way, way too early 2023 preseason rankings pt. 2

[tsweezy]

The rest of the top-25 preliminary guesses (top 10 here)

Note: this is looking at current rostered players before progressions and ignoring the 2022 recruiting class. Blue chips = number of 4 and 5 stars rostered.

Projected A and B overalls is my proprietary formula for estimated player overalls + my expected progressions over the offseason. It is conservative so you will probably see more A and Bs than I listed, but it's an Ok ballpark at this point.

Ranking for those is in parentheses.

 

25 - Missouri

:missouri:

Blue Chips: 18 (8th)

Projected A overalls: 4 (46th)

Projected A & B overalls: 37 (20th)

 

Missouri had an up and down, disappointing last season as a win against Tennessee would've won them the East. Aaron Leamon and their all-american DT from last year are gone and they will have to undergo a dramatic identity shift. They have enough roster talent to merit a 25th ranking, but I have a suspicion that unless a new coach comes on they'll slide a bit further this season.

 

 

24 - Baylor

Blue Chips: 15 (19th)

Projected A overalls: 5 (27th)

Projected A & B overalls: 36 (27th)

 

Back-to-back Big 12 champs is certainly a huge accomplishment. Talent-wise though this squad is outmatched by others in the conference and it will take another heroic coaching job by Vivid to get them back to the title game especially with TCU out for revenge. They have a lot of young stars cooking, but they most need Travis Knebel to develop as a passer after being benched at the end of last season.

 

23 - Oklahoma

:oklahoma:

Blue Chips: 12 (41st)

Projected A overalls: 5 (27th)

Projected A & B overalls: 37 (20th)

 

They had one of the best genned rosters, but it was top-heavy, mostly graduated, and have had some bad recruiting classes. There's still a lot to work with but it's a bit ungainly to work with and new coach will have to shape it how he wants it to be competitive in this conference.

 

22 - UNLV

:unlv:

Blue Chips: 20 (5th)

Projected A overalls: 4 (46th)

Projected A & B overalls: 37 (20th)

 

UNLV has been recruiting like gangbusters, especially on OL, but it just takes time for them to gell and make a playoff push. Give this team and OL another year or two and it'll be a massive battle with SDSU every year where potentially both could make the playoffs.

 

21 - UCLA

:ucla:

Blue Chips: 15 (19th)

Projected A overalls: 5 (27th)

Projected A & B overalls: 33 (35th)

 

Hiram Maronde + jmjacobs? Does anything else need to be written to make you scared? This team made it to the playoff semifinals this year and fought Alabama hard. Their roster top-to-bottom might not look as good as some of the teams above them, but would you bet against the aforementioned offensive stars plus 5-stars at TE, OLB, and FS? I sure wouldn't

 

 

20 - LSU

:lsu:

Blue Chips: 22 (3rd)

Projected A overalls: 6 (19th)

Projected A & B overalls: 38 (18th)

 

Frankly this team has a lot of really, really good pieces and should probably be ranked higher than this. They play in an ubercompetitive division/conference though so even with this they'll have issues out-talenting teams en route to a division title. They definitely have a strong defensive identity, and RS SO QB Ramik Harris looks like the guy who can pull off a potential double digit win season if everything clicks

 

 

19 - Wake Forest

:wakeforest:

Blue Chips: 13 (34th)

Projected A overalls: 7 (9th)

Projected A & B overalls: 36 (27th)

 

Senior 5-star Jorge Jacobs sets the tone for this team at center. Especially considering the OGs next to him are just abysmal he'll need to do a lot of heavy lifting to keep this offense on track. Ryan Pederson is likely an A overall receiving back and both Dennis and AJ are speed backs who aren't far behind in overall. 5-star A overall Jose Jones is a clinical route runner, but they desperately need senior Delon kanter to make a big jump at QB for to prevent this offense from being dysfunctional. On defense, they have a great top-10 players but are paper thin beyond that. Just like on offense, at the center of it is a 5-star: Run stopping ILB Kenny Daniel. If Kenny and Jorge can lift their respective units, Wake could make some serious noise, but they really need a good coach

 

18 - Kansas

:ku1912:

Blue Chips: 12 (41st)

Projected A overalls: 7 (9th)

Projected A & B overalls: 37 (20th)

 

The defense overall is scary, which it needs to be to be competitive in the large dozen, but the linebackers offer up a soft middle to attack for opposing offenses. On offense, Kansas definitely appears to be eschewing tradition. Their QBs are all scramblers, and they have a very good speed back in Cody Casspi. The highlight though are the TEs. Senior Alex Atkins might be the best TE in America, and last year they signed a pair of top-5 TE prospects as well. You have to think they run constant jumbo packages with some novel run concepts and the constant threat of hitting the TEs. Honestly a good "zig where others zag" strat that could pay off (or combust, we'll see)

 

17 - Washington

:washington:

Blue Chips: 13 (34th)

Projected A overalls: 7 (9th)

Projected A & B overalls: 38 (18th)

 

The DL is the highlight here, with the rest of the defense being a big mediocre. All over actually this team is just solidly above average but I'm having trouble finding a whole lot to be excited by. They'll be a competent squad and win a bunch of games, but I don't know that I see anything truly special that will lift them to a PAC title.

