Recruiting Insights Week 16

[tsweezy]

New charts every week!

 

Instead of expected stars to grade the class, I have given each player a "rating" which should be an estimate of how good they will be as a Junior. This takes into account their overall and star rating for initial rating, and a theoretical progression over 2 years based on potential. This should hopefully strike a balance between high potential players who may end up really good, but only for a year or 2 vs. instant contributors with a lower ceiling. For some ballpark ranges, 5 stars are around 50-55 points, 4 stars and good 3 stars are around 40-50 and an "average" 3 star recruit is 38 or 39 points.

 

To get the overall score, just add up the players you're in solo lead for plus 40% of the stars you're in a battle for (so if you're the only name on a 4 star, a 3 star, and battling for a 5 star you get 9 expected stars) .

 

This week the main chart is changing slightly. Now that a lot of classes are filling up and in the lead for > 25 recruits, I'm using scores based only on top-25 croots.

So red dots are just the sum score of the top-25 recruits, blue dots are all recruits, and yellow is the 247 score which assigns a much higher weight to your top recruits and very little to how good your 25th best recruit is.

 

REMINDER THAT THIS IS NOT A PROJECTION OF HOW CLASSES WILL FINISH, RATHER IT SHOWS WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF EVERYBODY SIGNED RIGHT NOW

 

 

Lots of new info to look at here. But the top has stayed with mostly a similar group. You may notice Penn State with a massive 247 score, their top-6/7 recruits are better than anybody elses top 6/7 so they get a big bonus on the high end from that.

 

Next: A chart comparing class score, to the average ranking of recruits:

 

 

Right means better recruits, up means more of them.

 

Next: A breakdown of who is going after potential vs. who is going after star power

Here you see Central Michigan going after a lot of B and A potential guys, regardless of if they're 2 or 3 stars, with a much smaller spread for everyone else. Time will tell which method is more successful.

 

Next is a fun one: Average recruit distance from campus

 

As you may expect, California schools make up the top (and bottom) of this metric.

 

Lastly, a quick revisit of which conference schools have the best average classes.

A pretty resounding lead for the SEC, and I think in future years this will provide the bedrock for them to get 3 or 4 teams into the playoffs to come.

 

Those are all the charts I have for this week! Only 4 weeks left to recruit so better get those good noodles in!

[Rocketcan]

As always, excellent work!

[tsweezy]

You're not just saying that cause you're now #1 in a metric are you :thonk3D: