Recruiting Wrap-up

[tsweezy]

Alright strap yourselves in, this is going to be a long one with lots of tables and graphs. Feel free to only look at the things that say your team did great

 

Also, big thanks to @alexfall862 for organizing a phenomenal recruiting year using only google sheets. A lot of hours must have gone into it, and I for one am very appreciative.

 

Let's start off with what I used to base alot of my methodology on. I assigned each recruit a rating which correlates to what I thought their junior year overall rating would be. So when you see average ratings: That is directly what I would expect the average overall to be based on my guess as to their starting skill (fed by starting overall and star rating) and 2 years of progressions based on their potential. So these ratings DO TAKE POTENTIAL into heavy account. To the point that it was probably too much, as it gives a 3 star with B+ potential the same grade as a 4 star with C+ potential. I honestly should have put a little more weight into stars as I have made these graphs showing the likelihood of different star-potential combinations becoming a B or A overall player in their junior/senior year. These numbers just come from all players on rosters this year.

 

 

As you can see: 5 stars are VERY good. As you can see, there is only 1 current 5-star upperclassmen who is not an A overall player.

Conversely, there are NO current 3 star A overall juniors, no matter how high their potential, whereas you can see the increasing likelihood of a 4 star hitting that threshold depending on their potential. By senior year, it does seem like the A and A+ potential guys break even with the 4 star C / C- potentials, but this is what informs a lot of my opinions.

 

Now let's go to a few graphs:

First: Average recruiting class by conference

Not so unexpected here with the SEC leading the way, closely followed by the Sun Belt. Not much of a P5 - G5 split.

 

Next: a little table about affinities

Number of Affinities	Number of teams	Average Score
0	29	722.9827586
1	13	858.3076923
2	17	808
3	7	721.5714286

 

The 3 star average is heavily skewed by 2 or 3 of those 7 teams going inactive, but it does look like the single affinity schools fared the best, and adding additional affinities was not overpowered in the end (although having no affinities was still a handicap).

 

Next: A breakdown of schools that I thought had the best recruiting class at each position (and a special mention to Michigan for recruiting 7 QBs. 1 of them has to pan out right?!?!)

 

Position	Best	2nd Best	3rd Best	Special Mention
C	Houston	North Carolina	Boise
FB	Nebraska	Washington State	Utah
K	Duke	Colorado State	Bowling Green
P	Washington State	Marshall	Air Force
QB	Tennessee	Boise State	North Carolina	Michigan
FS	UCLA	LSU	UNLV / Houston
SS	Navy	Ohio State	Arizona
TE	SMU	Oklahoma State	Kansas
RB	Washington	Penn State	Tennessee
CB	Bowling Green	Texas State	UNLV
DE	Penn State	Tennessee	Oklahoma State
DT	Tennessee	Tulsa	Houston
ILB	Baylor	Texas State	Purdue
OG	Washington State	FSU	Houston
OLB	WMU	SMU	Tulsa
OT	Memphis	Tennessee	LSU
WR	Nebraska	Michigan	TAMU

 

 

Next: When you see these class scores this is all using the official 247 formula where top-recruits are weighted more heavily: As in the 10th best recruit only contributes 2/3 the value of the best recruit and drops to 1/2 by recruit 15 and 1/6 by recruit 25 (so having your 20-25th best recruits by a tiny bit better isn't as important as having more star power at the top)

 

This graph shows the final 247 scores for all user schools AND shows their scores at weeks 5, 10, and 15 to see how the class trended throughout the year.

 

It looks very busy in aggregate, but I think it's plenty digestible when focusing on an individual school.

 

Next: A graph of average potential by recruiting class

 

Here, the potential directly corresponds to how much their overall is "expected" to increase each year. A C is 4, a B is about 5.5, and an A is 7

 

Those are all the major charts. I have plenty more info if anybody has a particular request. Also am still going to do individual class grades for the SEC and those who requested it on my other post

 

Below is going to be a very large table with a whole lot of numbers to look at if you're interested.

