2022 Nebraska Season Preview

alexfall862 · July 9, 2022

With the season kicking off this week, it's time to take a look at Nebraska and see if there's any hope for the forlorn school in year 2 of the sim!

Year in Review

Offense

A pretty lackluster performance between the trio of Mitchell Weatherly, Francis Guerrero, and Luis Hill left the Nebraska passing offense starting in fits and starts. Only 1 QB had a positive TD:INT rate.

Rushing was in a better bit of shape, with Ariel Pryor notching 1000 yards, though similarly to the passing offense, there was little to celebrate with only 6 rushing touchdowns to the season.

As far as playmakers on the field, Nebraska trotted out an almost entirely senior crew with Chuma Valentine and Eric Watkins account for 1278 of Nebraska's 2104 passing yards. TE Antonio Scott led the big men with 262 yards receiving, showing some potential to make

Defense

Run defense was probably the most respectable part of the team keeping opponents at just north of 130 yards and 3.3 tackles behind the line per game.

The pass defense was almost as anemic as the offense failing it's way to giving up 300 yards a game.

The defense steadied as the season ran on, and did end the season with a string of sub 20 points games, but by that point, there was no recovering from the early season issues, and the Huskers let opponents tally over 24 points per game.

Special Teams

One of the few bright spots for team, Jaydon Looney hit nearly 2/3rds of his punts inside the 20. Serves to reason it was due to so many reps as he kicked nearly 8 per game. Kicking was more along the lines of the rest of the team than his battery-mate, making 13/27 field goals.

Overall

A woeful performance led to a 2-10 record. Last in the division, having lost the head to head against Iowa. The goal for this upcoming season needs to be showing just about any signs of life. Between just about the worst non-AI pass defense in the country and a comically anemic passing offense, there was really little for the Cornhuskers to hang their hat on.

Week	Highlight	Opponent	Huskers	Opponent	NEB MVP	Opponent MVP
Week 0	[attachment=2332:name]	Kansas State	7	15	RB Ariel Pryor \| 24 car 87 yards, 5 rec 63 yards	WR Franmil Higgins \| 9 rec, 184 yards
Week 2	[attachment=2333:name]	Miami (FL)	24	30	FB Scott Tobin \| 17 car 90 yards 1 rec 31 yards	RB Dominic Love \| 31 touches 271 yards 3 TD
Week 3	[attachment=2334:name]	Ohio	0	55	OLB Darren Castellanos \| 6 Solo TKLs 2 TFL	QB Yusei Ascencio \| 34/45 607 yards 5 TD 1 INT
Week 4	[attachment=2335:name]	Purdue	17	38	RB Ariel Pryor \| 17 car 111 yards	TE Devontae McKinney \| 11 rec 207 yards 1 TD
Week 5	[attachment=2336:name]	Michigan State	9	7	DT Chase Hodge \| 7 Solo TKLs 1 ATKL 1 TFL	RB Lucas Mihalik \| 24 car 132 yards 1 TD
Week 6	[attachment=2337:name]	Michigan	14	38	RB Ariel Pryor \| 35 touches 212 yards 2 TDs	QB Jonnu Newton \| 20/33 440 yards 3 TD 1 INT
Week 7	[attachment=2338:name]	Wisconsin	13	38	RB Ariel Pryor \| 34 touches 196 yards	QB Austin Bishop \| 36/52 574 yards 4 TD
Week 8	[attachment=2339:name]	Illinois	13	27	QB Mitchell Weatherly \| 15/26 216 yards 1 TD 1 INT	RB Stacy Moton \| 47 touches 361 yards 2 TD
Week 9	[attachment=2340:name]	Minnesota	20	12	RB Ariel Pryor \| 45 touches 259 yards 1 TD	RB Fish Liggins \| 24 car 125 yards
Week 10	[attachment=2341:name]	Ohio State	6	14	TE Antonio Scott \| 4 rec 42 yards	RB Doug Brothers \| 18 car 115 yards 1 TD
Week 11	[attachment=2342:name]	Northwestern	3	6	QB Mitchell Weatherly \| 25/35 222 yards	RB Pat Cotton \| 21 touches 69 yards
Week 14	[attachment=2343:name]	Iowa	3	17	WR Eric Watkins \| 8 rec 113 yards	RB Stacy Perez \| 46 car 178 yards 2 TD
Average		MOV: -14	10.75	24.75	-	-

Recruiting

With a 12th ranked recruiting class, it's clear the awful performance didn't impact recruit's perception of the future of the program. Led by a pair of electric playmakers in 5 star WRs Ro'Derrick Billings and Justin St. Fleur, Nebraska looks to have a ton of new players joining and earning early playing time - which is not surprising given a 2-10 season.

