ppg. That said - the team still outproduced the 2022 squad by 7 points per game.

 

Defense

The Huskers improved greatly in the ground game, vaulting up to 41st in the country is rushing yards allowed - and save for a jaw-dropping game against Purdue allowing 400+ yards, acquitted themselves very well.

 

Where the Huskers really turned things around was against the pass. Nebraska managed to lead the entire country in pass defense, allowing just 168 yards per game, and much of that success can be tied to junior Elijah Guerrieri, who added in 8 picks - good for top 6 in the country - and Steven Hall and Connor Cozart, who led the team with 7 sacks each, and Hall adding on an impressive 17 TFLs.

 

All in all, the 'skers posted a top 5 defense by yards allowed and points allowed - and look to return a vast majority of their playmakers. A much, much better showing than their inaugural season.

 

Special Teams

Sylvester Conley still struggled this year, only clearing 10/21 field goals. After early season struggles, the team elected to only attempt kicks from 35 yards out and closer, effectively limiting their offense to 'touchdown or bust' for most of the season.

 

Punter Donnie Gentry picked up where Jaydon Looney left off, and booted 66 punts and landed half of them inside the 20. Both players are leaving the program, meaning the competition will be wide open to take over for the battery.

 

Overall

At 5-7, Nebraska improved in the standings, but perhaps more impressively, they closed the gap in their margin of error by 11 points, and finished their first season with a positive point differential.

 

Quixotic QB play mired the team throughout the season until freshman Poona Edwards was given the reigns after the team was officially out of bowl contention. Perhaps a point of regret for the team, Poona proved he had what it took to lead at least a modest passing attack - which would have likely ended up bouying the team to their first bowl berth.

 

Dropping the matchup against Colorado, and even more inexplicably Kent State, could have turned the other way with just a bit better luck moving the ball. The Wisconsin, Illinois, and Rutgers games were close as well. Overall an encouraging if frustrating season for the Huskers.

 

Week	Opponent	Huskers	Opponent	NEB MVP	Opponent MVP
Week 1	Northwestern	10	7	RB Du'Vonta Almonte | 19 car 122 yards	RB Eliezer Brothers | 27 touches car 145 yards
Week 2	Colorado	10	13	FS Ryan Scott | 4 tackles 1 TFL 1 INT	RB Pat Smith | 19 car 103 yards
Week 3	Florida	31	0	RB Francis Guerrero | 20 car 137 yards 2 TDs	RB Sam Haynes | 23 touches 85 yards
Week 4	Minnesota	17	13	DE Steven Hall | 4 tackles 3 TFL 2 Sacks	CB Ramon Carpenter | 4 tackles 3 INT
Week 6	Indiana	38	24	QB Francis Guerrero | 541 combined yards 3 TD	WR Tarell Griffin | 10 rec 179 yards 1 TD
Week 7	Rutgers	24	30	QB Francis Guerrero | 200 combined yards 2 TD	RB Brandon Krehbiel | 9 car 74 yards 1 TD
Week 8	Purdue	10	34	WR Orion Guy | 4 rec 96 yards	RB Logan Langley | 32 car 270 yards 2 TD
Week 10	Illinois	7	10	QB Francis Guerrero | 218 combined yards	RB Gabriel Adeboyejo | 19 car 117 yards 1 TD
Week 11	Kent State	13	14	RB Richard Alsadek | 9 car 75 yards	QB Keion Ernsberger | 197 combined yards 2 TD
Week 12	Michigan	10	27	QB Poona Edwards | 227 yards 1 TD	OLB Spencer Lacombe | 5 tackles 3 TFL 1.5 sacks
Week 13	Wisconsin	14	17	QB Poona Edwards | 209 yards 2 TD 1 INT	RB Kurt Bierria | 26 touches 120 yards 1 TD
Week 14	Iowa	21	10	QB Poona Edwards | 236 yards 2 TD	QB Ben Rivera | 162 yards 1 TD
Average	MOV: 0.50	17.08	16.58	-	-

 

Recruiting

Nebraska didn't bring in nearly as much star-power as the previous year's recruits with the 61st ranked class out of about 70 classes, but the program is excited for the needed depth and class pacing at several positions, notably QB and OL.

