2022 [CBB] Preseason Top 25 Review - Post OOC Games

[Ezaco]

With four conferences (ACC, Big Ten, MAC, Pac-12) having already begun conference play, and five more (A10, Big East, Big XII, SEC, Sun Belt) beginning conference play in Week 5, I thought it'd be a good idea to look back at our Preseason Top 25 and where they're at as conference play really begins to ramp up. Granted the American, C-USA, Mountain West, and West Coast don't begin conference play until Week 6, but ehh...

 

1. St. John's Red Storm

Preseason Poll: #1

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: #3

Preseason Expectation: NCAA Tournament - Final Four, Big East Champion

 

St. John's started off the season as the voting favorite - and it wasn't a bad choice, in my opinion. An experienced coach and a talented roster, the Red Storm have, unfortunately, struggled in out of conference. The Red Storm are 4-4 on the season, with wins over Army (preseason #16), UC Irvine, Indiana, and Maryland. They've also lost to Bowling Green (preseason #25), a dreadful UMBC, and two really good teams in Washington State (current Top 10) and Jacksonville. Aside from UMBC these are 'good' losses, but they only have one 'good' win (and Army hasn't panned out either... more on them later). It's not the result you'd expect from the preseason #1, who now finds themselves out of not just the Top 25 but also NCAA Tournament projections. There's still plenty of season left, though. St. John's is still a strong team who is starting to understand themselves (with a blowout win over Maryland and an instant classic one-point loss against Jacksonville). They should still finish in the top half of a Big East Conference that has plenty of dangerous teams, but also plenty of duds.

 

Updated Expectations: St. John's can still be a Final Four team, but it's nowhere near as clear-cut as it was previously. There's a lot of good teams out there, even just in the Big East where Butler seems to be the big dawg (ha) right now, and Xavier, DePaul, and Georgetown are exceeding expectations. I expect St. John's to make the tournament, but going into the second weekend could be a struggle and will depend on the seeding they can get from a better-than-expected conference schedule.

 

2. :utah: Utah Utes

Preseason Poll: #2

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: #12

Preseason Expectation: NCAA Tournament - Sweet 16

 

Utah, on paper, looked like a scary team to many. But they seem to have been a paper tiger so far. The Utes are also 4-4, with wins over Mississippi State, Miami (OH), Michigan, and Appalachian State (preseason #5). Their losses include Saint Louis (current Top 10), Central Michigan (current Top 10), Mississippi State (yes, a rematch), and DePaul. None of those wins are anything spectacular as none of those teams are quite very good (even though the Michigan win was by 32 points). Losses to Saint Louis and CMU are plenty fine, but losing the rematch to Mississippi State and to a not great DePaul team are bad. So what are the Utes? They still seem decent, but up against any opponents of quality they can't keep up.

 

Updated Expectations: Utah might make the tournament at this rate. The Pac-12 is shaping up with two scary teams at the top with Washington State and UCLA, with a decent middle. Right now Utah is projecting in the bottom half. If they can do better while in conference play and pick up wins over the bottom half and swing some wins in the middle they have a chance. But I no longer see them getting out of the first weekend.

 

3. Villanova Wildcats

Preseason Poll: #3

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: #9

Preseason Expectation: NCAA Tournament - Elite 8

 

Another top team, another Big East team, another disappointment. The Wildcats are also 4-4, but finally breaking from the pattern there are no good or bad wins or losses here, they simply are. Villanova has beaten Texas Tech, Boise State, San Diego State, and Clemson. But they've lost to Ole Miss, Penn State, New Mexico State, and Charlotte. For where they are right now none of these losses are bad, per se, but for where they were they're atrocious. Villanova is still a decent team, but they're no one to be afraid of.

 

Updated Expectations: Villanova should pick up some wins against the bottom half of the Big East, and maybe against some of the currently over-performing teams there too. If they do that they can still be the third best team in the Big East and make a statement for the tournament. But they're going to have to do a lot to do that, and I'm not quite sure they can.

