SimNFL Playoff Race - Week 16

[Piercewise1]

Scenario Maker link

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Team	Record	Week 16	Week 17	Week 18	Opp Win %
Denver	14-0	SF	KCY	@LAC	.333
Jacksonville	12-2	IND	@LAC	HOU	.262
Cincinnati	11-3	GB	CHI	@CLE	.440
New England	8-6	CLE	NYG	@BUF	.583
Cleveland	9-4-1	@NE	@NOL	CIN	.631
Tennessee	10-5	bye	@PIT	IND	.286
LA Chargers (+1)	8-6	@KCY	JAX	DEN	.738
Las Vegas (-1)	8-6	ARI	@SEA	KCY	.464
Buffalo	8-6	@WSH	DAL	NE	.690
Pittsburgh	7-7	@TBY	TEN	@BAL	.500
Miami	6-8	NYJ	WAS	@NYJ	.452

Opp Win % refers to upcoming opponents only

 

The Broncos (AFC West champs) cleared their last hurdle in dramatic fashion, and should be huge favorites to win their last 3 games and finished an undefeated regular season.

 

The Jaguars can clinch the South win a win OR a Titans loss. They have the easiest remaining schedule in the conference and should cruise to the #2 seed.

 

The Bengals can clinch the North with a win AND a Browns loss. Getting higher than the #3 seed seems unlikely, but a home playoff game is in sight.

 

The Patriots have an easier schedule than the Bills, but the first two tiebreakers (H2H and Division Record) will equalize if they lose to them in week 18 so they'll need wins and help to clinch before then.

 

The Browns can clinch a playoff spot win a win AND losses by any two of Chargers/Raiders/Bills. Escaping the Bears in the final minute was a huge step in the right direction.

 

The Titans can clinch a playoff spot with a win, but will need to wait until next week due to a late bye. The Steelers should have a lot to play for; the Colts not so much.

 

The Chargers have moved into the final wild card spot, but remember how their schedule ends (JAX, DEN). They need to win now.

 

The Raiders get a humbled but dangerous Arizona squad next, and then the games get easier. No need to panic - yet.

 

The Bills have a tough upcoming slate in Washington and Dallas, but as long as they stay within striking distance of the Patriots they have reason to hope.

 

The Steelers remain in the mix, but face the division leading Buccaneers next and then get the Titans off a bye. It's going to be tough.

 

The Dolphins are alive and get their first of two late games against the Jets to stay in the hunt. They've done their job so far, but a lot of dominoes still need to fall in just the right way.

 

 

 

 

 

Team	Record	Week 16	Week 17	Week 18	Opp Win %
Washington (+1)	13-1	BUF	@MIA	@DAL	.524
Arizona (-1)	13-1	@LV	TBY	@LAR	.667
Tampa Bay	10-4	PIT	@ARI	CAR	.548
Chicago	7-7	@MIN	@CIN	GBY	.440
LA Rams	10-4	ATL	@SF	ARI	.476
Philadelphia (+2)	9-6	bye	DET	@NYG	.500
Dallas	8-6	@NYG	@BUF	WAS	.667
New Orleans (-2)	7-6-1	@HOU	CLE	@ATL	.417
Detroit (+1)	7-7	@BAL	@PHI	@MIN	.393
NY Giants (-1)	7-7	DAL	@NE	PHI	.581
Atlanta	6-8	@LAR	HOU	NOL	.464
Minnesota	5-8-1	CHI	NYJ	DET	.405

 

 

The Commanders (NFC East champs) are in first over the Cardinals due to their conference record, but it's 11-0 vs 10-0 so the race for that bye is far from over. The Dolphins are the only team on either schedule below .500.

 

The Cardinals can win the West with a win OR a Rams loss. There may not be any more undefeated opponents, but that doesn't mean the road will be easy.

 

The Buccaneers can win the South with a win OR a Saints loss. They could be locked into the #3 seed as early as next week.

 

The Bears have seen a 3.5 game lead evaporate in the last month. They still have the sweep over the Lions and two winnable division games to go, but they've lost any margin for error and are heading in the wrong direction.

 

The Rams remain a win away from clinching a playoff berth after that collapse against the Giants. They just beat the Bears recently, so that #5 spot isn't looking too bad.

 

The Eagles get a week off after that close victory, and will still control their own destiny no matter what happens. Having that extra win could be big in a parity-laden NFC wild card race.

 

The Cowboys have won 6 of their last 8 games, with the only losses coming against the top conference seeds. The remaining schedule is tough but they're getting hot at the right time.

 

The Saints meanwhile have dropped 3 straight and are now on the outside looking in. Houston could be a great place to right the ship.

 

The Lions benefited from a trio of home games to get back to .500, but now they finish with a 3-week road trip. Getting to a 4th on wild card weekend will be tough, but the games are winnable.

 

The Giants have won 4 of the last 5 to somehow stay alive, but there's a logjam of teams in front of them and the ending schedule is one of the hardest.

 

The Falcons dropped a home game against the Panthers and now their season looks likely to end in week 18. But the math says there's a way in, and it starts with beating the Rams on the road.

 

The Vikings remain in striking distance of a wild card despite a 3rd consecutive loss, and could even win the NFC North crown (technically). I still wouldn't bet on either.

 

Good luck to all competitors in week 16!