[2022] AFC Preview

[Piercewise1]

And we’re back! Last time I looked at each NFC team’s strongest and weakest position group, so today I’ll be doing the same for the AFC. As before I’ll place each team into one of four tiers and ultimately predict the playoff seeds. Here we go!

 

AFC North

 

 

Best Position Group: Quarterback

 

David Chop (82) is already the highest-rated QB in the AFC, and he’s only 28 with A+ potential. Having him signed for the next 3 years is a huge plus for the franchise, for both the present and the future.

 

Honorable mention to the cornerback tandem of Charles Kling (75) and Juan Vega (74); the Ravens' CB2 is better than a lot of teams’ CB1.

 

Biggest Question Mark: Offensive line

 

2 starters from your player pool and a 4th round center aren’t a lot of assets with which to protect your star quarterback. He and rookie RB James Taylor could have a tough time if their opponents can control the line of scrimmage.

 

Prediction: Growing. A lot of youth that needs to develop on offense and some holes on defense (OLB, S) still to be addressed.

 

 

[Cincinnati Bengals]

 

Best Position Group: Offensive line

 

OTs John Alfred (75) and Richard Farris (72) bookend a line with 4 quality starters, and the Bengals might even kick one inside to guard to make room for 1st overall pick Elijhaa Rader. It’s a monster group up front.

 

Biggest Question Mark: Defensive line

 

Unfortunately, the other side of the ball is filled with unimpressive veterans and 3rd round pick Dustin Blackley, who could see the field sooner rather than later given the competition.

 

Prediction: Rebuilding.

 

 

 

Best Position Group: Linebacker

 

After selecting OLB Larry Bushong (76) and ILB Louis Dell (75) from their pool, the Browns signed OLB Michael Malone (76) in free agency to provide pressure off the edge. They also drafted ILB Juante Casilla in the 4th round.

 

Biggest Question Mark: Cornerback

 

1st round pick Kolton Hayes could find himself starting week 1 given his competition for the role. Good news for him, less so for the team as a whole.

 

Prediction: Competing. They may need to score a lot of points to bail out that defensive backfield, but they have the skill players on offense to pull it off.

 

 

 

Best Position Group: Defensive line

 

DTs Richard Crawford (77) and Robert Berry (74) take up a lot of space in the interior of that line, and you ignore DE Krzysztof Leatherman, aka “Crazy Leather” (69), at your own risk.

 

Biggest Question Mark: Receiver

 

TE Devontae McKinney was unstoppable in his senior year, but can he carry an NFL offense the same way? He may need to.

 

Prediction: Growing. More weapons needed on offense, and time for their two high OL draft picks to develop.

 

AFC East

 

Best Position Group: Offensive line

 

The Bills selected 4 starters from their pool and then drafted OT Marquez Allen 24th overall. He and OT Sung Liu (88) will anchor what should become one of the best lines in the league.

 

Biggest Question Mark: Receiver

 

Fellow 1st rounder Yusei Asencio looked like the most pro-ready QB in the draft, but he doesn’t have a lot of weapons outside of WR Donald Kelly (71). The Bills have a committee of other rostered players to put across from him, including a couple of 5th round rookies.

 

Prediction: Growing. A lot of youth and potential that could be dangerous once it’s realized but hasn’t fully manifested yet.

 

 

 

Best Position Group: Quarterback

 

Dean Hammonds (81) is a star in only his 5th year and has the weapons to be very dangerous: the Dolphins drafted speedy WR Tyson Buss in the 2nd round to go along with veterans Brian Adams (78) and Kenny White (72). Along with a young and fast back in RB Gregory Sellers (66), the offense has all the tools for Hammonds to find success.

 

Biggest Question Mark: Tight end

 

There aren’t a lot of holes in this roster – the Dolphins only have one surefire starter at CB, but they just spent 1st and 2nd round picks at the position and have two great safeties. So I’ll pick on the fact that their tight end's best feature is his name and not his play (Jesus Sanchez [59]).

 

Prediction: Contending. A team capable of going deep into the playoffs, which they will need to do to justify the 2nd highest roster cost in the league.

 

 

 

Best Position Group: Quarterback

 

Gary Freitag (81) is still difficult for defenses to catch, even at 32. He has the speed, smarts, and accuracy to extend the play and give his receivers extra time to get open.

 

Biggest Question Mark: Defensive interior

 

The Patriots have a plethora of talent on the edge, but their DTs and ILBs are role players at best and many have 6+ years under their belts (read: aren’t going to get much better). They addressed the need with 2nd and 4th round draft picks (DT Darin Edwards and ILB Ariel Calderon, respectively), but they might not be week 1 starters.

 

Prediction: Competing. An experienced roster whose window could be closing soon but has the talent to make a run.

 

 

 

Best Position Group: Defensive line

 

Richard Lucia (89) is outstanding off the edge, and both DE Aaron Stokes (68) and DT Russell Garban (67) are third-year players with lots of upside.

 

Biggest Question Mark: Offensive line

 

C John Jones (76) is the lone standout on a line of also-rans. QB Lamar Johnson (76) will need all his scrambling power in the year to come.

 

Prediction: Rebuilding.

 

AFC South

 

 

Best Position Group: Running back

 

RB Hue Khan (71) is young and talented, and rookie FB Ryan Johnson even more so. Look for their play-calling to revolve around these two young backs.

 

Biggest Question Mark: Defensive backfield

 

Houston currently has 8 cornerbacks and 11 (!) safeties on their roster, but none are rated higher than a 59. Hopefully some intense preseason competition causes the best to come to the forefront.

 

Prediction: Rebuilding.

 

 

 

Best Position Group: Receiver

 

The Colts have put their rookie QB in a position to succeed by providing some great targets in WRs James Berendes (78) and Daniel Elswick (72) and TE Kerry Slomba (82). And all have very team-friendly deals that should give them time to gel as a unit.