 

School	Conference	Num Affinities	Num B and up Potential	Average Potential	Num 2 Stars	Num 3 Stars	Num 4 Stars	Num 5 Stars	Top-10 recruits score	Top 25 Recruit score	247 Class Score	ESPN Rating	Rivals Rating	247 Rank	Num Recruits	Average Croot Rating
Tennessee	SEC	2	7	4.76	0	6	18	1	496	1125	456.6408559	2073	3155	1	25	45
Texas A&M	SEC	1	8	5.12	0	13	12	0	463	1077	418.0236232	2005	2604	2	25	43.08
Bowling Green	MAC	1	9	4.76	0	10	14	1	463	1071	415.6734789	2052	2840	3	25	42.84
Penn State	B1G	1	6	4.76	0	16	7	2	471	1063	414.6732588	2003	2598	4	25	42.52
Houston	AAC	0	17	5.5	2	14	8	0	464	1062	414.5760491	1926	2133	5	25	42.48
Ohio State	B1G	2	14	5.6	0	19	6	0	450	1062	404.2540419	1972	2231	7	25	42.48
UNLV	Mountain West	0	8	4.82	0	11	14	0	456	1068	410.5725153	2048	2643	6	25	42.72
Kentucky	SEC	0	9	5.06	0	15	10	0	451	1054	400.5230474	2006	2451	9	25	42.16
Nebraska	B1G	1	2	4.3	0	15	7	2	460	1030	393.8439976	1977	2543	12	25	41.2
Missouri	SEC	1	11	5.02	0	15	10	0	449	1059	402.4893138	1995	2392	8	25	42.36
San Diego State	Mountain West	2	12	5.28	2	15	8	0	447	1047	397.1450584	1961	2213	10	25	41.88
Virginia	ACC	1	6	4.88	1	16	8	0	448	1038	391.338748	1952	2355	13	25	41.52
Baylor	Big 12	2	14	5.36	2	18	3	2	447	1045	394.8790562	1947	2242	11	25	41.8
Arizona	PAC	1	23	6.02	6	13	3	0	445	1016	382.8540726	1807	1575	16	25	40.64
LSU	SEC	2	6	4.51	2	13	10	0	446	1014.5	380.8289545	1986	2400	18	25	40.58
Kansas	Big 12	0	9	4.96	0	19	6	0	427	1017	371.3054178	1959	2225	22	25	40.68
North Texas	C-USA	0	10	5	4	15	6	0	438	1016	377.2567992	1896	2134	19	25	40.64
Boise State	Mountain West	0	5	4.53	2	17	5	1	431	999.5	365.0623298	1920	2256	28	25	39.98
Georgia	SEC	2	15	5.54	5	12	6	0	435	1000	368.552195	1876	1827	26	25	40
Duke	ACC	3	14	5.4	1	20	4	0	438	1031	383.4190849	1919	2060	15	25	41.24
Purdue	B1G	0	13	5.3	3	16	5	0	433	1003	371.2740473	1909	1991	23	25	40.12
Oregon	PAC	0	5	4.75	1	11	11	0	436	977	370.044291	1903	2381	24	24	40.70833333
Navy	AAC	2	10	5	5	16	3	1	441	1008	375.0828815	1896	1860	20	25	40.32
Texas State	Sun Belt	0	1	4.42	0	19	4	2	435	1016	373.2703428	1966	2464	21	25	40.64
Tulsa	AAC	3	19	5.729166667	2	20	2	0	438	1000	381.6385343	1830	1834	17	24	41.66666667
Miami	ACC	2	12	5.26	1	13	7	0	427	1000	366.3464443	1864	1994	27	25	40
Arkansas	SEC	2	1	4.452380952	0	15	5	1	433	859	346.2971205	1648	2000	37	21	40.9047619
UCLA	PAC	3	0	4.06	0	17	6	2	426	997	360.3607413	1980	2583	30	25	39.88
Minnesota	B1G	0	6	4.53	4	11	10	0	415	982.5	350.1557855	1946	2344	36	25	39.3
Western Michigan	MAC	0	12	5.34	5	15	2	1	427	984	356.1194737	1848	1739	33	25	39.36
Wisconsin	B1G	3	18	5.94	11	9	3	0	426	959	341.2403124	1787	1406	40	25	38.36
Stanford	PAC	3	12	5.46	7	15	2	1	429	1010	368.6753725	1857	1817	25	25	40.4
Utah State	Mountain West	0	12	5.775	0	12	5	1	441	839	354.971847	1553	1758	35	20	41.95