 

16 - North Carolina

:northcarolina:

Blue Chips: 15 (19th)

Projected A overalls: 6 (19th)

Projected A & B overalls: 40 (9th)

 

Junior 5-star speed rusher Jalen Jones is probably one of the best players in America already, and the Tar Heels will need him to get to the QB early and often because they are not phenomenal in coverage. The front 7 are very, very stout though. On offense they have a ton of B overall options at WR, although I'm not sure any will hit A overall. at RB Nick Pounders will be a senior 4-star who was already an A overall last year. And of course they have 5-star sophomore Tavarres Washington who was the #2 QB prospect last year and should improve on a fairly mid freshman campaign. Honestly looking at this team on paper they are very strong and should be contending with Florida State for the ACC this year.

 

 

15 - Arkansas

Blue Chips: 16 (14th)

Projected A overalls: 6 (19th)

Projected A & B overalls: 42 (5th)

 

The SEC west on paper is a ferocious division. Arkansas is one of the most talented team in the country and they might not even be top-3 in their division. Their top-3 CBs are good enough to clamp any opposing WRs, and Jaylon Atchison is a mammoth at DT. They are pretty young through the rest of their defense but it looks schematically quite sound. Their offense is in the high end in terms of talent, but it's all distributed and tough to find a game breaker anywhere. Hopefully Field General Chris Diaz will be able to pull it all together for the Razorbacks this year.

 

 

14 - Texas A&M

:texasa&m:

Blue Chips: 19 (6th)

Projected A overalls: 6 (19th)

Projected A & B overalls: 40 (9th)

 

TAMU has had fantastic recruiting, but the team overall is quite young. They do have 5-star Mitch Forrest at CB, but the rest of the defense is honestly pretty average if not downright bad in some areas. The offensive skill positions host a ton of this teams talent. A quartet of B overall 4 star options before progressions is quite intimidating, as is senior 4-star Reyes Thomas at RB. Jordan Peterson is one of only 4 5-star QB upperclassmen, and the scrambler is going to have to pull things together and lead a high powered attack because they'll be in a lot of track meets.

 

 

13 - Oklahoma State

:oklahomastate:

Blue Chips: 19 (6th)

Projected A overalls: 7 (9th)

Projected A & B overalls: 40 (9th)

 

5-star DE Whit Wilson and 5-star DT Caleb Reiter are going to anchor one of the Big 12s best DLs. Frankly aside from FS, this defense could be one of the top-5 in the country. The OL is a little bit average though, and there are no standout pass catchers. RB Jerry Davis could make the leap to A or near-A overall and then it will be seen if they roll with senior scrambler Matthias Reed or shift to RS SO Pocket 4-star Dewayne Dimick. Very good shot for the cowboys to contend for the conference this year.

 

 

12 - Tennessee

:tennessee:

Blue Chips: 26 (1st)

Projected A overalls: 7 (9th)

Projected A & B overalls: 49 (1st)

Yeah I'm not gonna say much here. Tons of freshman / sophomore talent but it's not quite developed and seasoned enough to make another playoff run. Brandon Savage will be a difficult out in any game though.

 

11 - Michigan State

:michigianstate:

Blue Chips: 11 (51st)

Projected A overalls: 9 (2nd)

Projected A & B overalls: 41 (7th)

 

"But Tsweezy, Wayne Murray is gone now!". Yeah I know, shut up. These obviously are not considering positional value yet.

Anyways, Michigan State has been an AI team and doesn't have the freshman/sophomore blue chips on roster, but they still have a ton of upperclassmen guys with high overalls. While their QB is in flux, Pedro Mazzaro should be one of the best WRs in the B1G, and TE Dylan Palmer will be a weapon as well. They have pretty good RB by committee going as well. They're going to have a pretty dominant DL, and some really good ball hawking CBs, so be on the lookout for them to lead the conference in INTs next season as well.

Edited November 29, 2022 by tsweezy

[TuscanSota]

?

[Vivid]

Disagree

[tsweezy]

With what