 

4. :coloradostate: Colorado State Rams

Preseason Poll: #4

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: #2

Preseason Expectation: NCAA Tournament - Final Four, Mount West Champion

 

There are very few more disappointing teams right now than Colorado State. We have yet another 4-4 team, with wins over Arkansas, South Alabama, Cincinnati, and Iowa State. On the other hand they've lost to Middle Tennessee, Loyola Chicago, Cincinnati, and Saint Joseph's. The Rams are sitting at 108th in the composite rankings, and 75th in KenPom. It's quite the show, or really lack thereof.

 

Updated Expectations: The Rams aren't going to win the Mountain West. And with that they're not going to make the NCAA Tournament, and if they even make the NIT it'll be a very low seed. The Mountain West is full of bad teams, but the Rams aren't playing well enough to take advantage of that regardless.

 

5. Appalachian State Mountaineers

Preseason Poll: #5

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: #1

Preseason Expectation: NCAA Tournament - Final Four, Sun Belt Champions

 

There probably isn't a team more disappointing than Appalachian State right now. This is an absolutely stud roster. But the Mountaineers are sitting at 3-5. Their wins include Charlotte, UConn, and Akron. Yeah, that's it. And their losses? UMass, Michigan State, UC Irvine, Utah, and Fordham. The situation here is dire, and it won't get better. The Sun Belt isn't exactly a show out conference, but App State is playing even less than that.

 

Updated Expectations: I expect the Mountaineers to be sitting at home come tournament time. Which is a shame given this roster. And that coach should find a nice, deep place to hide.

 

6. :liberty: Liberty Flames

Preseason Poll: #6

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: #5

Preseason Expectation: NCAA Tournament - Elite 8, C-USA Champion

 

Liberty isn't meeting expectations yet, but they're still in decent shape. At 5-3 their wins include George Washington, Buffalo, USC, Loyola Chicago, and New Mexico. Their losses are Seton Hall, North Carolina, and Vanderbilt. Liberty certainly hasn't shocked the world, but they're still a contender to look out for. But they have a lot more competition than expected.

 

Updated Expectations: Liberty should still make the NCAA tournament, but given they should also draw a lower seed it'll be tough for them to advance. With Jacksonville and UAB poised to run amuck the conference, and FIU still right there as well, it's going to be a tall task.

 

7. San Francisco Dons

Preseason Poll: #7

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: #16

Preseason Expectation: NCAA Tournament - Sweet 16, West Coast Champion

 

Well. This was an atrocious pick. San Francisco is 2-6 on the season currently; 164th in composite rankings and 165th in KenPom. They are sitting at the very bottom of performers in the WCC, below even 1-7 UC Irvine. Their only wins are San Diego State and West Virginia, while they've lost to Southern Miss, Stanford, Saint Louis, Memphis, South Carolina, and USC. Now don't get me wrong, these are (mostly) good teams... but the Dons haven't even been in these games with all of them except Stanford and Southern Miss being by double digits. It's really bad in San Francisco, and it's not going to get better soon.

 

Updated Expectations: Bad. Miss the tournament, miss the NIT... the Dons are going to be at the tail end of the NCAA as a whole come season end.

 

8. :ku1923: Kansas Jayhawks

Preseason Poll: #8

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: #17

Preseason Expectation: NCAA Tournament - Sweet 16, Big XII Champion

 

At this rate we should probably admit we're bad at predictions. Kansas is sitting at 3-5, with wins over Wichita State (preseason #8), Utah State (current Top 25) and Wisconsin. Now look these are good wins, but they're turning into not good wins. Their losses? Purdue (current #1), Duke (current Top 25), Indiana, South Dakota State (preseason #8), and Miami. Two of those are fine, but the rest? The Jayhawks should be blowing out teams like Indiana (Kansas is their only win this season). And don't look for conference play to be any easier, oh no. West Virginia and TCU are tearing up the out of conference, with West Virginia angling for the Top 10. Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas State are all sitting at .500 or better and looking incredibly dangerous. There's a lot for the Jayhawks to figure out, and no time left to do so.

