Recruiting Insights Week 18

[tsweezy]

The penultimate post! There are only 2 weeks to go until these become one and the same with the final class rankings.

 

Instead of expected stars to grade the class, I have given each player a "rating" which should be an estimate of how good they will be as a Junior. This takes into account their overall and star rating for initial rating, and a theoretical progression over 2 years based on potential. This should hopefully strike a balance between high potential players who may end up really good, but only for a year or 2 vs. instant contributors with a lower ceiling. For some ballpark ranges, 5 stars are around 50-55 points, 4 stars and good 3 stars are around 40-50 and an "average" 3 star recruit is 38 or 39 points.

 

To get the overall score, just add up the players you're in solo lead for plus 40% of the stars you're in a battle for (so if you're the only name on a 4 star, a 3 star, and battling for a 5 star you get 9 expected stars) .

 

As we get to the home stretch, these "projections" are going to start looking more and more like the committed rankings. However, it's still nice to see how things would look if every croot signed today.

 

So red dots are just the sum score of the top-25 recruits, blue dots are all recruits, and yellow is the 247 score which assigns a much higher weight to your top recruits and very little to how good your 25th best recruit is.

 

 

As you can see, there are schools with drops from blue to red as their 26th and onwards recruits are truncated. Schools with bigger jumps to the yellow are classes with more "high-end" talent (i.e. Penn State and Boise State have similar scores, but PSU has much higher 247 scoring. That indicates they have more great recruits and also more "worse" recruits).

 

Next up: Average recruit rating vs. Overall class score

 

 

Right means better recruits, up means more of them.

 

And lastly: One more comparing stars vs. potential.

Somewhat self-explanatory: Higher up means better potential, and more right means more stars. Size of the bubbles correlates to number of recruits.

 

Andddd that's a wrap! Next week is the last one, and then maybe I'll try to make a visualization of how the scores have changed week to week