 

Signees are below:

Name	Star	Position	Archetype	Potential
Dwayne Riddle	4	OG	Run Blocking	C+
Juan Arana	4	QB	Balanced	C
Michael Hecht	3	CB	Man Coverage	B+
Richard Fiveankles	3	P	Power	B
Robert King	3	ILB	Run Stopper	B-
Bernard Walter	3	DT	Pass Rusher	C
James Woelfle	3	DE	Run Stopper	C+
Lee Casteel	3	OLB	Pass Rush	B-
Charles Edwards	3	K	Accuracy	B
Tony Miller	3	DT	Pass Rushers	C+
Christopher Lengacher	3	TE	Vertical Threat	C
Mark Childers	2	WR	Speed	B-
Michael Koester	2	WR	Speed	B-
Joseph Young	2	CB	Man Coverage	B-
Gary Felsing	2	WR	Route Runner	B+
Brian Claflin	2	TE	Vertical Threat	B
Dean Yoshimoto	2	DT	Balanced	B+
Kou Hwang	1	FS	Man Coverage	C-
Donald Taylor	1	RB	Receiving	B+
Howard Martin	1	OG	Balanced	D
Scott Krueger	1	RB	Speed	A-
James Sullivan	1	OT	Balanced	A

 

Outgoing Talent

 

In contrast to the previous class, the Huskers are only losing two A overall players that project to the next level, with partial A overall starter Francis Guerrero also leaving - though he didn't finish the season as a starter. Starters bolded.

 

Position	First Name	Overall
QB	Francis Guerrero	A
QB	Bryce Tocci	C
RB	Du'Vonta Almonte	B
RB	Jesus Machado	B
WR	Orion Guy	B
TE	Antonio Scott	B
C	Alex Callahan	B
OG	Enyel Boxberger	A
OT	Wes Hoskins	B
OG	Patrick Noonan	B
OT	Brennan Are	C
DE	Steven Hall	A
DT	Daric Martin-Oguike	B
DT	Wyatt Sutton	C
OLB	Francis Ohman	B
ILB	Josh Rodriguez	B
CB	Jaryd Sterling	B
CB	Chris Wilson	B
SS	Hercules Mills	B
FS	Tyler Cumpton	B
K	Sylvester Conley	B
P	Donnie Gentry	B

 

Nebraska has 2 players eligible and likely for the draft, along with Francis Guerrero, who could pull himself into UDFA by showing strong tools if he can get into private workout with teams.

 

Draftable Players

Projected Round	Player	Position
4	Steven Hall	DE
6	Enyel Boxberger	OG
UDFA	Francis Guerrero	QB

 

Returning Talent and Outlook

Leading Returning Production (bolded=starter going into 2021)

Position/Player	Production
QB Poona Edwards*	672 yards passing, 6:1 TD/INT ratio
RB Richaun Alsadek*	517 yards rushing 3 TD, 138 yards receiving 1 TD
FB Isaiah Robinson*	38 yards receiving
WR Ro'Derrick Billings	315 yards receiving 2 TD
TE Kyle Basham*	190 yards receiving 1 TD
OL Chris Diaz	12 pancakes, 2 sacks allowed
DE Connor Cozart	45 tackles 8 TFL 6.5 sacks
DT Tre Cole	11 tackles 1 TFL 1 Sacks
OLB Courtney Mikell*	7.5 tackles
ILB Keenan Cruz	40.5 tackles 7 TFL
CB Elijah Guerrieri	26 tackles 1 FF 8 INT
S Ryan Scott	38 tackles 1 TFL 1 Defensive TD
K Shane Crawford	-
P Ricardo Coleman	-

*partial 2022 starter

Position Battles to Watch

QB2: Poona Edwards comes into the season as the presumptive favorite, but he has limitations schematically as a player, with very little to offer on the ground. The question for the Huskers is going to be whether they look into senior Gleyber Hinojosa or youngsters Juan Arana or Steven White will see playing time.

