Recruiting Insights Week 11

[tsweezy]

After last week's crazy number of commitments, this week was a little bit slower. In addition, as teams cast their gaze elsewhere to some degree, there was the biggest shakeup in the last ~5 weeks in terms of projected finishes (although a much smaller change than I expected).

 

Instead of expected stars to grade the class, I have given each player a "rating" which should be an estimate of how good they will be as a Junior. This takes into account their overall and star rating for initial rating, and a theoretical progression over 2 years based on potential. This should hopefully strike a balance between high potential players who may end up really good, but only for a year or 2 vs. instant contributors with a lower ceiling. For some ballpark ranges, 5 stars are around 50-55 points, 4 stars and good 3 stars are around 40-50 and an "average" 3 star recruit is 38 or 39 points.

 

To get the overall score, just add up the players you're in solo lead for plus 40% of the stars you're in a battle for (so if you're the only name on a 4 star, a 3 star, and battling for a 5 star you get 9 expected stars) .

 

This week, the blue dots (and the order of the x-axis) is this weeks expectation, and red is last weeks. An increase means that that school is now listed on more or on better recruits than last week, and a decrease means they lost their lead on recruit(s).

 

 

As you can see, some teams had big shakeups, but the majority stayed roughly constant. Kentucky and Kansas are still leading the way, with CMU, Purdue, and Tennessee rounding out the next cluster before another small drop to the rest of the teams. Virginia had a massive jump this week, vaulting all the way into the projected top-10. Similarly SDSU, Houston, and California also had big weeks, while Tulane jumped out of the cellar for the first time.

 

Conference averages and affinity results are basically the same as last week, so I'm omitting those.

 

That's all for this week! Again, I expected the shake-up this week to be a little bit bigger, but it appears that effect will be stretched out. I'd expect weeks 11-16 to have a lot of jostling, followed by some consolidation and last-minute moves at the end, but I'd be shocked if the top-half moves around significantly after week 16.

 

Any way that's it, hope everyone is a good noodle for next week!:bad noodle:

[subsequent]

Virginia is a boom or bust kind of situation here?

[Sarge]

Coming in currently at #23 feels respectable

[tsweezy]

? Not sure what you mean, they're not in a huge number of battles. I think they just finally put points on a bunch of 3-stars or something

[subsequent]

Oh, I was just looking at the huge delta between likely and class score. I got them confused.

[rabidsnowman]

In hindsight with some things I've noticed, I think those who jumped straight into 5* battles are in a better spot than those like me who chose to build a bunch of 3 and 4 star recruits up slowly. I have a strategy of course, but if I had to do it over again, I'd definitely drop 20/week on 2 players, slow burn a few affinity players, and when those affinities triggered and signed, find some other unclaimed talent. There's an insane amount of unclaimed talent out there even now.

[Sarge]

Definitely took a similar approach, but I didn't know if my roster was ready for me to dump points in excess into 5*s when I was taking in L's during the season like they were on sale.