Signees are below:

First Name	Last Name	Star	Position	Archetype	Height	Weight	Potential
Quinten	Mathieu	3	C	Pass Blocking	6'4"	293	C+
Danny	Henderson	4	CB	Man Coverage	6'1"	194	D+
Brandon	Alvarez	3	CB	Ball Hawk	5'11"	185	C+
Chris	Boshers	3	CB	Ball Hawk	5'10"	191	C+
Jared	Enns	4	DE	Balanced	6'5"	271	C+
Wil	Peko	3	DE	Balanced	6'3"	270	C+
Brandon	Wilson	1	DE	Run Stopper	6'3"	290	C+
Josh	Povse	3	DT	Pass Rusher	6'3"	294	D+
Sam	Ward	4	FB	Receiving	5'11"	222	B
Ruben	Dunn	3	FS	Ball Hawk	5'11"	198	B-
Tom	Goode	3	FS	Run Stopper	6'0"	198	C+
Jalen	Schwartz	4	ILB	Coverage	6'2"	229	C+
Marcos	Alcantara	4	OG	Run Blocking	6'4"	314	D+
Austin	Robinson	3	OG	Pass Blocking	6'4"	299	C+
Daeshon	Whittaker	3	OG	Balanced	6'5"	297	C+
Courtney	Mikell	4	OLB	Coverage	6'2"	234	C+
Mason	Wilson	3	OT	Pass Blocking	6'3"	295	C+
Steven	White	3	QB	Pocket	6'4"	231	C+
Sam	Robinson	3	RB	Receiving	5'9"	199	C+
Austin	Kelly	3	SS	Run Stopper	6'0"	214	D+
Josh	Good	3	TE	Receiving	6'3"	225	B+
Patrick	Hernandez	5	WR	Possession	6'1"	188	C
Ro'Derrick	Billings	5	WR	Route Runner	5'10"	176	D+
Justin	Saint Fleur	4	WR	Possession	6'0"	191	C+
Miguel	Barton	3	WR	Red Zone Threat	6'1"	223	C+

Outgoing Talent

Virtually every player that caught a pass is leaving the team, and most of the players that threw them as well. Given the quality of said passes, though, there is some chance that could be an addition by subtraction. Starters bolded.

Position	First Name	Last Name	Stars	Overall
OT	DeMarcus	Hagens	4	A
FB	Scott	Tobin	4	A
DT	Chase	Hodge	4	A
CB	Christian	Marks	4	A
OG	Maurice	Hedges	3	A
OG	Hunter	Familia	5	A
RB	Ariel	Pryor	3	B
DE	Nick	Ortega	3	B
OLB	Darren	Castellanos	3	B
WR	Chukwuma	Valentine	3	B
FS	Brian	Darling	3	B
QB	Mitchell	Weatherly	3	B
SS	Taylor	Coleman	2	B
WR	Eric	Watkins	3	B
DE	Mason	Recker	3	B
QB	Luis	Hill	3	B
CB	ArDarius	Caratini	2	B
RB	Billy	Palmer	2	B
OT	Andrew	Lopez	2	B
OG	Pedro	Perez	2	B

Nebraska had 2 players drafted and another signed (and then cut) by the Ravens as an UDFA.

