2022 NCAAF Week 4 Spreads

[Sarge]

I adjusted the spread calculations a little bit with HFA being taken in mind. It favors the home team a lot less in comparison to previous weeks.

 

**NOTE** - The later the season gets, the more accurate this model becomes. A lot of this is taking last season's body of work into account because I haven't thought of a way to progress/regress everyone to the mean between seasons due to how difficult it is to judge 130 different rosters with outgoing and incoming talent.

 

ARMY at CONN (-3)

BAYL at TEX (-6)

BC at VT (5)

KENT at BGSU (-12)

MRSH at FIU (7)

ND at BYU (-2.5)

RICE at LT (-4)

UNT at UAB (9)

UTSA at USM (7)

VAND at BAMA (-35)

ARK at MSST (-12)

ARST at CCU (5)

AUB at UGA (13)

BALL at TLDO (14)

BUFF at CMU (-19)

CHAR at FAU (-27)

CLEM at GT (-16)

CSU at SJSU (-6)

FSU at LOU (6)

GASO at ULL (-5)

IAST at KANS (4)

MEMP at TLNE (-31)

MISS at LSU (-5)

MTSU at ODU (-24)

NCST at CUSE (21)

NEV at UNLV (-3)

NILL at EMU (3)

NMSU at MASS (-2)

OKLA at TCU (-12)

PNST at TTU (8)

TENN at SOCA (18)

TULS at TEMP (5)

TXST at USA (34)

UCLA at OREG (1)

UHOU at SMU (-10)

UKEN at MIZZ (10)

ULM at TROY (-15)

USC at STAN (-8)

USF at ECU (-14)

UTAH at WAST (-3)

UVA at DUKE (13)

WKU at UTEP (16)

WMU at MIAO (14)

WYOM at FRES (2)

AKRN at OHIO (-5)

CINC at UCF (18)

FLA at TAMU (-22)

GAST at APST (-7)

HAWI at SDSU (-15)

KSST at WVU (11)

MINN at NEB (-1)

NAVY at USAF (-9)

OKST at MICH (8)

PITT at MIAF (14)

UNC at WAKE (3)

UTST at BOIS (10)

ZONA at CAL (3)

AZST at COLO (-15)

ORST at WASH (8)

Edited August 1, 2022 by Sarge

[tsweezy]

Bama by 35 huh? Is this a sim or not

[Sarge]

Bama by 35 against Vanderbilt seems perfectly reasonable for both sim and irl

[Coach123]

The BYU game is at a neutral site

[Curby4]

It's gonna be loud in LAS Vegas at Allegiant Stadium

[Sarge]

Thank you for reminding me. I had to remove Neutral Site as a possibility. It's something I'll try to work on in the off-season to put a NS function into the equation. I will update the spread though and try to isolate the HFA for that game.

 

BYU should be -2 or -3 ish in a neutral setting. After HFA is removed.

[Pumph]

We are a 15-point favorite over an undefeated Hawai'i team?

[Sarge]

Last year's results have a significant weight right now on games. As we get later in the season predictions should grow more accurate.