Way, way too early 2023 preseason rankings

[tsweezy]

First batch of rankings coming up trying to predict how 2023 will look ?

Note: this is looking at current rostered players before progressions and ignoring the 2022 recruiting class. Blue chips = number of 4 and 5 stars rostered.

Projected A and B overalls is my proprietary formula for estimated player overalls + my expected progressions over the offseason. It is conservative so you will probably see more A and Bs than I listed, but it's an Ok ballpark at this point.

Ranking for those is in parentheses.

 

 

10 - Oregon State

:oregonstate:

Blue Chips: 12 (41st)

Projected A overalls: 8 (6th)

Projected A & B overalls: 40 (9th)

 

A bit under the radar (to me), Oregon State is probably a surprise inclusion in this ranking. However, their OL looks quite good, and they have some skill players who are going to burst onto the scene. Pocket QB Brooks Burke is a 3-star going into his senior year, but with A+ potential I have him tabbed to be a "surprise" A overall guy who will be near the top of the PAC. similarly at RB they have another Receiving RB 3-star with A+ potential. At WR there is a returning A overall possession WR, and a bunch of red zone threats. This definitely has the look of a team that was built to grow and have a shining moment when these talents are all upperclassmen (now) Until they get a coach though, the PAC-12 After Dark is unpredictable and hard to preview for me.

On defense they are absolutely loaded with high potential upperclassmen and I think they will surprise a lot of people with how strong that starting lineup is. Really, out of the entire defense the only weak spot is SS where their best option is a senior 2 star B- potential, and the strong spot is the senior 5-star balanced DE Vince Gresham who is going to be almost unstoppable.

Overall this is a really intriguing team to follow. I'm hoping someone will take them over and use all these veteran starters to their true potential because they absolutely should be threatening for a PAC championship and playoff bid.

 

 

9 - Wisconsin

:wisconsin:

Blue Chips: 13 (34th)

Projected A overalls: 9 (2nd)

Projected A & B overalls: 42 (5th)

 

Wisconsin may not have the blue chips, but their players have developed very, very well. As you might expect, this teams strengths lie in the interior trenches with a dominant 5-star OG and 5-star DT plugging the middle. Their OTs and DEs are also going to be quite good as this team has clearly bought into the idea that winning the trenches = winning games. Defensively they back that up with really good coverage options, although the back-7 is probably a bit susceptible to the run (if you get past the DL that is). On offense they don't look to have a ton of necessary break-out stars, but have a whole lot of very good options at WR and RB. The point man is QB Lance Enright, a SR balanced 4-star (B overall, B potential right now) from Middletown NJ. With B TP/TA, if he steps those up this offseason, this team will be an extremely tough out and should be slightly favored over Illinois and Purdue to win the division.

 

 

8 - Texas State

:texasstate:

Blue Chips: 16 (14th)

Projected A overalls: 8 (6th)

Projected A & B overalls: 39 (13th)

 

At this point what can you say, they're the winningest program in sim history. Ryan Johnson led them to a deep run in 2021 en route to becoming a heisman finalist and 1st round draft pick. This year DeShields was the heisman runner-up / going to be 1st rounder and TXST had a #1 playoff seed before a shocking loss to Tennessee. Who's turn is it to take over for the bobcats and actually bring them to the mountaintop? Frankly, they're going to be switching it up stylistically. The biggest name will actually be on defense in 5-stars ILB Kaleb Cavanaugh and CB Malcolm Williams. Both will be sophomores and while you don't often see 2nd year players leading teams to natties, having both of them on defense surrounded by a ton of additional talent means that this team will allow very few points all year. Frankly, there's a (slim) chance to have 9 defensive starters with an A overall grade which is nuts. Offensively though, Ryan and Justin are irreplaceable. The best players will be TE Hakeem Judd a returning A overall, and WR Sean Plutko (ditto). Unfortunately they have some big holes in the interior OL, and their RB position is charitably described as serviceable. At QB, the guy in charge of getting the ball to the pass-catchers ASAP will be Devin Holtz, a scrambler RS sophomore 4-star out of Alabama. Make sure to know his name for when he leads the bobcats to 3x more Sunbelt titles before likely going in the 1st or 2nd rounds of the draft himself.

 

 

 

 

7 - Bowling Green

Blue Chips: 23 (2nd)

Projected A overalls: 7 (9th)

Projected A & B overalls: 39 (13th)

 

BGSU had a great run en route to a MAC championship and playoff appearance in 2022, and are still poised to repeat this year. They do have a completely different roster style than the top-5 teams, as they have a ton of depth compared to relatively less upper-end star power. Last years top-3 recruiting class will be sophomores and provide one of the strongest backup squads in the country. For their starters though, a lot is going to rest on Travis Kingery's progression. The 4 star balanced QB will be entering his 3rd year in the program, and with A- potential the expectation is that he will be an A overall player. In addition, Ryan Cabinda is another 4 star who will be entering his 4th year and could also get that A overall with progressions. Jordan Suter is the #1 WR for the falcons and quite capable, although below him is a bit underwhelming or young. Similarly, the offensive line has a lot of talent, it's just almost all going to be either 2nd year 4 stars, or older 2/3 stars and isn't quite seasoned enough to blow teams off the ball. Defensively, Donald Dingus can play on an island and is a threat to pick off anything thrown to his side of the field. Aside from Dingus though, the rest of the defense is chock full of good-but-not-elite players. Depth-wise they will be very strong though.