 

RB: The second offseason with the leading rusher departing, we'll likely see a similar pattern continue - with the prior season's backup in Richaun Alsadek leading the charge. Senior Oday Rodriguez and junior Dan Thompson are will look to see snaps in relief, however, with the runningback room looking a little long in the tooth, the Huskers may elect to try and redshirt Richaun to extend his shelf-life to make sure they have a quality starter eligible for 2025. Right now there's nothing other than walkons and upperclassmen in the room. If so, Oday v. Dan is a position to watch. FB Sam Ward may see snaps at RB as well. If he acquits himself well on the ground, he could change positions to RB full-time.

 

WR2: Last season had 1 catch for 6 yards in returning production, but this year sees most of the class return, and some new faces with strong showings in the spring. Frosh Ro'Derrick Billings will lead the group next year, but with Patrick Hernandez and Justin St. Fleur both taking a redshirt year, the battle for WR2 is going to be anyone's game. Seniors Brett Sendejo and Jalen Escobar have the best hands on the team, but 3rd year player John Bonifacio shined in spring practice and may see reps ahead of the rest of the room.

 

C: Alex Callahan is out, so the Huskers are going to be looking for a new captain of the offensive line. Dexter Hunter and Yu Gobert are neck and neck through spring practice, but Quinten Mathieu has all the tools to fit with both QB Poona Edwards and has 3 years of eligibility as well. Quinten has every opportunity to grow into the role if he can

 

DE: NFL prospect Chris Hall moves on from the team, leaving the LE spot wide open. Look for senior Luis Ridley and pass rushing specialist Tim Zimmerman to fight for the spot opposite Connor Cozart.

 

DT2: As another quality starter leaves in Daric Martin-Oguike, the Huskers are going to once again replace their anchor on defense. Tre Cole will hold on to his spot as the 3-tech, but they'll look to add a run stopper opposite the senior. Braxton Lewis and Malcolm Thompson are the best options the Huskers have at that position, but neither offer what the team is looking for at the 1-tech, and so expect plenty of young players to get their chance at the spot.

 

MLB: With the Huskers looking a little light in the middle of the defense, the question of who's going to quarterback this team is up in the air. Keenan Cruz has all the physical gifts and experience, but junior Cory Johnson and sophomore Jalen Schwartz have both shown better ability to play all 4 quarters consistently. This is the position battle to watch for the spring, in addition to DT2, this is the battle to watch this season. Depending on what they team feels they have at these positions,

 

K: Shane Crawford vs. Troy Bailey is going to be a battle between styles. Shane has D1 accuracy, but Troy has the leg to make the kicks necessary to extend the Husker's scoring range. The question in this battle isn't likely to be "Who's better?", but "Who's better for the team right now?" with both offering different advantages - though Troy has a much higher ceiling if he can get consistency on his kicks.

Spring 2023 Depth Chart

Position	Player	Overall	Year
QB1	Poona Edwards	B	So
QB2	Gleyber Hinojosa	B	Sr
QB3	Steven White	C	Fr

 

Position	Player	Overall	Year
RB1	Richaun Alsadek	A	Jr
RB2	Oday Rodriguez	B+	Sr
RB3	Dan Thompson	B-	Jr

 

Position	Player	Overall	Year
FB1	Sam Ward	B	So
FB2	Isaiah Robinson	B-	Sr

 

Position	Player	Overall	Year
WR1	Ro'Derrick Billings	A	So
WR2	Brett Sendejo	B+	Sr
WR3	Jalen Escobar	B+	Sr
WR4	John Bonifacio	B+	So
WR5	Tyus Edelman	B	Jr

 

Position	Player	Overall	Year
TE1	Kyle Basham	B+	Sr
TE2	Josh Good	C	So
TE3	Sam Ward (FB)	C	So

 

Position	Player	Overall	Year
LT1	Chris Diaz	A	Jr
LG1	Hunter Familia	A	Jr
C1	Alex Callahan	B	Sr
RG1	DJ Acosta	B+	So
RT1	Robert Bell	A-	Jr
LT2	Taven Pujols	B-	Jr
LG2	Brennan Whitehair	B-	Jr
C2	Yu Gobert	B-	Sr
RG2	Marcos Alacantara	B	Fr
RT2	Trayvon Theis	C+	So

