2022 Preseason Conference Preview: American Athletic Conference

[Ezaco]

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE

Ooh boy. This conference actually looks like it might be pretty scary. We've already seen chaos in the football season, and the basketball looks like it might be just as crazy. Are you in the conference? I almost pity you...

 

ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS

 

Starting off strong with the Army, and potentially one of the most dangerous teams in this conference. The Black Knights feature a Sophmore 5 star Forward in Jack Beckmann. When's the last time the Army had a 5 star? Since 1999.... never. In fact Army has never had a player ranked in the top 400. They then follow that up with Freshman Forward John Chastek as a 4 star who, while not a great shooter, is set to be a monster in the paint. Beckmann himself is a eyes-on player to be one of the best players in the conference, if not the whole nation.

 

Even behind those two headliners, Army development has turned a nice set of upperclassmen into really good ballplayers. Michael Copper, a Junior 3-star Guard from Oklahoma, is going to be battling Beckmann for those POTY honors, if his liability on defense doesn't cost the Black Knights games. There's not a ton of long-range shooting here for Army, but mid range and in the paint... watch out.

 

Season Prediction: NCAA Tournament - Sweet 16

 

CINCINNATI BEARCATS

The Bearcats are in a rough spot. They should be led by the Senior Center down low, towering a 7'1", David Fidler. But he can only do so much alone. Elsewhere it's not clear where the Bearcats are going to find production outside of the paint, and scoring under the basket alone isn't going to win you games. Once they step beyond those blocks they start to look lost. Cincinnati is going to have to put in the work on the recruiting trail to be competitive next season and replace their 3 graduating seniors, but don't expect them to be much this season.

 

Season Prediction: Misses NCAA Tournament

 

:east carolina: EAST CAROLINA PIRATES

Carolina is a mixed bag. Upperclassmen Centers Charles Miller and Ryan Dudley are going to absolutely dominate the paint this season. The third center, Mark Wenzel of Hungary, might as well have played volleyball with his swatting prowess. But you can't play all three of them at once. They also have some decent shooters, led by Junior Guard Brian Bruce, but the midrange game for the Pirates is going to be difficult, and defensively they are leaky. Carolina has a lot of potential, but they can just as easily get dominated.

 

Season Prediction: NCAA Tournament - Round of 64

 

:houston: HOUSTON COUGARS

I really wanna like Houston. Any team featuring two seven footers, especially a five star Senior like Thomas Lampke, should be scary. And they probably will be. It might be personal prejudice against Houston for the game against Kentucky a few years ago, but there's something about them... But Houston is a really good team on paper. If they can set their rotations correctly for a porous defense, they have shooters that will absolutely light of the box score all night. Houston isn't the best team in the American... but it's not far from it.

 

Season Prediction: NCAA Tournament - Round of 32

 

:umbc:UMBC RETREIVERS

UMBC looks to be a solid team. Redshirt Senior Cheng Berger is going to keep the scorekeeper on their toes... but on both ends. In fact, UMBC hosts a number of shooters that could truly be excellent - Berger, Blair Stiles, and Derek Ignacio - but they have put all their eggs into their shooting practice. What's left is a defense that is going to be cheering their last goal still while the other team runs it down on them.

 

Season Prediction: Bubble watch

 

:memphis: MEMPHIS TIGERS

Look Memphis is not a bad team. Outside of the conference they will likely do very well. However looking at this roster, and then looking at just even the rosters we've already looked at... It's hard to see where the Tigers excel. Senior Forward Trent Snowden is an awesome player. Outside of that they have a lot of talent that, while promising coming in the door, simply didn't pan out as well as you'd probably hope. Great defensive players are liabilities on offense, and their best shooters are liabilities on defense. This is for a roster featuring a whopping five Seniors, plus another three Juniors. Memphis' time to win is right now, this year, but they don't have the talent to do it unfortunately.

 

Season Prediction: Misses NCAA Tournament

 

:navy: NAVY MIDSHIPMEN

Unfortunately for the Navy, they didn't get the same memo as the Army. Their roster looks more of what you would expect of the service academies: a group of mid-ranked players who have grown and learned to play the game under excellent leadership. Navy's ballhandling will be fantastic to watch - Junior Guard John Barnett will be particularly underappreciated with his handles and shooting ability. Once the ball gets closer to the basket, however, the Midshipmen begin to falter. An inability to rebound and poor defensive skills will be the Midshipmen's downfall.

