2022 NFL Draft Trade Valuation

[Piercewise1]

We've had two big trades into the top 10 already, so let's compare the costs to one team's draft value chart and see what the numbers say. For this article I'll be using an updated version of Jimmy Johnson's traditional value chart, as developed by Rich Hill of Pats Pulpit. I'm also using the following guidelines:

• Future year picks are discounted 1 round per year
  
• Future year picks (no conditions) include 3 scenarios with different values:
  
  • High: 6th pick in round
    
  • Medium: 16th pick
    
  • Low: 26th pick
    

  [*]Conditional future year picks use slightly different scenarios:

  • High: 26th pick in higher round
    
  • Medium: 6th pick in lower round
    
  • Low: 16th pick in lower round
    

Let's get to it!

 

Indianapolis - Carolina

 

Picks

Indianapolis: 2022 #18, 2023 1st, 2024 1st

Carolina: 2022 #3, 2023 2nd

 

Value Given (H/M/L)

Indianapolis: 514 // 464 // 425

Carolina: 584 // 570 // 559

 

Winner

Indianapolis

 

Analysis

The numbers suggest that two future 1sts was the right price for Indianapolis to move up from 18 to 3. So not only did they not have to pay a premium for a top 5 pick, they actually got a 2nd back as well. Clear edge to Indy on this one.

 

Minnesota - Seattle

 

Picks

Minnesota: 2022 #25, #40, #102, 2023 conditional 3rd

Seattle: 2022 #7

 

Value Given (H/M/L)

Minnesota: 459 // 445 // 439

Seattle: 426

 

Winner

push (but slight edge to Seattle)

 

Analysis

Minnesota paid a small premium (around 4%) to move into the top 10 pre-draft, while Seattle turned a single top-10 pick into four top-100 picks (ok, top-102). A good value trade all around, with slight edge to Seattle based on the premium received and the risk Minnesota took moving pre-draft (are there 7 players they are sure will be worth this price?)

 

UPDATE!

 

Washington - Carolina

 

Picks

Washington: 2022 #173, 2023 1st / 3rd / 6th, SS Vicente Bugarin

Carolina: 2022 #18, #62

 

Value Given (H/M/L)

Washington: 199 // 156 // 123 + a player

Carolina: 371

 

Winner

Washington

 

Analysis

Two very different strategies collide. Washington spent like mad to compete in year 1, and they might not even have the capital for a full draft class in 2023. So they trade away next year's picks and double down on 2022. Carolina has $50M+ still in the bank and now has 5 first rounders in the next two years, presumably waiting for a year of data to better evaluate talent.

 

Still, it's hard to argue that a pick now isn't better than the same pick later. And If Washington is better than middle-of-the-road this year they'll have essentially gained an extra year on a first round pick and traded 3 lower, later picks and an 11-year veteran for an immediate 2nd rounder. I think this trade favors Washington in a big way.

 

Happy Draft Day Eve everyone!

Edited April 22, 2022 by Piercewise1

[subsequent]

Cool analysis!