2021 Season SOS / True Win %

[Sarge]

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls of all ages. With the fantastic help (and heavy excel/google sheets lifting) of @alexfall862 we finally have some advanced metrics in place for you, our loyal readers, to follow along. This post will cover the season's Regular season results and information and serve as a guide on how to decipher these tables and metrics to find out how much our teams actually do suck! Without further ado, let's get started.

 

Note: There will be a LOT of pictures, please try to hang in there!

 

Round 1 Adjustment(ADJ) / Rank ADJ1

This column is the first round of win percentage adjusted against the team's opponent's win percentage. This is a better indication of if a team overperformed or underperformed. A positive Adjustment Round means that their schedule of opponents was more difficult than the mean and are therefore rewarded for it. A negative percentage score indicates the opposite and drops a team's "Raw" Win% to more accurately reflect their performance. This column is only a means to an end to get us a more accurate representation of our best and worst teams.

 

Round 2 ADJ / Rank ADJ2 (AKA TRUE WIN %)

This column is the previous one mentioned, just ran a second time! What this does is now take the entirety of the refined win percentages and pits them all against each other again. Once again, positive ADJ scores/%s are good! Negative %s are underperformances. We will call this statistic moving forward a team's "True Win Percentage".

 

Raw to ADJ Change

This column shows how much a team out-performed their actual Raw Win% based upon how difficult or easy their schedule was. Nebraska, for example, had the second highest Raw to ADJ2(True) change at 22.28% meaning their two wins may have ended up as colossal upsets! Wins also do not directly tie into this metric though!! Our two 0-12 teams, TTU and UTEP were 8th and 9th respectively in their Raw to True changes, meaning their schedules had to have been oppressive.

 

Rank Change Raw to ADJ 2

This is just a more digestible metric. In Rank RAW, it ranks all the teams according to their win Raw Win percentage, the Rank Change between Raw to ADJ 2 just re-stacks them and shows how much a team actually achieved against their schedule as opposed to their Raw Win %.

 

Strength Of Schedule (SOS) RANK!!!

This is the column many people, including pollsters are going to be most curious about. The Strength of Schedule is directly tied to Round 2 ADJ and shows how tough/easy a team had during its regular season navigation. The smaller the number, the more difficult the schedule.

 

--------

 

For the sake of not nuking this thread with forty screen-grabs, I'm only going to post the SOS Rankings Filter but will show all columns and their information. If you're comfortable with me posting all the columns sorted, I can do that in the future.

 

Stay tuned for an ELO System post!!

 

 

 

If you have any questions, let me know!

[subsequent]

Michigan has a raw rank of 69.

 

Nice

[alexfall862]

Kentucky ain't played NOBODY

[rabidsnowman]

Virginia, Alabama, Tennessee, Mississippi State all would like a word with you.