 

Updated Expectation: At some point they might figure it out. Unfortunately I also don't think it will matter, as the deluge of the Big XII will also catch up to them and bury the Jayhawks in the middle of the pack and miss the tournament.

 

8. :newmexico: New Mexico Lobos

Preseason Poll: #8

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: #6

Preseason Expectation: NCAA Tournament - Elite 8

 

Another 4-4 team without excuses. The Lobos have wins over La Salle, SMU, George Washington, and Stanford. They have losses against Texas State, Houston, DePaul, and Liberty. The closest margin in any of these games was 8 point wins over La Salle and George Washington. They are either going to win spectacularly or lose spectacularly. Things are still bright for the Lobos, though, as the rest of the Mountain West is preeeetty bad. Air Force and Utah State are going to cause problems, but New Mexico should be right in the mix with them against the rest of the conference.

 

Updated Expectation: New Mexico will find its way into a late seed for the NCAA Tournament and probably go home early. If they don't, it'll be a high seed in the NIT and advance pretty far.

 

8. :lookbackatitjackrabbit: South Dakota State Jackrabbits

Preseason Poll: #8

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: Unranked

Preseason Expectation: NCAA Tournament - Round of 64

 

The Jackrabbits are still okay. They're 4-4, and having already started conference play they're 1-0 there as well after winning the opener against Akron. Their other wins are Jacksonville, Kansas, and Gonzaga. Their losses are Nebraska, Tennessee, San Diego, and Georgia State. And they're sitting in pretty good shape to continue their trajectory and sit in the top half of the MAC. There's really not much to critique against South Dakota State right now, because they're pretty much performing exactly as expected (with the exception of the Nebraska loss).

 

Updated Expectations: No update. I think this one (so far) is sitting pretty accurate, with the Jackrabbits poised to hit the NCAA tournament, but exit in the first weekend.

 

8. Wichita State Shockers

Preseason Poll: #8

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: #4

Preseason Expectation: NCAA Tournament - Elite 8, AAC Champions

 

Wichita State is going to be one of the biggest mysteries come season end. This is a team everyone was afraid of. But right now they're sitting at 4-4, with losses to Texas Tech, Santa Clara, Kansas, and Tennessee. Their wins? Florida Gulf Coast, Ball State, Florida, and Florida Atlantic. Now yes, they did start out 0-4 and are since 4-0, but how much better can they do? Will that sustain? From what I've seen so far the answer is no... but it's entirely possible. The American is looking dreadfully weak, and they should surpass the likes of Temple and Tulsa, and possibly even Houston. If they can do that there's a chance for a short run.

 

Updated Expectations: The Shockers will probably still make the NCAA tournament, and they should do well enough for a decent seed to help them to the second weekend. At this point though that might be the farthest they can go.

 

12. :tulsa: Tulsa Golden Hurricanes

Preseason Poll: #12

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: #8

Preseason Expectation: NCAA Tournament - Elite 8

 

So far this seems to be the best team of the predictions. Tulsa is currently sitting outside the Top 25, but only because they haven't been as dominant as expected. This is a team that is still 6-2, with wins over Ohio, Mississippi State, Ball State, Oklahoma State, Eastern Michigan, and UTEP. Their losses are to Coastal Carolina and VCU. Admittedly these were blowout losses, but these are still 'good' losses. Tulsa is still sitting in Quadrant 2, and with those wins they're 15th in the RPI. Tulsa should continue to do well and will contend with Wichita State for the third of fourth position in the conference.

 

Updated Expectations: Probably not Elite 8, but the Golden Hurricanes should still make it to the second weekend of the tournament. We'll have to see how they do up against legitimate competition, though.