Drafted Players

Round

Pick

Player

Team

Position

7

DeMarcus Hagens

Seattle Seahawks

OT

8

15

Chuck Valentine

Tennessee Titans

WR

UDFA

-

Maurice Hedges

Baltimore Ravens

OG

Returning Talent and Outlook

Leading Returning Production (bolded=starter going into 2021)

Position/Player	Production
QB Francis Guerrero	580 yards passing
RB Du'Vonta Almonte	107 yards rushing, 11 receiving
FB Isaiah Robinson	36 yards rushing, 4 yards receiving
WR Orion Guy	8 yards receiving
TE Antonio Scott	262 yards receiving
OL Hunter Familia	12 starts
DE Steven Hall	2 tackles
DT Daric Martin-Oguike	37 tackles
OLB Francis Ohman	3 tackles
ILB Tom Lamb	6 tackles
CB Chris Wilson	12 tackles
S Hercules Mills	4 tackles
K Sylvester Conley	13/27 FG, 13/14 XP
P Jaydon Looney	59 punts inside 20, 14 touchbacks

Position Battles to Watch

QB: Guerrero comes in the 'favorite' to win the job, but with such a dubious track record so far (2:7 TD:INT ratio and a 50% completion rate), we might see some new faces taking snaps in 2022. However, word in camp has it that no one in the QB room has really impressed, and we'll likely see Francis Guerrero win by default as a senior with game experience.

RB: Du'Vonta Almonte returns as the leading rusher, looking to fill the relatively big shoes of the first 1k rusher in school history, but word in camp is that coaches are looking to get Richaun Alsadek and speedster Tyus Edelman on the field as much as possible - and that may come from the RB position. Given that we don't expect to see tremendous growth from the passing offense, how this position goes, the offense goes. One to watch in Week 1.

WR: With essentially every receiver 'worth' playing leaving the team this season (apologies to Orion Guy), we're likely to see a completely new line-up. With open auditions for the 2 starting spots and the slot receiver role, forecasting who is going to start will be like pinning jello to the wall. Expect to see the exciting new freshman 5 star recruits get a chance to earn snaps right away. From reporter's stories, Ro'Derrick Billings has shown out both in practice and in several of the secret inter-squad scrimmages between local programs. As mentioned above, Tyus Edelman is likely to see the field in some fashion no matter what, and receiver is his natural position.

DE: With an unfortunate paperwork issue keeping Chris Niklas off the field, the role starring in the pass rush opposite Steven Hall is completely open. Connor Cozart, Luis Ridley and Tim Zimmerman all have redeeming qualities and are looking to really push hard for the starting role as Nebraska is not known to rotate linemen during the game often.

CB: A roomba with broom taped on top could have done better than the Husker pass defense last year, so we're looking at a low bar to clear for the new players to earn snaps. One such player is Danny Henderson. Though he came into camp a lot slower than tape led coaches to believe, he's shown a tremendous knack for reading receivers and has locked down almost every match-up in camp. That said, the Nebraska receiving corpse corps doesn't inspire much confidence as a point of comparison.

S: Just as with the CB position, there isn't much that could go worse in 2022, but one place to look for optimism is at the safety position, where two underclassmen are pushing for playing time. Sophomores FS Ryan Scott and SS Ian Kelly have picked up the playbook far faster than coaches anticipated and both look to get some looks early in the season both as a reward for their hard work in the film room, and to see how they play in game situations. Rumor in camp is that CB Chris Wilson is also alternating reps with both secondary position groups as he preps to play a more versatile role this year.

2022 Depth Chart

Position

Player

Overall

Year

QB1

Francis Guerrero

A

Sr

QB2

Gleyber Hinojosa

B

Jr

QB3

Bryce Tocci

C

Sr

Position

Player

Overall

Year

RB1

Du'Vonta Almonte

B

Sr

RB2

Richaun Alsadek

B

So

RB3

Jesus Machado

B

Sr

Position	Player	Overall	Year
FB1	Sam Ward	B	Fr
FB2	Isaiah Robinson	C	Jr

Position	Player	Overall	Year
WR1	Orion Guy	B	Sr
WR2	Ro'Derrick Billings	B	Fr
WR3	Patrick Hernandez	B	Fr
WR4	Jalen Escobar	B	Jr
WR5	Brett Sendejo	B	Jr