 

In the end I think BGSU's prospects rest on how ready their sophomores will be to contribute and how big a deal fatigue and injuries will be. I think they should outright win just about all their games, but not quite sure they have the upper end players to make a deep playoff run yet. Next year and going forward though... watch out

 

 

6 - Tulsa

:tulsa:

Blue chips: 15 (19th)

Projected A overalls: 7 (9th)

Projected A & B overalls: 43 (4th)

 

The inaugural 2021 national champions, Tulsa had a thorough rebuilding year in 2022. However, the roster now looks shaped to make a run at another AAC championship and playoff berth. Starting with the OL they have a chance to have 5 players with A overalls here (although some of them may be borderline and wind up slightly under the A cutoff). So that will pave the way for the offense in just about every game. Identity-wise, RS SO Tony Sherman is a 5-star A overall prospect who will be the #1 target, backed up by a pair of absolute burner speed guys. At running back I could see any of Nesbitt, Van Noy, or Jernigan emerging as their A overall leader, but since they all have different archetypes it will likely be by committee and adjusted to opponent. At QB, Maurquice Ekuale is going to be entering his RS SR year, and the field general at this point probably has every defense in the conference memorized. Now he just needs to get the ball to Tony, or hand it off and let that OL get to work.

Defensively, Tulsa is vulnerable, and their strategy is going to have to be "get to the QB ASAP". They have a phenomenal pair of DE edge rushers, and OLB pass rushers so they certainly have those weapons. However their ILBs are nothing to write home about, and their CBs can be beaten. They do have 4-star A overall, B potential Joe Harris at FS to help clean up any messes though, so I certainly wouldn't call them a weak defensive team.

Overall they might not look as strong as the top-5 teams, but this squad should be favored in just about every game they play.

 

5 - TCU

:tcu:

Blue chips: 13 (34th)

Projected A overalls: 8 (6th)

Projected A & B overalls: 37 (20th)

 

TCU is a really interesting squad to project for next year. They had I think 13 A overalls this season which led the country, and they were looking easily playoff-bound before a rough closing stretch dropping the Big 12 CCG and a shocker to Hawaii. This year I'm not sure if they have 13 A overalls, but their roster comp is really fun.

On offense it's the Solano - Colon show. They scored a ton of points this year and Solano will only be better for his swan song senior year. Colon meanwhile was a five-star walking in and will only be a junior next year! Either way, this is an A+ hookup connection and you can probably count on your hands the number of corners nationwide who can stop them. When you look at the rest of the offense it's a slight step down but still very potent. They have a pair of 4 star backs who could jump to A overall and offer a running option. The TE room is very weak, and honestly behind Colon the rest of the WRs are nothing to write home about either. The OL is very, very good and more importantly is full of pass blockers to further boost the aerial attack. Honestly it looks pretty unstoppable unless you have a top-5 CB and put an extra defender on Colon, then maybe they'll be out of sorts enough to not know where to turn.

Defensively they have an absolute monster pair of DEs who are going to have their way with any opposing OL. In addition, 5 star B+ potential Run stopper Travis Cravens is at ILB meaning that this front 7 will be one of the best in the nation at stopping the run. They do have some weaknesses to the pass though. Their corners are pretty average, the OLBs nothing special, and the safeties might even be below average.

Looking at it overall, TCU is built to run (and win) a bunch of track meets. I think they will get scored on plenty, but they will likely have the #1 scoring offense in the country. Still, it only takes one off night for Solano and Colon to derail the natty ambitions, but they will absolutely be in that conversation

 

 

 

4 - Central Michigan

Blue chips: 12 (41st)

Projected A overalls: 10 (1st)

Projected A & B overalls: 41 (7th)

 

At a general talent level, CMU is near the top of the country. Spending 2 years without a coach or recruiting is going to start to catch up with them, but the generated roster is really, really good. This year they were part of the 3 MAC teams who made the playoff, and next year they should once again be right in that conversation with WMU and BGSU. Looking at the defense, it is incredibly salty with A and B overalls all over the place. In particular, their CBs and DEs will be very good and it will be quite a challenge to pass on them (and without Scribner in the conference I don't see anyone who likely will). Highlight player on this side is Man coverage Jr Ryan Herget who is a B- potential 5 star who was an A overall already last year. He should absolutely clamp every team's WR1 and will still have another year after this one. However, like most AI teams, it remains to be seen what they do on offense. They have great WRs, a good line, just above average RBs, and then QB Brandon Alexander will tie it all together. A balanced QB, Brandon is going to be a Sr 4-star likely low-A overall.

While I think that a coach who knows how to gameplan for this team could bring them a playoff semi-final bid and MAC championship, if they are AI for another year it's a total gamble and they could underperform.