 

13. :floridastate: Florida State Seminoles

Preseason Poll: #13

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: #7

Preseason Expectation: NCAA Tournament - Elite 8, ACC Champion

 

This is, so far, about as bad a miss as it gets. The Seminoles are 1-7 on the season. Their sole win came against Boston College just this last game day, while their losses are against Jacksonville, Saint Joseph's, VCU, Florida, Ohio State, Pacific and Virginia Tech. Most of those are really good teams, but FSU just hasn't really been competitive. Sitting at 165th in the composite, the Seminoles are a dreadful 161st in KenPom, averaging only 60.88 PPG and allowing 70.25. Things can't get much worse.. but the ACC schedule is launching into full force now.

 

Updated Expectations: Florida State is going to be sitting at home in the post season. No NCAA, no NIT.

 

14. UMBC Retrievers

Preseason Poll: #14

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: Unranked

Preseason Expectation: Bubble Team

 

I'd like for the Retrievers to be better. But sitting at 2-6 it's been a real struggle for this team to even be relavant. Their only wins come over a struggling St. John's team and Arkansas. They've lost to Wisconsin, Purdue (I mean... no shame there), Missouri, Utah State, Maryland, and UConn. UMBC is sitting at 119th in KenPom and is in Quadrant 4, and with a tough American schedule coming up there's not a lot of room for hope.

 

Updated Expectations: UMBC isn't going to make the NCAA or NIT. That's less of a disappointment for a team expected to be on the bubble anyway, but still disappointing.

 

15. :missouri: Missouri Tigers

Preseason Poll: #15

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: #18

Preseason Expectation: NCAA Tournament - Sweet 16, SEC Champion

 

Missouri is really struggling this season. For a team picked to win the SEC, they're sitting at 3-5, and 103rd in KenPom. They're averaging just 61.13 PPG and allowing 63.25. There's no quality wins here, either, with their wins being against UMBC, Virginia Tech, and Fresno State. Meanwhile their losses come against Georgia State, Iowa State, UTSA, Oklahoma State, and Washington. This schedule should've been a walk for the Tigers, but they've looked thoroughly unimpressive. Meanwhile the SEC is looking a lot stronger than it did, even if it's not quite the teams we expected them to be.

 

Updated Expectations: If the SEC had been as weak as expected there might've been a chance for the Tigers to still make the NCAA. But with Georgia, Tennessee, LSU, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt all sitting in Quadrant 1 as we head into SEC play there's little expectation for the Tigers to be able to compete like they previously should have. No tournament for this season.

 

16. Army Black Knights

Preseason Poll: #16

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: #10

Preseason Expectation: NCAA Tournament - Sweet 16

 

Maybe we expected too much of Army. It's an amazing roster on paper, but hitting real competition? The Black Knights are 4-4, and are among the worst-rated teams in that 4-4, sitting in Quadrant 4 and 133rd in KenPom, averaging 64.25 PPG and allowing 68.00. Their wins include Indiana, UC Irvine, Maryland, and North Texas. On the other hand they got smoked by St. John's and lost to Kent State, Washington State, and Air Force. Record-wise the Black Knights are still okay, but as they head into the powerful American to play teams like Tulane, Houston, and East Carolina that negative point differential is going to rear its head and cause massive problems.

 

Updated Expectations: Army will also miss the tournament. Their record might be okay, but their performance will not be good enough.

 

17. :saintmary: Saint Mary's Gaels

Preseason Poll: #17

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: #24

Preseason Expectation: NCAA Tournament - Round of 32

 

The Gaels are probably the most successful preseason Top 25 team, currently. They're 5-3, but still in Quadrant 1 and sitting at 8th in KenPom, and are one of only two teams to be in every Top 25 Coaches Poll this season. They've beaten Indiana, St. Bonaventure, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, and SMU. They've lost to TCU, San Jose State, and Arizona State. So far the Gaels have looked impressive, and should continue to perform right about the same.

 

Updated Expectations: I'm keeping these the same. The WCC is going to be competitive. The Gaels have a chance to win it, of course, but San Diego is looking dominant so far, and Pacific is a sneaky good team as well that could play spoiler. But going into the tournament I think the Gaels will fold against tournament-level competition.