 

Position	Player	Overall	Year
LE1	Luis Ridley	B+	Sr
RE1	Connor Cozart	B+	Jr
LE2	Chris Niklas	B-	Sr
RE2	Tim Zimmerman	B+	Sr

 

Position	Player	Overall	Year
DT1	Tre Cole	B+	Sr
DT2	Braxton Lewis	B-	Jr
DT3	Malcolm Thompson	B-	So

 

Position	Player	Overall	Year
LOLB1	Glenn Rodriguez	B	Sr
ROLB1	Courtney Mikell	B	So
LOLB2	Bruce Feeney	B-	So
ROLB2	Steven Taylor	C+	Jr

 

Position	Player	Overall	Year
ILB1	Keenan Cruz	B	Sr
ILB2	Cory Johnson	B-	Jr
ILB3	Jalen Schwartz	B	So
ILB4	Tress Robinson (SS)	C	Sr

 

Position	Player	Overall	Year
CB1	Elijah Guerrieri	A	Sr
CB2	Danny Henderson	B	So
CB3	Reese Kanoff	B	Jr
CB4	Julian Ateman	B-	So
CB5	Trevor Lucas	B-	Jr

 

Position	Player	Overall	Year
FS1	Ryan Scott	B	Jr
SS1	Tress Robinson	B	Sr
FS2	Matt Iwakuma	B-	Sr
SS2	Cardal Watson	C+	Jr

 

Position	Player	Overall	Year
K	Shane Crawford	B	So
P	Ricardo Coleman	B-	So
KR	Tyus Edelman	B	Jr
PR	Tyus Edelman	B	Jr

 

Scheme

Offense: The Huskers continued cycling through schemes and continued cycling through quarterbacks this season, but with freshman Poona Edwards showing signs of stardom in the last 3 games of the season, the Huskers look primed to roll out a pro-style offense for 2023. This means that now sophomores Sam Ward and Ro'Derrick Billings seem primed to show out this season, along with Richaun Alsadek and Kyle Basham.

 

Defense: Nebraska ran a 4-3 all season, and it benefited them greatly. It remains to be seen whether that will carry over into next season, as the team fields arguably it's weakest positions at both the DT and ILB spots. Look for some more experimentation this spring for the team as they look to repeat their success from this season.

Schedule

 

Starting with 3 games on the road, including kicking off the season against a strong Kansas squad is a tough draw for the 'skers, but the total record of their opponents' coming into the season equates to essentially the same season Nebraska had last year (5.5-6.5 average opponent record at .460 win pct). Unfortunately, much of this comes from Minnesota's tough showing last season, and the Huskers find themselves with only 5 games against teams that had worse seasons than they did - including a Purdue team that beat the brakes off Nebraska last season. There's a path to a bowl game in here somewhere, but the team is going to have to be able to count on consistent improvement from several positions to make that happen.

 

Week	Opponent	2022 Record
Week 1	at Kansas	9-4
Week 2	at Minnesota	0-12* (won offseason toilet bowl)
Week 3	at Cal	4-8
Week 4	UNLV	4-8
Week 5	Michigan	4-8
Week 6	at Illinois	9-4
Week 8	Northwestern	8-6 (won division)
Week 9	Purdue	4-8
Week 10	at Michigan State	11-3 (won conference)
Week 11	Maryland	5-7
Week 12	at Wisconsin	6-7
Week 14	at Iowa	6-7
	2023 Previous Season Opponent Record	70-82 (.460)

Wrap-Up

 

Last offseason, we wrote that a 6-6 season would show signs of life heading into 2023, and while 5-7 is not that record - the Huskers, and especially the defense, showed tremendous growth this season, as well as reasons to be optimistic going into next season. They look to have found their QB, and with a bevy of strong weapons in the wings, we have to expect a better season from the offense. If the defense can hold together and replicate just 80% of what they did last season, this could be the season for Nebraska to go bowling.

Edited January 31, 2023 by alexfall862