 

Season Prediction: Misses NCAA Tournament

:smu: SMU MUSTANGS

The basketball gods seem to favor alphabetical order, to an extent. SMU is not a great team. They have special players (Redshirt Sophmore Dustin Cook can shoot across the gym, Freshman seven-footer William Ferraro completely owns the under-basket), but across the spread they are a team with liabilities for each other. SMU will win games, they might even pull some upsets, but don't look for too much special.

 

Season Prediction: Misses NCAA Tournament

 

:southflorida: USF BULLS

South Florida is a case of opposites. Senior Center John Lacaze is a great defender and rebounder, but not a great shooter. Junior Guard Minh Zhu is a great shooter, but not particularly useful below the basket. Those two players, in addition to some promising others, highlight the duality of the Bulls in a microcosm, and for just as many good players they have, they have just as many not very good ones. But this team is young - four freshmen and three sophmores. The future isn't dark for South Florida if they play their pieces right. But this season their roster simply has too much downside.

 

Season Prediction: Misses NCAA Tournament

 

 

:temple: TEMPLE OWLS

Oh Temple. I thought USF was difficult. Raymond Alloway is a special player, and will be for another couple seasons (hopefully... NBA money can't be turned down). Srinivasan Kane is a lights-out scorer, among the best in the country. Craig Johnson likely completes the trifecta of special players for the Owls to make a tournament run. Once you get past those three, however, the scale truly goes downhill... and quickly. But defensively the Owls are formidable, even with terrible-to-spotty shooters outside of the top three. I wouldn't be surprised to see Temple in a deep tournament run... I also wouldn't be surprised to see them near the bottom of the conference. Temple, in many ways, could be the team to look at across the country to understand just how basketball works.

 

Season Prediction: NCAA Tournament - Round of 64

 

:tulane: TULANE GREEN WAVE

Tulane, on the other hand, holds very little mystery. They are, simply, in my opinion, not very good. Now that's not to say they won't do well - Faustino Thatcher is a very special play who will excel and feast. Unfortunately he and fellow lights-out guard Christopher Faz have been surrounded by a lack of talent. This season will be... painful for the Green Wave. Games of pride may be the best you have to hit the recruiting trail with and build for the future.

 

Season Prediction: Misses NCAA Tournament

 

:tulsa: TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANS

Tulsa is an interesting team. They have extremely good talent - Joseph Horn has shown us that recruiting stars should be taken with a grain of salt, Harvey Bridgewater shows us maybe they're accurate-ish, and Peter Cannady is... well he's really good. I actually really like Tulsa's roster. The top 50-60% of their roster is as good as anyone in the conference, maybe the country. Hopefully they can ride that top 60% of the roster far, because the bottom 40% is quite bad. Dreadful, even. If these guys stay out of the way, watch out for Tulsa. If they're forced to share the floor because the top guys have lung issues... Tulsa will be in for a very frustrating time.

 

Season Prediction: NCAA Tournament - Elite 8

 

:ucf: UCF KNIGHTS

UCF resembles very much USF and Temple. Joe Haynes and William Benson are great shooters. Align them with the absolute dominance of force under the basket that is Lincoln Syed and you will have a very scary team. The surrounding talent, though, leaves quite a bit to be desired. Defensively, as well, the Knights are not great, though there are certainly worse teams. I'm cautiously-optimistic for the Knights' season, if the AAC schedule doesn't prove to be an absolute buzzsaw.

 

Season Prediction: NCAA Tournament - Round of 64

 

WICHITA STATE SHOCKERS

I really, really wanted Wichita State to be bad. Does that make me a bad developer? Yes. Do I care? Yes... but not as much when it comes to the Shockers. Unfortunately that isn't the case... Wichita State is good. Like... good. There is no shortage of shooting options, led by Brandon Harris and Johnson Workman, and a trio of absolute lockdown defenders are backed up by a remaining roster of talented defensive players. Oh I so wanted them to fail... but the roster of five Seniors knows their time is this year, right now. And they have a really good chance to take it.

 

Season Prediction: NCAA Tournament - Elite 8... minimum.

[BabaYaga]

Damn....the Shockers are legit.

[Ezaco]

Pick to win conference: Wichita State