 

18. :jacksonville: Jacksonville Dolphins

Preseason Poll: #18

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: #13

Preseason Expectation: NCAA Tournament - Sweet 16

 

Jacksonville has also been very successful this season, and is very dangerous. Despite not appearing in the poll since the preseason, the Dolphins are 32nd in KenPom and 19th in the RPI. At 6-2 they have wins over Florida State, James Madison, South Florida, Florida Gulf Coast, Gonzaga, and St. John's. Their only losses come against South Dakota State and Washington State. The Dolphins are strong and formidable, and the currently best rated team in the C-USA. That's going to be difficult to change.

 

Updated Expectations: I'm not going to move off the Dolphins making it to the Sweet 16, though they have the potential to get to the Elite 8 probably. But I do expect the Dolphins to win the C-USA now.

 

19. :texasstate: Texas State Bobcats

Preseason Poll: #19

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: #15

Preseason Expectation: NCAA Tournament - Sweet 16

 

Texas State has been a quietly good team this season as well. They've not gotten as much attention as expected, partly due to not being as performative as other teams, but they are still 5-3 and performing well. They've beaten New Mexico, Pitt, Arizona, Vanderbilt, and North Texas. But they've fallen to Oklahoma, Cal, and Saint Louis. These are not bad losses, but there's been no statement win, either. At 73rd in KenPom they're simply a middle of the pack team. Given the weakness of the Sun Belt they'll still be competitive and likely find their way back into the Top 25, but not much else.

 

Updated Expectations: Texas State should contend for the Sun Belt, but there's plenty of competition - even if all of it is mediocre on the whole. Winning the Sun Belt will, of course, get them into the tournament. Without it they could be a bubble team.

 

19. :utahstate: Utah State Aggies

Preseason Poll: #19

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: #25

Preseason Expectation: NCAA Tournament - Round of 32

 

Utah State might be the most consistent team in the preseason Top 25. They're the only other team that has appeared in every Top 25 Coaches Poll since the preseason, getting as high as #8. This week they're back down to #18 and have posted a 6-2 record. With wins over Tulane, Maryland, Wisconsin, UMBC, Indiana and Kentucky the Aggies have looked fairly impressive and consistent. Their two losses come against Georgetown and Kansas, which... are not great. But there's not a ton of competition in the Mountain West, with Air Force looking like the most dangerous team right now, and Utah State not too far behind.

 

Updated Expectations: Utah State and Air Force are going to be the contenders for the Mountain West. At the moment I'd give the edge to Air Force, which puts Utah State in second, and they should post a good enough resume to get into the NCAA Tournament. They likely won't get into the second weekend still, however, so I'm keeping my prediction the same.

 

21. :michigianstate:Michigan State Spartans

Preseason Poll: #21

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: Unranked

Preseason Expectation: NCAA Tournament - Round of 32

 

Michigan State has looked atrocious. Currently 148th in KenPom, and 154th in the composite, the Spartans are 2-6. Those two wins come against Providence and Appalachian State. Their losses are against Gonzaga, Kentucky, Wake Forest, Davidson, George Washington, and LSU. All of these are decent teams, and most of those games have been very close. But the Spartans just can't close them out, and are averaging just 59.50 PPG. The Spartans are a bad mess, and the Big Ten is shaping up to be a dog fight in which the Spartans are just puppies.

 

Updated Expectations: Early home time for Michigan State, as once they get bounced early in the Big Ten tournament they'll have no prospects for the NCAA or NIT.

 

21. :tennessee: Tennessee Volunteers

Preseason Poll: #21

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: Unranked

Preseason Expectation: Misses NCAA Tournament

 

Okay. I'll admit I was wrong on this one, and in the opposite way as the others. Tennessee, by benefit of coaching, has performed very well so far. They're #28 in composite rankings, #47 in KenPom, and #17 in RPI. They haven't reappeared in the Top 25, despite being 6-2, but it feels like that's coming soon. The Volunteers have defeated the likes of South Dakota State, Wichita State, Baylor, Notre Dame, Boise State, and Seton Hall. There's some very good teams in there, and that's a six game winning streak after dropping their two opening week games against Xavier and Rice. The Volunteers are outplaying themselves. It could still come back to earth as they enter a difficult SEC, but they've been surprises so far with no indication that they won't continue to be.

