2022 [2022] MAC Arizona Bowl Preview

[Jieret]

 

vs. :newmexico:

 

 

In the first of at least six postseason games involving MAC teams, we have the 6-6 Ball State Cardinals taking on the 8-5 New Mexico Lobos in the Tuscon desert air. How do they match up?

 

Junior Garett Cordier made Second Team All-MAC with his 1272 yards and 7 rushing TDs. If that wasn't enough, Cordier was also the Cardinals' leading receiver in catches (73), targets (93), receiving yards (811), and receiving TDs (5). He is averaging over 30 "looks" per game (carries plus receiving targets) and is basically Ball State's entire offense at this point. Coach klemm pushed Cordier hard to get the Cardinals to Bowl Season; does the star RB have one more big game left in him or did the late-season grind wear him down?

 

Redshirt freshman Scott Romero took all the lumps and teachable moments you'd expect a freshman to take, but showed enough to make one think he'll be a 4-year starter in Muncie. His lack of big stats (271 of 427 for 2970 yards, 13 TDs/10 INTs, 127.26 QBR) was a function of a conservative offense trying to limit mistakes, so don't expect a lot of downfield shots coming from the Cardinals.

(This is not a knock on the offense, by the way. When your best weapon is a dual-threat RB and you're starting a freshman QB, it's a reasonable scheme to run.)

 

Ball State's best non-RB pass catcher is senior Isaac Beachy, a sleeper NFL prospect in our opinion. But his stats won't show it (57 catches for 664 yards, 11.65 YPC, 3 TDs), and junior Fletcher Wood had the better year number-wise (55 catches for 728 yards, 13.24 YPC, 4 TDs).

 

When Ball State has the ball, this is going to be a fascinating matchup between a conservative offense that wants to Let Garrett Cook and a New Mexico defense that will regularly put eight men in the box.

The Lobos are confident in doing that because their starting cornerbacks are as good a duo as any you'll find in the country. Curtis Velez led the team with five interceptions while Trey Hoomanawanui chipped in with a pair of his own. Add in four from free safety Nick Santos, and it's easy to see why New Mexico was third in the country with 24 interceptions. They have an aggressive secondary that loves to fight for every pass in their direction, and this lets them focus on shutting the run down to great effect. The Lobos only surrendered 1247 rushing yards, good for seventh-best in the country.

 

~~~

 

What about when New Mexico has the ball? Senior Daurice Maile is a solid quarterback (305 of 498 for 3552 yards, 23 TDs/11 INTs, 131.98 QBR) who will take what the defense gives him. He will stretch the defense without truly bombing the ball deep - even though he has the arm for that. Fellow senior Jake Ramczyk is his main target, catching 75 balls for 980 yards and 5 TDs, but Maile will spread the ball fairly evenly among his top two WRs (Ramczyk, Dean Leary) and TE Tyler Turner.

The Lobos do a good job of keeping Maile upright, only surrendering 15 sacks on the season. Part of that is on a good OL led by sophomore LT Rodney Ladler, who we would assume would be First Team All-MWC... IF they'd ever release those honors. *Ahem*

Part of that is also on an effective running game headlined by bruising RB Jerick McGrath and his 1258 rushing yards keeping things honest.

While we don't normally mention the change of pace backs much in these previews, redshirt freshman Ken Flagel makes the cut here because despite having roughly a third of McGrath's carries and a quarter of the yardage he actually has more rushing TDs than McGrath does, seven to five. Vulturing at its finest, everyone.

So what does Ball State have to do on defense? Keep everything in front of them and force some fumbles. The Cardinals are an above-average defense where the only player who stands out is OLB/EDGE Zack Collins and his 7.5 sacks. But again, this is not a bad thing. Ball State only gives up 344.25 yards a game (their 4131 yards surrendered is 11th-best in the country), and they're equally adept at limiting the run and the pass.

If there is one thing the Ball State defense DOES stand out in, it's causing and recovering fumbles. They've recovered 12, tied for most in the nation. The Cardinals see every tackle as a fumble opportunity, swarming to the ball carrier and letting the second and third man work on stripping the football. If the Cardinal defense is clicking on all cylinders, expect the Lobo offense to move slowly down the field working hard on third down. And expect some of those UNM drives to end in a dogpile and the ref pointing the other way.

 

The Pick:

We would love to be complete homers and say that Ball State will pull this out. But the Lobos are a tough draw for an offense that is very one-dimensional, especially when that one dimension is Garret Cordier. Expect the UNM front eight to key on him and dare Romero to beat them deep where Velez and Hoomanawanui lurk.

 

Ball State's best chances to win will come through their defense's ability to create short fields through turnovers, but Daurice Maile and the Lobos offense is hard to rattle and we personally can't expect recovering fumbles to be a highly repeatable skill.

 

New Mexico 27

Ball State 13

[npklemm]

What would you say if I changed up my gameplan to be more pass heavy?

[Jieret]

I could see lots of swing passes and TE play action having some success, but Romero hasn't shown the ability IMO to challenge Velez, Hoomanawanui, and Santos. No one likes the idea of "dinking and dunking" their way down the field, but I think that's the best way for your passing game to have success against the Lobo defense. I'm not even sure you could bust out a deep PA concept more than once or twice, even as aggressive as they are.

[Vivid]

Wow pretty good prediction here!