SimNFL Playoff Race - Week 17

[Piercewise1]

Scenario Maker link

here

 

 

 

Team	Record	Week 17	Week 18	Opp Win %
Denver	15-0	KCY	@LAC	.467
Jacksonville	13-2	@LAC	HOU	.400
Cincinnati	12-3	CHI	@CLE	.500
New England	9-6	NYG	@BUF	.533
Tennessee (+1)	10-5	@PIT	IND	.267
Cleveland (-1)	9-5-1	@NOL	CIN	.650
LA Chargers	9-6	JAX	DEN	.933
Las Vegas	8-7	@SEA	KCY	.250
Buffalo	8-7	DAL	NE	.567

Opp Win % refers to upcoming opponents only

 

The Broncos (AFC West champs) have the H2H tiebreaker, so they have clinched the #1 seed and a 1st round bye.

 

The Jaguars (AFC South champs) can clinch the #2 seed with a win AND a Bengals loss.

 

The Bengals (AFC North champs) can finish no lower than #3, but don't control their own destiny for anything higher.

 

The Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win OR a Bills loss; if they and Buffalo finish with the same record, they have the tiebreaker on common opponents.

 

The Titans can clinch a wild card with a win/tie OR BOTH a Raiders loss/tie AND a Bills loss/tie. Their tiebreakers aren't great, but at 11 wins they won't need them.

 

The Browns can clinch a wild card with a win; they are 1.5 games ahead of 8th place with 2 games to go.

 

The Chargers can clinch a wild card with a win; they have common opponents tiebreaker over the Raiders and conference record over the Bills, and the Patriots win the division at 10 wins. But look at those last two opponents.

 

The Raiders need two wins and at least one of the teams above them (Titans/Browns/Chargers) to lose out. At least the first part doesn't look too bad.

 

The Bills need two wins and an additional Patriots loss to claim the division. They would still be in range of the wild card at 10-7, but at minimum need 2 Chargers losses AND EITHER a Raiders loss OR 2 Titans losses OR 2 Browns losses.

 

The Steelers have been eliminated. With 6 conference losses, they can't get past the Chargers on tiebreakers. The Raiders can't help, because division tiebreakers take priority and a 9-win Chargers team beats a 9-win Raiders team on common opponents.

 

The Dolphins have been eliminated. With a H2H loss they can't get past the Chargers either.

 

 

 

 

Team	Record	Week 17	Week 18	Opp Win %
Arizona (+1)	14-1	TBY	@LAR	.733
Washington (-1)	14-1	@MIA	@DAL	.500
Tampa Bay	11-4	@ARI	CAR	.567
Detroit (+5)	8-7	@PHI	@MIN	.517
LA Rams	11-4	@SF	ARI	.500
Philadelphia	9-6	DET	@NYG	.533
NY Giants (+3)	8-7	@NE	PHI	.600
Dallas (-1)	8-7	@BUF	WAS	.733
New Orleans (-1)	7-7-1	CLE	@ATL	.517
Chicago (-6)	7-8	@CIN	GBY	.500
Minnesota (+1)	6-8-1	NYJ	DET	.367

 

The Cardinals (NFC West champs) now have the tiebreaker for the top seed based on common games - adding the Raiders passes the minimum team threshold, and the Commanders lost to them. But they have two conference games left while the Commanders go to Miami, so there's no clinching scenario this week.

 

The Commanders (NFC East champs) can finish no worse than #2, and it won't be decided until next week. Depending on how the last two weeks fall out, the tiebreaker could be common opponents, conference record, or strength of victory.

 

The Buccaneers (NFC South champs) have clinched the division and the #3 seed. They are 3 games away from division leaders on both sides, so they are the second team (after Denver) to know their exact playoff position.

 

The Lions lead the NFC North after an incredible run, and can clinch it this week with a win AND a Bears loss.

 

The Rams have clinched the #5 seed. They can't catch the Cardinals in the division, but are 2 games in front of the Eagles with the conference record tiebreaker in hand.

 

The Eagles can clinch a wild card with a win AND EITHER a Giants loss OR a Cowboys loss. Their 1-4 division record means they're in a bad place for tiebreakers, so they need to have the better record.

 

The Giants currently have the final slot over the Cowboys thanks to strength of victory (0.458 vs 0.397), but in a crowded division the best way forward is to keep winning.

 

The Cowboys still control their own destiny, because the Giants and Eagles play each other in week 18 and any outcome gives Dallas a narrow path forward. Their playoffs start now; win and they're in.

 

The Saints are on the outside looking in after a 4th straight loss. A half game behind the Giants and Cowboys, they don't need all that much help...if they can stop the slide.

 

The Bears have lost 5 straight, but have slightly better prospects due to being only a game behind the Lions and owning a H2H sweep over them. If they can start winning again, they'd just need the Lions to drop one game and they can win the North.

 

The Vikings won a key divisional game, meaning they too could still win the NFC North with two wins, an additional Lions loss, and a Bears loss. It's technically possible for them to earn a wild card too, due to how dense the NFC playoff field is an how many teams within it play each other.

 

The Falcons have been eliminated. The Giants have a H2H victory and the Cowboys have a better conference record, so they can't finish higher than ninth.

 

Good luck to all competitors in week 17!

[Minnow]

I'd be happy to have a winning season in all honesty