 

Biggest Question Mark: Defensive backfield

 

This author loves the pick of QB Rashaan Lyons as the future of the franchise, so let’s talk about that pass defense. 2nd round pick Elijah Ellis shows promise, but overall the group doesn’t inspire much confidence.

 

Prediction: Growing. There are big needs and a rookie QB, but plenty of reasons for optimism.

 

 

 

Best Position Group: Defensive backfield

 

All four starters here look like difference makers who can lock down a target and have a nose for finding the ball in the air. They’re led by CB Randy Espino (82), only 26 and already one of the best in the game. Watching them face off against some of the skill groups in this division should make for quite a show.

 

Biggest Question Mark: Offensive line

 

This is a stretch, as they have 3 quality starters and a 1st round OG in Quincy Wile to develop. But with the biggest payroll in the league, you’d expect them to be full of talent. So the real question is: will the return justify the investment?

 

Prediction: Contending. Looks like the road to AFC domination goes through Florida.

 

 

 

Best Position Group: Offensive line

 

The Titan’s O-line is a wealthy of talent and experience, with a combined 37 years in the league and no starter less than 70 OVR. The anchor of the group is C Raul Salazar (81), but there’s skill at every position.

 

Honorable mention to the backfield, where RB John Knighten (80) is joined by FB Todd Thibodeaux (78) for a powerful tandem.

 

Biggest Question Mark: Receiver

 

The team’s acquisition of free agent TE Randy Wright (74) was an immediate improvement, but there’s still not a lot at the wideout position that should scare defenses. Look for the team to lean on the running game when they have the ball.

 

Prediction: Competing. They have a talented but aging roster, so they need to make a deep run before the window closes on some of these veteran players.

 

AFC West

 

 

Best Position Group: Receiver

 

Denver can put a lot of speed on the field at once, with WRs Hector Covarrubias (78) & Barry Madruga (68), TE Carmine Rhodes (81), and receiving RB William Kinley (77). That’s a lot for any defense to cover.

 

Biggest Question Mark: Offensive line

 

While they spent three lower draft picks on linemen, the team will need the awesomely named C Louis Casebeer (77) and OT Derek Dixon (72) to show the young guys the ropes. The unit could be good in time, but currently it looks like a liability.

 

Prediction: Growing. The team made a whopping 11 picks in the draft but will need time to coach them all up.

 

 

 

Best Position Group: Edge

 

The Chiefs went big this offseason, giving fully guaranteed 5-year deals to DE David Cunningham (86), DE Vaughn Johnson (67), and OLB Ramon Hubanks (82) for a total of $154 million. While not all of these are pass rushers exclusively, consider the position accounted for.

 

Biggest Question Mark: Quarterback

 

Free agent pickup Erick Burns (59) could be the week 1 starter, and his primary weapons consist of a blocking TE and a bunch of 59-rated receivers. Hopefully the defense can lead them to a few low-scoring victories.

 

Prediction: Growing. The defense looks great and the running game strong, but overall that offense seems too 1-dimensional to rate them any higher.

 

 

 

Best Position Group: Quarterback

 

James Hixon (77) is a cool-headed pocket QB who always seems to know where receivers James Blanck (79) and Terrence Hoffman (78) are and how to throw them open. If anyone can make enigmatic WR Andrew Richards look like a steal at #31 overall, it’s him.

 

Biggest Question Mark: Offensive line

 

C Sean Duell (71) looks like a winner, but that’s about the extent of it. With no free agents or draft picks to augment the group they could struggle mightily this year.

 

Prediction: Rebuilding. There are simply too many holes in the defense and on the O-line for the team to expect more.

 

 

 

Best Position Group: Defensive backfield

 

The team spent big to bring in free agents FS Lucio Escarcega (85) and CB Alan Laurent (71). Along with CB John Warnock (84) and SS Thomas Rackhorst (75) they form a position group that should confuse quarterbacks and overpower receivers on a consistent basis.

 

Honorable mention to their own receiving corps: WR Keith Davis (78), WR Fernando Owens (71), and TE Sebastian Moore (85).

 

Biggest Question Mark: Offensive line

 

Spending 2nd and 3rd round picks on a guard and center demonstrate the need at those positions, as the team is relying on two high-quality starters (OT Gordon White [77] and OG Ramon Diaz [78]) to do the bulk of the work. That investment should pay off…eventually.

 

Prediction: Competing. There’s talent in every position group and a few outstanding superstars.

 

Playoff prediction

1. Jacksonville
   
2. Miami
   
3. LA Chargers
   
4. Cleveland
   
5. New England
   
6. Tennessee
   
7. Buffalo
   

Final thoughts

• The AFC appears (at first glance) to have a more even distribution of strength across divisions - no ‘group of death’ akin to the NFC East – and a starker contrast between the top 2 tiers and the bottom 2.
  
• The North seems most likely to miss out on the wild card race. I think Cleveland sneaks in as the worst division winner.
  
• The East seems to be the toughest overall, which keeps Miami just out of the top seed. New England gets the top wild card, and the Bills sneak in as well.
  
• The South could be the first division clinched (in the AFC), but Tennessee is still good enough to claim a wild card.
  
• The West will be closer than the seeding suggests, but I think the Chargers pull away late and the Chiefs are the first team out.
  

Are you ready for some football?!

[npklemm]

if jax wins the superbowl, i'm heading on down with some torches

[Minnow]

Weird to think that the Bills are considered young still. I have full intentions to compete this year. Evidence of this is my lack of a 3rd,4th,5th Round picks this next year

[Weeze]

Playoff prediction

1. Jacksonville
   

 

One day this will be real life...