 

Also noting that a CMU - TCU game would be one of the most interesting elite matchups there is.

 

 

3 - Kentucky

:kentucky:

Blue Chips: 22 (3rd)

Projected A overalls: 9 (2nd)

Projected A & B overalls: 45 (2nd)

 

Once again, Kentucky will be one of the most talented teams in the nation. However they had a lot of talent this year as well and just could not mold it into a cohesive team as a disappointing season ended without a bowl bid.

The WR room is great, one of the top-3 in the country imo, with Logan Njoku as the star there. The offensive line will be really good, if not elite, but on offense (and frankly Kentucky's entire season), it all relies on QB Michael Oliveros and RB Kelvin Dupree stepping up. They have the recruiting bonafides as they were both 5 star prospects and are returning A overalls who will be even better this year, but something just wasn't clicking for them. However, I'm betting that after a full off-season, ezaco puts together a gameplan that can highlight the Oliveros-Dupree-Njoku three-headed monster and ride it to at least a playoff semifinal if not championship.

Defense is less exciting to write about. It's deep, it's good, they don't have many holes. Main guy on that side of the ball is run stopping OLB Tanner McCarthy, who will be a senior 5-star A overall with a mean streak. I don't think they will be one of the best Ds in the nation, but with the aforementioned 3-heads on offense they won't have to be.

 

 

2 - Alabama

Blue chips: 13 (34th)

Projected A overalls: 7 (9th)

Projected A & B overalls: 37 (20th)

 

Your defending national champs. Alabama missed a recruiting cycle last year which makes their talent rankings appear not quite as gaudy, but make no mistake. The upperclassmen on this roster are as good or better than any other team in the nation. Some highlights:

C Ruben Shazier: Senior 5-star, A overall, A+ potential. This man will be in the mix for the highest recorded overall in college history, just an absolute stud at everything he does.

CB Dashaun Ceciliani: Senior 5-star A overall man coverage corner. He had an A in every attribute except catching, tackling, and strength as a junior and is only getting better this off-season.

WR Paul Canha: Senior 5-star A overall, B+ potential. This speed archetype player may be the fastest man in the country. While he may not be the most physical, he still has B strength, B route running, and B run blocking and you know he's only going to get better

DE Nick Concepcion: Senior 4-star A overall, A potential speed rusher. Another guy who is just a phenom at everything he does and once again will be one of the best in the country at his position this upcoming season.

 

Anyways, besides just looking at their stars, the OL will be nigh-impregnable, the WR corps is the best in the country, and their pass defense will be next-level. However, this team does have some weaknesses. Cam Mills got a lot of run this year spelling Chris Williams but he just is not as good and even with another progression will still be unlikely to take over as one of the best backs in the country. Meanwhile the QB room is a big question mark. Are they going to start one of their senior scramblers, or junior Jordan Lyles, a former 4-star balanced player? We haven't seen anything from any of them so it's plausible that it isn't an instant sync on offense.

Meanwhile on defense they are just thin. Their starting 11 might be one of the best in the country but there is an extremely large drop-off behind them. I mean, at SS they have 1 player (before new recruits come in). If injuries hit then they could crumble.

 

Overall, Alabama's season will be heavily dependent on how many minutes they can get out of their future first rounders and how quickly they can gel as a full team, but after winning this year I wouldn't bet against them.

 

 

1 - Florida State

:floridastate:

Blue chips: 17 (9th)

Projected A overalls: 9 (2nd)

Projected A & B overalls: 45 (2nd)

 

Florida State is going to be loaded next year and looking for a return trip to the natty. On offense Kelly Jarwin will be in his 3rd year and hopefully take the next step. Luckily we won't need to shoulder the load himself as 5-star A overall RB Clayton McGee looks to be the feature of this offense. They have a deep pool of WRs and while the offensive line won't have any superstars, it'll be full of senior high B / low A players and will definitely not be a weakness. Good luck stopping them

On defense they are going to have some nasty edge rushers, a bunch of lock-down corners, and some phenom safeties. The only real weakness here is they are a bit thin at LB and DT, but given how good their offense is, running up the middle is unlikely to score enough points to keep up.

"Oh", you say, "maybe their special teams is bad?" no. They have a 5-star A overall senior kicker and a senior punter as well. They *knock on wood* won't be missing any clutch kicks this year.

 

This team isn't necessarily a murder-ball, god squad, but they are extremely good at all levels and are one of the early favorites for a deep playoff run.

[Vivid]

Ctrl+F “Ayblor”

[Ezaco]

UK is on this list?

 

Sir, please hand over your credentials.

[Kirby]

Noles comeback SZN

[tsweezy]

If Oliveros gets his head out of his ass I’ll look prescient

[Ezaco]

This answer is acceptable.

[acewulf]

Good writeup. I wouldn't put us at top 10 at the moment, but I feel good about this year in general.

 

Ekuale should shape up to be more consistent, WRs should be stronger this year, and the OL will be good again.

 

Biggest questions are who steps up at RB, and the defense as a whole (although the pass rush should be hella fun to watch)

 

Here's to a bounce back year!