Position	Player	Overall	Year
TE1	Antonio Scott	B	Sr
TE2	Kyle Basham	B	Jr
TE3	Josh Good	C	Fr

Position	Player	Overall	Year
LT1	Chris Diaz	A	Jr
LG1	Hunter Familia	A	Jr
C1	Alex Callahan	B	Sr
RG1	Enyel Boxberger	A	Sr
RT1	Robert Bell	B	So
LT2	Wes Hoskins	B	Sr
LG2	Patrick Noonan	B	Sr
C2	Yu Gobert	C	Jr
RG2	DJ Acosta	B	(Fr)
RT2	Brennan Are	C	Sr

Position	Player	Overall	Year
LE1	Steven Hall	A	Sr
RE1	Connor Cozart	B	So
LE2	Luis Ridley	B	Jr
RE2	Tim Zimmerman	B	Jr

Position	Player	Overall	Year
DT1	Daric Martin-Oguike	B	Sr
DT2	Tre Cole	B	Jr
DT3	Wyatt Sutton	C	Sr

Position	Player	Overall	Year
LOLB1	Glenn Rodriguez	B	Jr
ROLB1	Francis Ohman	B	Sr
LOLB2	Bruce Feeney	C	(Fr)
ROLB2	Courtney Mikell	C	Fr

Position	Player	Overall	Year
ILB1	Josh Rodriguez	B	Sr
ILB2	Keenan Cruz	B	Jr
ILB3	Cory Johnson	C	So
ILB4	Jalen Schwartz	C	Fr

Position	Player	Overall	Year
CB1	Elijah Guerrieri	B	Jr
CB2	Jaryd Sterling	B	Sr
CB3	Chris Wilson	B	Sr
CB4	Danny Henderson	B	Fr
CB5	Reese Kanoff	B	So

Position	Player	Overall	Year
FS1	Ryan Scott	B	So
SS1	Hercules Mills	B	Sr
FS2	Tyler Cumpton	C	Sr
SS2	Tress Robinson	B	Jr

Position	Player	Overall	Year
K	Sylvester Conley	B	Sr
P	Donnie Gentry	B	Sr
KR	Tyus Edleman	B	So
PR	Richard Alsadek	B	So

Scheme

Offense: On offense, Nebraska showed a willingness to change things up last season, with Scott Tobin appearing as an H Back at times, as well as seeing some option elements work their way into some games. Ultimately, that culminated in the team not really being able to find an identity offensively, but early signs from camp don't inspire much confidence that the Big Red have found exactly what they're looking for.

Defense: The Huskers showed signs of life at times, particularly in run defense. Like on offense, expect the team to play multiple alignments through the season. Unlike offense, the defense can do so as a strength, as the potential front seven pairings look to be at least league average. If the backend can hold up through early contests, we could see more exotic blitz packages start appearing, as there have been some interesting looks teased in practice. None of that will matter if the team can't keep from blowing assignments and leaving players wide open.

Schedule

The schedule next season and per @tsweezy's rankings stacks up with a little home for Nebraska - as just per 'talent', they'll be looking at a potential bowl bid and even a conference championship if everything breaks right as 2 of the hardest conference games are from East opponents, clearing the way for an advantageous tiebreaker situation head to head with West division teams if the schedule goes chalk. Games with a talent advantage bolded.

Week	Opponent	Ranking
Week 1	Northwestern	57
Week 2	at Colorado	63
Week 3	Florida	69
Week 4	Minnesota	89
Week 6	Indiana	78
Week 7	at Rutgers	7
Week 8	at Purdue	120
Week 10	Illinois	27
Week 11	at Kent State	70
Week 12	at Michigan	32
Week 13	Wisconsin	13
Week 14	at Iowa	112
Averages	Nebraska Opponents	61.41
	Nebraska	55

Wrap-Up

Nothing ever does break quite right, even if the rankings are optimistic. With the Husker's uncertainty in scheme and lack of confidence in their signal calling options, it seems like expectations are being tempered for a big bounce-back season - according to those in the know around the program. Coaches are telling their players the key to this season is to win their conference, but privately are telling boosters that they'll take a 6-6 season as a sign that they have a solid foundation to really take off in 2023.