SMU	AAC	2	12	5.36	7	11	4	1	432	978	355.6933062	1834	1783	34	25	39.12
Washington State	PAC	0	12	5.694444444	4	9	4	1	452	753	334.9767731	1381	1447	42	18	41.83333333
Colorado	PAC	0	3	4.386363636	0	14	7	1	423	887	342.9108937	1760	2278	38	22	40.31818182
Louisville	ACC	0	11	5.12	4	18	3	0	427	998	363.2001607	1885	1879	29	25	39.92
Arizona State	PAC	0	12	6.107142857	0	13	1	0	430	588	275.1865417	1089	1113	53	14	42
Ball State	MAC	0	13	5.1	4	12	5	0	421	963	342.2033109	1839	1730	39	25	38.52
Memphis	AAC	0	10	5.53125	3	10	3	0	436	664	300.5370327	1213	1241	50	16	41.5
Utah	PAC	0	13	5.375	8	9	5	0	432	920	339.6425495	1759	1588	41	24	38.33333333
North Carolina	ACC	1	6	4.875	1	7	7	1	466	701	333.7684081	1269	1747	43	16	43.8125
Texas Tech	Big 12	0	1	4.4375	0	17	7	0	424	968	357.9376364	1877	2308	32	24	40.33333333
New Mexico	Mountain West	1	16	6.026315789	6	8	3	0	431	759	316.0422822	1375	1176	45	19	39.94736842
Oklahoma State	Big 12	1	3	4.543478261	0	16	7	0	432	934	357.9457552	1815	2120	31	23	40.60869565
Central Michigan	MAC	1	24	6.28	11	3	0	0	389	882	284.3049593	1577	555	52	25	35.28
Clemson	ACC	2	5	4.842105263	0	18	1	0	408	757	306.1118551	1447	1497	47	19	39.84210526
California	PAC	2	0	4.25	0	15	5	0	406	785	307.4199625	1558	1821	46	20	39.25
Florida State	ACC	2	11	5.453125	1	10	5	0	454	686.5	320.5270858	1258	1440	44	16	42.90625
West Virginia	Big 12	0	2	4.236842105	0	13	6	0	410	749	301.803838	1503	1842	49	19	39.42105263
Air Force	Mountain West	2	2	4.116666667	0	4	9	2	448	640.5	302.10504	1243	2124	48	15	42.7
Michigan	B1G	2	10	5.208333333	1	16	6	1	451	1001	389.3818833	1875	2246	14	24	41.70833333
Kansas State	Big 12	0	4	4.964285714	0	6	8	0	445	604	290.869535	1141	1545	51	14	43.14285714
Syracuse	ACC	1	4	5	0	4	7	0	441	482	244.5560058	904	1234	54	11	43.81818182
Toledo	MAC	0	10	6.041666667	1	11	0	0	423	501	240.249074	911	855	55	12	41.75
Colorado State	Mountain West	0	11	6.454545455	2	7	0	0	409	440	206.9760979	780	585	57	11	40
Tulane	AAC	2	6	5.85	3	3	3	1	444	444	231.7314202	777	967	56	10	44.4
Marshall	C-USA	1	0	4.285714286	0	4	2	1	289	289	145.2710751	565	805	58	7	41.28571429
Washington	PAC	2	4	5.916666667	1	3	2	0	267	267	144.5710717	456	526	59	6	44.5
USC	PAC	3	0	4.5	0	5	0	0	195	195	93.7497722	376	375	60	5	39
Nevada	Mountain West	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	76	76	35.96004441	151	150	64	2	38
Virginia Tech	ACC	0	0	3	0	0	2	0	78	78	37.95782466	167	334	63	2	39
TCU	Big 12	3	0	4.125	0	1	3	0	162	162	81.41112178	335	474	61	4	40.5
Maryland	B1G	0	2	5.375	0	2	0	0	143	143	62.60516524	255	150	62	4	35.75

[alexfall862]

Now let's go to a few graphs:

First: Average recruiting class by conference

 

 

 

Is that some Sun Belt Fun Belt action going on there?

[Sarge]

Thanks for this tremendous write up. This is most likely going to impact my recruiting plan next year