Recruiting Insights Week 19

[tsweezy]

This is it. The last week. It's been a fun ride, and we're very near the end. There are already 4 schools who have completed classes, and their ratings will not change from this (UVA, UGA, LSU, Houston). With that said, this is the week for the schools with unfilled classes to start hoovering up the 2 and 3 stars they need to complete their class. Good luck to all!

 

Instead of expected stars to grade the class, I have given each player a "rating" which should be an estimate of how good they will be as a Junior. This takes into account their overall and star rating for initial rating, and a theoretical progression over 2 years based on potential. This should hopefully strike a balance between high potential players who may end up really good, but only for a year or 2 vs. instant contributors with a lower ceiling. For some ballpark ranges, 5 stars are around 50-55 points, 4 stars and good 3 stars are around 40-50 and an "average" 3 star recruit is 38 or 39 points.

 

To get the overall score, just add up the players you're in solo lead for plus 40% of the stars you're in a battle for (so if you're the only name on a 4 star, a 3 star, and battling for a 5 star you get 9 expected stars) .

 

As we get to the home stretch, these "projections" are going to start looking more and more like the committed rankings. However, it's still nice to see how things would look if every croot signed today.

 

So red dots are just the sum score of the top-25 recruits, blue dots are all recruits, and yellow is the 247 score which assigns a much higher weight to your top recruits and very little to how good your 25th best recruit is.

 

 

Schools with bigger jumps to the yellow are classes with more "high-end" talent (i.e. UNLV and North Texas have similar scores, but UNLV has much higher 247 scoring. That indicates they have more great recruits and also more "worse" recruits).

 

 

While this graph is for sure the messiest to read given how clumped it is, I think it does a good job of showing which schools are where on the quality vs. quantity of recruits as we get ready to wrap up the cycle.

 

Right means better recruits, up means more of them.

 

And actually, that's all I've got for this week. There will be a TON of autopsies and delving into recruiting results after next week, so this should be enough to tide everyone over I hope! Good luck to all!

[subsequent]

The fact that we have only 4 schools with a completed class after week 19 feels a bit odd to me.

 

Should classes be filled out at week 20? Or should they be filled out earlier?

 

I guess the better thing to figure out is what the avg class size is right now at week 19.

 

Saying that, very upset with how things have gone with my class. Mostly just the fact I missed week 19 like a dumb dumb. I think I was not aggressive enough with my class. Decent quality, but too low of quantity, imo. Time will tell. It's just the first year, but I think we've definitely learned a ton in terms of optimal (so far) strategy.

[Minnow]

I have players that are overlooked we are the bad news bears of football

[SageBow]

Utah ahead of Utah State, as god intended.