 

Updated Expectations: Tennessee is looking like an NCAA Tournament team. If they're not firmly in (which I think they will be) they'll be a high bubble team.

 

23. :coastalcarolina: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Preseason Poll: #23

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: #14

Preseason Expectation: NCAA Tournament - Sweet 16

 

Coastal Carolina is still a formidable team, but some of the shine has worn off. At 4-4 they've defeated Tulsa, Western Kentucky, Arizona State, and Eastern Michigan. But they've also lost to Miami (OH), George Mason, Michigan, and UMass. For a few weeks the Chanticleers' 94-63 victory over WKU was the largest margin of victory and the most points scored by a team in a game. But they've been up and down ever since then and just looked simply average. They can still compete for the Sun Belt, which is very weak, but it's still going to be difficult if they can't find some consistency.

 

Updated Expectations: I'm not sure Coastal Carolina is going to make the NCAA Tournament. I think they'll do well enough to secure a middle seed in the NIT, but I'm still not sure how far I can see them going there. We need to see more from this team.

 

23. :ucla: UCLA Bruins

Preseason Poll: #23

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: Unranked

Preseason Expectation: Misses NCAA Tournament

 

UCLA made their way back into the Poll last week at #17, and this week has jumped up to #11. The 7-1 Bruins have lost only to Santa Clara, and beaten Troy, George Washington, Kentucky, Eastern Michigan, Florida, Creighton, and Cal. And despite being wrong about their outcome, and despite being #17 in KenPom, I was right about one thing: It's not been terrible fun to watch. The Bruins are scoring only 61.75 PPG, but have been absolutely dominant on defense, with the #1 defensive squad only allowing 56.75 PPG. That's quite crazy, even if very boring.

 

Updated Expectations: Aside from Washington State, there's not many teams in the Pac-12 scoring much more than what the Bruins are allowing. If they can continue this defense they should finish behind the Cougars for the Pac-12 and be firmly in the NCAA Tournament with a decent seed, allowing them to win 1-2 tournament games before they play real competition.

 

25. Arizona Wildcats

Preseason Poll: #25

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: Unranked

Preseason Expectation: NCAA Tournament - Round of 64

 

Arizona has not impressed in the slightest. The 3-5 Wildcats are averaging about the same points and points allowed at just over 62 per game, and ranked 97th in KenPom. Their only wins come against George Mason, Fresno State, and Texas Tech. In the meantime they've lost to San Diego, Navy, Georgia Southern, Texas State, and Central Michigan. 'Good' losses, certainly, but not for a team with tournament aspirations... which are quickly drying up.

 

Updated Expectations: While the Pac-12 certainly isn't... packed... Arizona doesn't seem to have a place in it. They will have trouble making the NIT, and will likely miss it.

 

25. Bowling Green Falcons

Preseason Poll: #25

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: Unranked

Preseason Expectation: NCAA Tournament - Round of 32, MAC Champion

 

Bowling Green has performed about as expected, but hasn't quite gotten the respect of the voters that they should have. The Falcons have missed the poll only in Week 2, despite posting a 7-1 record. Their only loss comes against Cincinnati. Meanwhile they've beaten UC Irvine, Nebraska, St. John's, Butler, Ohio State, and opened up MAC play with wins over Kent State and Buffalo. The Falcons are a good team, #5 in KenPom and averaging 74.63 PPG. With the rest of the MAC looking mediorce-to-decent, the conference should belong to Bowling Green and Central Michigan.

 

Updated Expectations: No update. I still expect the Falcons to win the MAC, get into the tournament, and lose in the Round of 32. But I also wouldn't be surprised if they made it to the Sweet 16.

 

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Honorable Mentions

 

:georgia: Georgia Bulldogs

Preseason Poll: Unranked

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: Unranked

Preseason Expectation: Bubble Team

 

The Bulldogs have looked absolutely dominant in the Out of Conference schedule. Georgia opened the season with demolishing wins over Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech to jump into the Week 1 poll at #5. Two more blowouts against Clemson and Georgia State earned the Bulldogs the #1 ranking in the country. A close loss to UCF, and a tight win over Charlotte saw the Dawgs slip to #3, and this week loss to West Virginia and win over Evansville dropped them to #5. But no question, Georgia is still playing like a Top 10 team in the country. They open up SEC play against Kentucky next week and will be interesting to see how they perform, but some slippage will be expected with how competitive the conference is shaping up to be.

 

Updated Expectations: Georgia should and will be in the NCAA tournament. They will also contend for the SEC title, but that's going to be a packed battle.

 

Central Michigan Chippewas

Preseason Poll: Unranked

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: Unranked

Preseason Expectation: Misses NCAA Tournament

 

No one had faith in the Chippewas. Well joke's on them. Central Michigan has muscled their way into #3 in KenPom, #7 in RPI, and the #2 ranking in the country. At 7-1 their only loss comes against Ball State. While that's concerning to open up MAC play, they've still beaten Louisiana Tech, Pitt, Utah, UTEP, UAB, Arizona, and UCF. This is an electric offense with a great defense, and will continue to be dominant through the conference. Their biggest challenge will be Bowling Green, who's looking just as good and they will pummel each other.

 

Updated Expectations: The Chippewas should make the tournament with decent seeding after beating up a weak MAC. They'll probably still lose the conference to Bowling Green, but don't be surprised at all if they win either.

 

:washingtonstate: Washington State Cougars

Preseason Poll: Others Receiving Votes (14)

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: Unranked

Preseason Expectation: Misses NCAA Tournament

 

Wow. The Cougars were projected to be one of the worst teams in the conference. Someone saw something, though, and they have answered by going 7-1, 9th in KenPom and 1st in RPI. The Cougars are lighting it up, scoring 74.13 PPG and allowing just 63.50. Their only loss comes against West Virginia, but along the way they've beaten Seattle, Portland, Baylor, Jacksonville, St. John's, Army, and Arizona State. The Cougars are a force and should be feared.

 

Updated Expectations: I mean obviously the Cougars are going to the tournament. I even expect them to win the Pac-12, unless UCLA does even better. Washington State has the capability to be a Sweet 16 or Elite 8 team.

 

:purdue: Purdue Boilermakers

Preseason Poll: Others Receiving Votes (11)

Preseason sSEC Weekly Ranking: Unranked

Preseason Expectation: NCAA Tournament

 

There has not been a single team look more dominant this season than Purdue. The Boilermakers hold not just the record for most points scored in a game this season, but they also hold second place. #1 Composite, #1 KenPom, and #2 RPI, Purdue is averaging an insane 93.0 PPG. If they look weak anywhere it's on defense, where they allow 75.75 PPG, but who needs defense with that offense? Purdue is the sole remaining unbeaten team in the country, with wins over Kansas, UMBC, Xavier, Georgetown, Clemson, Tulane, Marquette, and Penn State. All those accolades said, it's also fair to say Purdue simply hasn't played anyone yet. So what will happen when they do? Well they'll likely still do just as well. A few losses, to be sure, but the Boilermakers are the real deal.

 

Updated Expectations: Right now Purdue is playing like a Final Four team. Possibly even a National Championship contender. If they can keep up the pace they'll be in the last weekend this season, for sure.

[Migi]

"Updated Expectations: I'm keeping these the same. The WCC is going to be competitive. The Gaels have a chance to win it, of course, but San Diego is looking dominant so far, and Pacific is a sneaky good team as well that could play spoiler. But going into the tournament I think the Gaels will fold against tournament-level competition."